Match Info

MLS

Date: 22 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Yankee Stadium (New York, NY)

Referee: Villarreal A. (Usa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	MLS Season Pass, SiriusXM FC
World	Apple TV International


	New York City		Inter Miami

	1	X	2
	2.4	3.6	2.65	Watch
	2.2	3.6	2.95
	2.48	3.35	2.88	Watch
	2.49	3.58	2.92
	2.43	3.49	2.82	Watch
	2.3	3.3	2.8
	2.51	3.45	2.92	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.4 ↑ (2.34)	3.48 ↑ (3.45)	2.85 ↓ (2.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

New York City
39.5%

Draw
27.2%

Inter Miami
33.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.5%

27.5%

32%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41%

27.2%

31.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

New York City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

Inter Miami has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for New York City than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Inter Miami than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	12.5%	37.5%

New York City - Inter Miami Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. NY City will win (votes: 4 - 50%). Inter Miami will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for NY City: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
49. Freese M. (G) 24. Gray T. 13. Thiago Martins (C) 5. Trewin K. 22. O'Toole K. 55. Parks K. 10. Moralez M. 21. O'Neill A. 26. Ojeda A. 7. Mercau N. 17. Wolf H.	97. St.Clair D. (G) 17. Fray I. 2. Lujan G. 16. Micael 32. Allen N. 42. Bright Y. 22. Ayala D. 24. Silvetti M. 10. Messi L. (C) 8. Segovia T. 21. Allende T.
Substitutes
38. Baiera D. 29. Carrizo M. 2. Cavallo N. 34. Raul Gustavo 99. Reid S. 30. Romero T. (G) 32. Shore J. 11. Talles Magno 19. Tanasijevic S.	76. Abadia-Reda C. 19. Berterame G. 20. Morales S. 4. Mura F. 56. Pinter D. 34. Rios R. (G) 41. Ruiz D. 88. Shaw A. 9. Suarez L.
Coaches
Jansen P.	Stillitano L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
3', 0 - 1, Lujan G. ⚽,
17', 1 - 1, Mercau N. ⚽,
38', Lujan G. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
53', Micael 🟨,
55', Fray I. 🟨,
55', Allende T. 🟨,
59', 2 - 1, Ojeda A. ⚽, Moralez M. (A), O'Toole K. (A2)
61', Moralez M. 🟨,
61', 2 - 2, Messi L. ⚽,
63', Allende T. ↓, Pinter D. ↑,
74', 2 - 3, Micael ⚽, Allen N. (A),
75', Parks K. ↓, Shore J. ↑,
77', Fray I. ↓, Mura F. ↑,
77', Bright Y. ↓, Berterame G. ↑,
77', Silvetti M. ↓, Ruiz D. ↑,
81', Wolf H. ↓, Talles Magno ↑,
86', Gray T. ↓, Baiera D. ↑,
86', Ojeda A. ↓, Reid S. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, NY City won 0.

Now, both teams are in good form.

Inter Miami may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Inter Miami has had a series of away games.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in NY City: Jones M. (Broken Leg) Martinez A. (Knee Injury) Perea A. (Leg Injury)

There will not play in Inter Miami: Falcon M. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Inter Miami: Reguilon S. (Injury)

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, NY City won 8 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 25:21. (average 1.7:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, NY City won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 9:5. (average 1.5:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- New York City FC
MLS
14.03.26	New York City - Colorado Rapids	3:1 ✺
07.03.26	New York City - Orlando City	5:0 ✺
01.03.26	Philadelphia Union - New York City	1:2 ✺
22.02.26	Los Angeles Galaxy - New York City	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
14.02.26	San Jose Earthquakes - New York City	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13 WWWTL
- Inter Miami
CONCACAF Champions Cup
18.03.26	Inter Miami - Nashville SC	1:1 ✺
MLS
14.03.26	Charlotte - Inter Miami	0:0 ✺
CONCACAF Champions Cup
11.03.26	Nashville SC - Inter Miami	0:0 ✺
MLS
07.03.26	DC United - Inter Miami	1:2 ✺
01.03.26	Orlando City - Inter Miami	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 TTTWW

Latest Head to Head

MLS
29.11.25	Inter Miami - New York City	5:1
24.09.25	New York City - Inter Miami	0:4
22.02.25	Inter Miami - New York City	2:2
21.09.24	New York City - Inter Miami	1:1
30.03.24	Inter Miami - New York City	1:1
Club Friendly
10.11.23	Inter Miami - New York City	1:2
MLS
30.09.23	Inter Miami - New York City	1:1

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