Match Info

MLS

Date: 18 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Yankee Stadium (New York, NY)

Referee: Penso C. (Usa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Canada	Amazon Prime Video
China	QQ Sports
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Italy	Amazon Prime Video
Usa	MLS Season Pass
World	Apple TV, EA Sports FC


	New York City		Seattle Sounders

	1	X	2
	1.86	3.7	3.8	Watch
	1.95	3.7	3.7
	1.9	3.89	3.99
	1.85	3.75	3.89	Watch
	2.01	3.77	3.58	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.91 ↓ (2.09)	3.76 ↑ (3.7)	3.79 ↑ (3.07)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

New York City
49.7%

Draw
25.3%

Seattle Sounders
25.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.5%

25.2%

30.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.6%

25.1%

30.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

New York City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in New York City's performance.

Seattle Sounders has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Seattle Sounders might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for New York City than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with New York City that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Seattle Sounders than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Seattle Sounders could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.5%	4.2%	8.3%

New York City - Seattle Sounders Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: New York City will win (20 of 23 users predict this - 86.96%).
Confidence interval (95%): 73.2% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): New York City will win (12 of 12 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
49. Freese M. (G) 24. Gray T. 34. Raul Gustavo 13. Thiago Martins 80. Haak J. 22. O'Toole K. 17. Wolf H. 8. Perea A. 10. Moralez M. 7. Mercau N. 16. Martinez A.	24. Frei S. (G) 85. Kossa-Rienzi K. 25. Ragen J. 16. Roldan A. 5. Nouhou 6. Joao Paulo 75. Leyva D. 9. Ferreira J. 11. Rusnak A. 10. de La Vega P. 13. Morris J.
Substitutes
29. Carrizo M. 11. Fernandez J. 99. Garfield Reid S. 35. Ilenic M. 26. Ojeda A. 21. O'Neill A. 30. Romero T. (G) 32. Shore J. 19. Tanasijevic S.	21. Baker-Whiting R. 15. Bell J. 37. Brunell S. 95. De Rosario O. 39. Hawkins S. 45. Kingston P. 19. Musovski D. 14. Rothrock P. 26. Thomas A. (G)
Coaches
Jansen P.	Schmetzer B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
24', de La Vega P. ↓, Rothrock P. ↑,
45+2', O'Toole K. 🟨,
45+4', Haak J. 🟨,
45+8', Freese M. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
55', Roldan A. ↓, Bell J. ↑,
55', Joao Paulo ↓, Brunell S. ↑,
61', 0 - 1, Morris J. ⚽, Rusnak A. (A),
61', Moralez M. ↓, Fernandez J. ↑,
62', Wolf H. ↓, Ojeda A. ↑,
62', Raul Gustavo ↓, Shore J. ↑,
64', Rusnak A. 🟨,
77', Gray T. ↓, Ilenic M. ↑,
77', Perea A. ↓, Carrizo M. ↑,
82', 1 - 1, Mercau N. ⚽, Fernandez J. (A), Carrizo M. (A2)
84', Morris J. ↓, Musovski D. ↑,
84', Ferreira J. ↓, Baker-Whiting R. ↑,
87', 1 - 2, Ragen J. ⚽, Leyva D. (A),

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

NY City is Qualified for MLS (Play Offs 1/8~finals)

Seattle is Qualified for MLS (Play Offs 1/8~finals)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, NY City won 2.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

NY City may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

NY City is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in NY City: Cavallo N. (Leg Injury) Jones M. (Broken Leg) Parks K. (Leg Injury)

There will not play in Seattle: Arriola P. (Knee Injury) Gomez Andrade Y. (Hamstring Injury) Kent R. (Muscle Injury) Kim Kee-Hee (Calf Injury) Nouhou (International duty) Roldan C. (International duty)

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, NY City won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:11. (average 1.6:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, NY City won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 7:5. (average 1.8:1.3).

Last Results with these Odds

Seattle Sounders - the odds 3.07 are the expected chance of winning is 30.34%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- New York City FC
MLS
04.10.25	Philadelphia Union - New York City	1:0 ✺
27.09.25	New York Red Bulls - New York City	2:3 ✺
24.09.25	New York City - Inter Miami	0:4 ✺
20.09.25	New York City - Charlotte	2:0 ✺
17.09.25	New York City - Columbus Crew	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 LWLWW
- Seattle Sounders FC
MLS
11.10.25	Seattle Sounders - Real Salt Lake	1:0 ✺
04.10.25	Seattle Sounders - Portland Timbers	1:0 ✺
27.09.25	Seattle Sounders - Vancouver Whitecaps	2:2 ✺
21.09.25	Austin FC - Seattle Sounders	2:1 ✺
16.09.25	Inter Miami - Seattle Sounders	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 WWTLL

Latest Head to Head

CONCACAF Champions Cup
13.04.22	New York City - Seattle Sounders	1:1
06.04.22	Seattle Sounders - New York City	3:1
MLS
03.07.19	New York City - Seattle Sounders	3:0
29.07.18	Seattle Sounders - New York City	3:1
17.06.17	New York City - Seattle Sounders	2:1
25.06.16	Seattle Sounders - New York City	0:2
03.05.15	New York City - Seattle Sounders	1:3

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