Match Info

Champions League - Play Offs - 1/16-finals

Date: 24 February 2026, Tuesday

Location: St. James' Park (Newcastle)

Referee: Massa D. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Newcastle United		Qarabağ Agdam

	1	X	2
	1.17	8.5	15
	1.16	8.5	15
	1.16	8.3	17.5
	1.13	10.73	18
	1.15	9.18	18.15	Watch
	1.15	8	15
	1.18	8.58	15.1	Watch
	1.14	8	17
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.16 ↑ (1.12)	8.72 ↓ (10.65)	16.34 ↓ (18.98)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Newcastle United
83.1%

Draw
11%

Qarabağ Agdam
5.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

85.9%

5.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Newcastle United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

Qarabağ Agdam has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80.6%	9.7%	9.7%

Newcastle United - Qarabağ Agdam Predictions

Users Predictions: 31 users predict this event. Newcastle will win (votes: 25 - 80.6%). Qarabağ will win (votes: 3 - 9.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 9.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Newcastle: 66.7% – 94.5%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +2.25 - Qarabağ (2.15) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1.5 - Newcastle (1.42) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 50%) .

AH +1, 1st Half - Qarabağ (1.96) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5 - over (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

DC - Newcastle (1.03) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Newcastle United will win (10 of 11 users predict this - 90.91%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 15 Selected Experts predict this event. Newcastle (votes: 12 - 80%). Qarabağ (votes: 3 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
32. Ramsdale A. (G) 2. Trippier K. (C) 4. Botman S. 33. Burn D. 37. Murphy A. 27. Woltemade N. 8. Tonali S. 7. Joelinton 23. Murphy J. 18. Osula W. 11. Barnes H.	99. Kochalski M. (G) 2. Matheus Silva 55. Huseynov B. (C) 81. Medina K. 18. Dani Bolt 35. Pedro Bicalho 8. Jankovic M. 44. Cafarquliyev E. 9. Montiel J. 10. Zoubir A. 17. Duran C.
Substitutes
20. Elanga A. 10. Gordon A. 3. Hall L. 58. Harris A. (G) 62. Neave S. 1. Pope N. (G) 26. Ruddy J. (G) 61. Shahar L. 28. Willock J. 9. Wissa Y.	11. Addai E. 27. Bayramov T. 97. Buntic F. (G) 32. Cabrayilzada H. 30. Huseynov A. 20. Kady Borges 21. Kashchuk O. 15. Leandro Andrade 22. Qurbanly M. 89. Ramazanov A. (G)
Coaches
Howe E.	Qurbanov Q.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
4', 1 - 0, Tonali S. ⚽, Osula W. (A),
6', 2 - 0, Joelinton ⚽, Barnes H. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 2)
51', 2 - 1, Duran C. ⚽, Montiel J. (A),
52', 3 - 1, Botman S. ⚽, Trippier K. (A),
53', Trippier K. ↓, Hall L. ↑,
53', Botman S. ↓, Willock J. ↑,
54', Joelinton ↓, Gordon A. ↑,
57', Jankovic M. (Penalty Awarded),
57', 3 - 2, Cafarquliyev E. ⚽, Jankovic M. (A),
62', Montiel J. ↓, Kady Borges ↑,
69', Duran C. ↓, Kashchuk O. ↑,
73', Osula W. ↓, Wissa Y. ↑,
79', Jankovic M. ↓, Qurbanly M. ↑,
79', Zoubir A. ↓, Addai E. ↑,
79', Cafarquliyev E. ↓, Bayramov T. ↑,
80', Pedro Bicalho 🟨,
87', Murphy J. ↓, Shahar L. ↑,

Preview

First leg result: 6-1. Second leg.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Qarabağ may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Newcastle has had a series of away games.

In this match, Newcastle is the undisputed favorite.

There will not play in Newcastle: Bruno Guimaraes (Muscle Injury) Gillespie M. (Inactive) Krafth E. (Knee Injury) Livramento V. (Hamstring Injury) Miley L. (Knee Injury) Schar F. (Ankle Injury) Thiaw M. (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Qarabağ: Gnali J. (Inactive) Mahammadaliyev S. (Injury) Mustafazada B. (Injury) Rzayev A. (Inactive) Sheydayev R. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Newcastle: Wissa Y. (Knock)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Newcastle won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Newcastle United
English Premier League
21.02.26	Manchester City - Newcastle United	2:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
18.02.26	Qarabağ Agdam - Newcastle United	1:6 ✺
English FA Cup
14.02.26	Aston Villa - Newcastle United	1:3 ✺
English Premier League
10.02.26	Tottenham Hotspur - Newcastle United	1:2 ✺
07.02.26	Newcastle United - Brentford	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 LWWWL
- FK Qarabağ Agdam
UEFA Champions League
18.02.26	Qarabağ Agdam - Newcastle United	1:6 ✺
Azerbaijan Premier League
14.02.26	İmişli - Qarabağ Agdam	0:1 ✺
10.02.26	Shamakhi - Qarabağ Agdam	1:2 ✺
Azerbaijan Cup
05.02.26	Shamakhi - Qarabağ Agdam	2:1 ✺
Azerbaijan Premier League
01.02.26	Qarabağ Agdam - Turan Tovuz	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 LWWLW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
18.02.26	Qarabağ Agdam - Newcastle United	1:6

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