Match Info

Premier League - Round 27

Date: 21 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Etihad Stadium (Manchester)

Referee: Bramall T. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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World	Sport 24


	Manchester City		Newcastle United

	1	X	2
	1.57	4.75	5
	1.55	4.85	5.3
	1.5	5.28	6.09
	1.55	4.85	5.54	Watch
	1.53	4.4	5
	1.57	4.82	5.4	Watch
	1.46	5	6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.53 ↑ (1.48)	4.85 ↓ (5.21)	5.48 ↓ (5.74)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Manchester City
62.7%

Draw
19.8%

Newcastle United
17.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.9%

18.4%

16.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67.7%

17.6%

16%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Manchester City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

Newcastle United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Manchester City than the current prediction. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Newcastle United than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.9%	9.3%	2.8%

Manchester City - Newcastle United Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -3.5 - Man City (8.00) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - Man City (2.01) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH -1, 1st Half - Man City (3.51) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Man City (1.16) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS, 1st Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Manchester City will win (94 of 107 users predict this - 87.85%).
Confidence interval (95%): 81.66% – 94.04%. The data is statistically significant.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Manchester City will win (25 of 26 users predict this - 96.15%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 31 Selected Experts predict this event. Man City (votes: 30 - 96.8%). Tie (votes: 1 - 3.2%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Donnarumma G. (G) 27. Nunes M. 3. Dias R. 15. Guehi M. 21. Ait-Nouri R. 16. Rodri 42. Semenyo A. 20. Silva B. (C) 33. O'Reilly N. 9. Haaland E. 7. Marmoush O.	1. Pope N. (G) 2. Trippier K. (C) 12. Thiaw M. 33. Burn D. 3. Hall L. 41. Ramsey J. 8. Tonali S. 28. Willock J. 20. Elanga A. 27. Woltemade N. 10. Gordon A.
Substitutes
10. Cherki R. 47. Foden P. 45. Khusanov A. 82. Lewis R. 14. Nico 4. Reijnders T. 26. Savinho 5. Stones J. 1. Trafford J. (G)	11. Barnes H. 7. Joelinton 37. Murphy A. 23. Murphy J. 62. Neave S. 18. Osula W. 32. Ramsdale A. (G) 26. Ruddy J. (G) 61. Shahar L.
Coaches
Guardiola P.	Howe E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
9', Burn D. 🟨,
14', 1 - 0, O'Reilly N. ⚽, Marmoush O. (A),
22', 1 - 1, Hall L. ⚽, Ramsey J. (A),
27', 2 - 1, O'Reilly N. ⚽, Haaland E. (A),
41', Dias R. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Dias R. ↓, Khusanov A. ↑,
48', Willock J. 🟨,
50', Silva B. 🟨,
58', Marmoush O. ↓, Cherki R. ↑,
60', Woltemade N. ↓, Joelinton ↑,
60', Willock J. ↓, Barnes H. ↑,
62', Barnes H. 🟨,
65', Trippier K. 🟨,
78', Elanga A. ↓, Murphy J. ↑,
78', Gordon A. ↓, Osula W. ↑,
87', Semenyo A. ↓, Foden P. ↑,
89', Joelinton 🟨,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Man City won 3.

Man City is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Newcastle has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Newcastle may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Newcastle has had a series of away games.

In this match, Man City is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Man City: Doku J. (Calf Injury) Gvardiol J. (Broken Leg) Kovacic M. (Heel Injury)

There will not play in Newcastle: Bruno Guimaraes (Muscle Injury) Krafth E. (Knee Injury) Livramento V. (Hamstring Injury) Miley L. (Knee Injury) Schar F. (Ankle Injury) Wissa Y. (Knock)

There are questionable in Man City: Alleyne M. (Knock) Savinho (Health problems)

We predict that Man City will win today's game, with odds of 1.51.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Man City won 14 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 49:18. (average 2.5:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Man City won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 26:2. (average 2.9:0.2).

Outrights of English Premier League for now

Manchester City: 17.65%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Manchester City	5	5	0	0	13:5	8	15
9	Newcastle	5	2	2	1	9:9	0	8

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Manchester City
English FA Cup
14.02.26	Manchester City - Salford City	2:0 ✺
English Premier League
11.02.26	Manchester City - Fulham	3:0 ✺
08.02.26	Liverpool - Manchester City	1:2 ✺
English League Cup
04.02.26	Manchester City - Newcastle United	3:1 ✺
English Premier League
01.02.26	Tottenham Hotspur - Manchester City	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 WWWWT
- Newcastle United
UEFA Champions League
18.02.26	Qarabağ Agdam - Newcastle United	1:6 ✺
English FA Cup
14.02.26	Aston Villa - Newcastle United	1:3 ✺
English Premier League
10.02.26	Tottenham Hotspur - Newcastle United	1:2 ✺
07.02.26	Newcastle United - Brentford	2:3 ✺
English League Cup
04.02.26	Manchester City - Newcastle United	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 WWWLL

Latest Head to Head

English League Cup
04.02.26	Manchester City - Newcastle United	3:1
13.01.26	Newcastle United - Manchester City	0:2
English Premier League
22.11.25	Newcastle United - Manchester City	2:1
15.02.25	Manchester City - Newcastle United	4:0
28.09.24	Newcastle United - Manchester City	1:1
English FA Cup
16.03.24	Manchester City - Newcastle United	2:0
English Premier League
13.01.24	Newcastle United - Manchester City	2:3

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