Match Info

Date: 17 April 2022, Sunday


	New York City		Real Salt Lake

	1	X	2
	1.45	4.33	7	Watch
	1.49	4.2	6.25
	1.43	4.25	7.5
	1.44	4.2	6.8
	1.46	4.41	8.27
	1.47	4.2	6.5	Watch
	1.48	4.5	6.6	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.46 ↓ (1.9)	4.3 ↑ (3.62)	6.99 ↑ (3.79)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

New York City
64.6%

Draw
21.9%

Real Salt Lake
13.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.4%

25.9%

24.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.8%

26.7%

24%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

New York City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+15.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in New York City's performance.

Real Salt Lake has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Real Salt Lake might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for New York City than the current prediction. (-13.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with New York City that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Salt Lake than the current prediction. (+10.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Real Salt Lake could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

New York City - Real Salt Lake Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

Super game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 14 and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

NY City has the most likely position - 1 (18.07%), has project points - 55, has currently - 4, has a good chance of playoffs (81%), has a chance of first-round bye (18%), has a small chance of supporters shield (8%), has a small chance of win league (11%).

Salt Lake has the most likely position - 7 (9.27%), has project points - 47, has currently - 12, has a good chance of playoffs (51%), has a very small chance of first-round bye (4%), has a very small chance of supporters shield (1%), has a very small chance of win league (2%).

This event has quality 44, small importance 18, match rating 31. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

NY City has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Salt Lake is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

NY City could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match NY City is absolute favorite.

Last 5 head-to-head matches NY City won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 8-10.

Including matches at home between the teams NY City won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 6-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- New York City FC
CONCACAF Champions Cup
13.04.22	New York City - Seattle Sounders	1:1 ✺
06.04.22	Seattle Sounders - New York City	3:1 ✺
MLS
02.04.22	Toronto FC - New York City	2:1 ✺
19.03.22	New York City - Philadelphia Union	0:2 ✺
CONCACAF Champions Cup
15.03.22	Comunicaciones - New York City	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 TLLLL
- Real Salt Lake
MLS
09.04.22	Real Salt Lake - Toronto FC	2:2 ✺
02.04.22	Colorado Rapids - Real Salt Lake	1:1 ✺
26.03.22	Sporting Kansas City - Real Salt Lake	1:0 ✺
19.03.22	Real Salt Lake - Nashville SC	2:1 ✺
12.03.22	New England Revolution - Real Salt Lake	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.8 TTLWW

Latest Head to Head

MLS
03.08.19	Real Salt Lake - New York City	3:1
11.04.18	New York City - Real Salt Lake	4:0
17.05.17	Real Salt Lake - New York City	2:1
02.06.16	New York City - Real Salt Lake	2:3
23.05.15	Real Salt Lake - New York City	2:0

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