What is the expert prediction for Newcastle United vs Bournemouth?

Our statistical model provides live predictions including win probabilities and estimated scores for Newcastle United vs Bournemouth. Follow the link for detailed analytics.

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Newcastle United vs Bournemouth Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Saturday, April 18, 2026)

Match Info

Premier League - Round 33

Date: 18 April 2026, Saturday

Location: St. James' Park (Newcastle)

Referee: Bramall T. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 3, DStv Now, One Africa, Sporty TV, Sporty TV App, StarTimes App, SuperSport Blitz, SuperSport GOtv Football, SuperSport Maximo 360, SuperSport Premier League
Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports, Setanta Sports 1
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria Premier League
Azerbaijan	Setanta Sports 1
Bangladesh	Toffee Live
Benin	Benin TV
Bolivia	ESPN
Botswana	YTV
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Diema Sport 2, Play Diema Xtra
Cameroon	CRTV Sports
Canada	DAZN Canada, fubo Sports Network 4 DRM, FuboTV
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu, QQ Sports
Colombia	Disney+
Cote-d-ivoire	NCI
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 3, Cytavision Sports 3
Czech-republic	CANAL+ Sport, Oneplay
Denmark	TV3 MAX, Viaplay
Ecuador	ESPN
Eswatini	Eswatini TV
Europe	Go3 Extra Sports Baltic, Setanta Sports 1 Baltic
Finland	Viaplay 2 Urheilu, Viaplay, V Sport Premium
France	CANAL+ Foot, CANAL+ France, Canal+ Live 5
Georgia	Setanta Sports 1
Germany	Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Premier League, WOW
Greece	Nova Sports Premier League
Guinea	CIS
Haiti	Tele Haiti
Hong-kong	M Plus Live, Now Player
Hungary	Spiler1 TV, TV2 Play Premium
Iceland	SÝN Sport 2
India	Disney+ Hotstar, Star Sports Select 1
Indonesia	Vidio
Israel	Sport 1
Italy	Sky Sport Uno
Japan	U-NEXT
Kenya	Gotv, K24
Kosovo	Arena Premium 2
Kyrgyzstan	Setanta Sports 1
Malaysia	Astro Go, Astro Premier League 2, Canal+, Canal+ Sport 1, Canal+ Sport 2, Sooka
Maldives	Medianet
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 2
Mauritius	MBC 11
Mexico	HBO Max, TNT Sports
Moldova	Setanta Sports 1
Myanmar	Canal+ Myanmar
Nepal	Kantipur Max
Netherlands	Viaplay
New-zealand	SKY Go NZ, Sky Sport Premier League
Nigeria	NTA Sports, SuperSport Blitz
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean, ESPN Caribbean
Norway	Viaplay, V Sport Premier League 1
Pakistan	ARY ZAP
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	Setanta Sports
Poland	Canal+ Extra 1
Portugal	DAZN 1, DAZN / App, DAZN Portugal
Romania	Voyo
Senegal	RTS 2
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
Singapore	Hub Premier 2
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 2
South-africa	SABC 3, SABC Plus, SuperSport Variety 3
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN 1 Espana, DAZN 2 Espana, DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Premium
Switzerland	Sky Sport Premier League, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Taiwan	ELTA Sports 1
Tajikistan	Setanta Sports 1
Thailand	AIS PLAY
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Turkmenistan	Setanta Sports 1
Ukraine	Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	NBC Universo, NBC, Peacock, Telemundo, UNIVERSO NOW, USA Network
Uzbekistan	Setanta Sports 1
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	FPT Play
World	Sport 24 At Sea


	Newcastle United		Bournemouth

	1	X	2
	2	3.75	3.5
	2.08	3.85	3.35
	2.05	4.1	3.53
	2.03	3.96	3.5	Watch
	1.95	3.75	3.4
	2.04	3.94	3.68	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.03 ↑ (1.87)	3.89 ↓ (4.08)	3.49 ↓ (3.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Newcastle United
47.6%

Draw
24.8%

Bournemouth
27.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.3%

23.5%

25.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.7%

24.6%

24%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Newcastle United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

Bournemouth has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Newcastle United than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Newcastle United, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bournemouth than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
64.7%	26.5%	8.8%

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Predictions

Users Predictions: 34 users predict this event. Newcastle will win (votes: 22 - 64.7%). Bournemouth will win (votes: 3 - 8.8%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 26.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Newcastle: 48.6% – 80.8%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - draw (votes: 0 - 0%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Bournemouth (1.68) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Newcastle United will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Newcastle (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Bournemouth (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
32. Ramsdale A. (G) 21. Livramento V. 12. Thiaw M. 4. Botman S. 3. Hall L. 67. Miley L. 8. Tonali S. (C) 41. Ramsey J. 20. Elanga A. 18. Osula W. 11. Barnes H.	1. Petrovic D. (G) 20. Jimenez A. 23. Hill J. 5. Senesi M. 3. Truffert A. 8. Scott A. 10. Christie R. (C) 37. Rayan 22. Kroupi E. J. 16. Tavernier M. 9. Evanilson
Substitutes
39. Bruno Guimaraes 33. Burn D. 37. Murphy A. 23. Murphy J. 1. Pope N. (G) 2. Trippier K. 28. Willock J. 9. Wissa Y. 27. Woltemade N.	12. Adams T. 21. Adli A. 7. Brooks D. 18. Diakite B. 11. Doak B. 29. Mandas C. (G) 15. Smith A. 27. Toth A. 26. Unal E.
Coaches
Howe E.	Iraola A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
32', 0 - 1, Tavernier M. ⚽, Rayan (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Hall L. ↓, Trippier K. ↑,
52', Christie R. 🟨,
55', Tavernier M. 🟨,
62', Elanga A. ↓, Murphy J. ↑,
62', Ramsey J. ↓, Bruno Guimaraes ↑,
65', Christie R. ↓, Adams T. ↑,
66', Kroupi E. J. ↓, Brooks D. ↑,
68', 1 - 1, Osula W. ⚽,
74', Livramento V. ↓, Burn D. ↑,
77', Botman S. 🟨,
78', Rayan ↓, Doak B. ↑,
80', Murphy J. 🟨,
82', Scott A. 🟨,
85', 1 - 2, Truffert A. ⚽, Evanilson (A),
86', Tonali S. ↓, Woltemade N. ↑,
89', Evanilson ↓, Unal E. ↑,
89', Tavernier M. ↓, Toth A. ↑,
90+4', Petrovic D. 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 14 and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Newcastle won 1.

Newcastle has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Bournemouth has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Newcastle might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Newcastle: Bruno Guimaraes (Muscle Injury) Joelinton (Yellow Cards) Krafth E. (Knee Injury) Schar F. (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in Bournemouth: Cook L. (Hamstring Injury) Kluivert J. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Bournemouth: Soler J. (Hamstring Injury)

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Newcastle won 6 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 25:25. (average 1.5:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Newcastle won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 14:16. (average 1.6:1.8).

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Standings

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Bournemouth	34	11	16	7	52:52	0	49
15	Newcastle	34	12	6	16	46:50	-4	42

Last Results with these Odds

Newcastle United - the odds 1.87 are the expected chance of winning is 51.34%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Bournemouth - the odds 3.82 are the expected chance of winning is 25.13%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Newcastle United
English Premier League
12.04.26	Crystal Palace - Newcastle United	2:1 ✺
22.03.26	Newcastle United - Sunderland	1:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
18.03.26	Barcelona - Newcastle United	7:2 ✺
English Premier League
14.03.26	Chelsea - Newcastle United	0:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
10.03.26	Newcastle United - Barcelona	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 LLLWT
- AFC Bournemouth
English Premier League
11.04.26	Arsenal - Bournemouth	1:2 ✺
20.03.26	Bournemouth - Manchester United	2:2 ✺
14.03.26	Burnley - Bournemouth	0:0 ✺
03.03.26	Bournemouth - Brentford	0:0 ✺
28.02.26	Bournemouth - Sunderland	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18 WTTTT

Latest Head to Head

English FA Cup
10.01.26	Newcastle United - Bournemouth	4:3 penalties
English Premier League
21.09.25	Bournemouth - Newcastle United	0:0
18.01.25	Newcastle United - Bournemouth	1:4
25.08.24	Bournemouth - Newcastle United	1:1
17.02.24	Newcastle United - Bournemouth	2:2
11.11.23	Bournemouth - Newcastle United	2:0
11.02.23	Bournemouth - Newcastle United	1:1

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