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Newcastle United - Brentford

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Match Info

  • Premier League - Round 25
  • Date: 7 February 2026, Saturday ๐Ÿ Finished
  • Location: St. James' Park (Newcastle) ๐ŸŒค๏ธ ...
  • Referee: Madley A. (Eng)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
    • CountryKick-OffTV Channels
    AfricaAfrica—CANAL+ Sport 3, DStv Now, SuperSport GOtv Football, SuperSport MaXimo 1, SuperSport MaXimo 2, SuperSport Premier League
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    Newcastle United Brentford
    Newcastle United Brentford
    1 X 2
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    (Initially)    		 2.09 ↑
    (1.85)    		 3.58 ↓
    (3.89)    		 3.51 ↓
    (4.08)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

    • The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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    Current Win Probability

    Newcastle United
    45.9%    		Draw
    26.8%    		Brentford
    27.3%

    Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
    51.8% 24.7% 23.5%

    Our Initial ML Estimation
    52.1% 24.9% 23%


    Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
  • Newcastle United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.9%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Newcastle United's form might have worsened.
  • Brentford has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Newcastle United than the current prediction. (+6.2%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Newcastle United, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Brentford than the current prediction. (-4.3%)

    • Who will win by Users?

    1
    X
    2
    67.3% 12.2% 20.4%

    Newcastle United - Brentford Predictions

  • Users Predictions: 49 users predict this event. Newcastle will win (votes: 33 - 67.3%). Brentford will win (votes: 10 - 20.4%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 12.2%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Newcastle: 54.2% โ€“ 80.4%.
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
    • AH -0.5 - Newcastle (1.96) (votes: 1 - 50%) .
    • BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .
    • DNB - Newcastle (1.45) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • DC - Newcastle (1.29) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .
  • Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Newcastle United will win (27 of 32 users predict this - 84.38%) ๐Ÿฅˆ Silver Tip.
  • Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 36 Selected Experts predict this event. Newcastle (votes: 30 - 83.3%). Brentford (votes: 6 - 16.7%).
  • Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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    Lineups

    Starting Lineups
      1. EnglandPope N. (G)
      2. EnglandTrippier K.
    12. GermanyThiaw M.
      4. NetherlandsBotman S.
      3. EnglandHall L.
    28. EnglandWillock J.
    39. BrazilBruno Guimaraes (C)
      8. ItalyTonali S.
    23. EnglandMurphy J.
      9. DRWissa Y.
    11. EnglandBarnes H.
    		  1. IrelandKelleher C. (G)
    33. ItalyKayode M.
    20. NorwayAjer K.
      4. Netherlandsvan den Berg S.
      3. JamaicaHenry R.
      6. EnglandHenderson J.
    27. GermanyJanelt V.
    19. BurkinaOuattara Da.
      8. DenmarkJensen M. (C)
    23. EnglandLewis-Potter K.
      9. BrazilThiago I.
    Substitutes
    33. EnglandBurn D.
    20. SwedenElanga A.
    37. IrelandMurphy A.
    62. EnglandNeave S.
    18. DenmarkOsula W.
    32. EnglandRamsdale A. (G)
    41. EnglandRamsey J.
    61. EnglandShahar L.
    27. GermanyWoltemade N.
    		22. IrelandCollins N.
    24. DenmarkDamsgaard M.
    45. EnglandDonovan R.
    47. BelgiumFuro K.
      2. ScotlandHickey A.
    11. EnglandNelson R.
      5. JamaicaPinnock E.
    12. IcelandValdimarsson H. R. (G)
    18. UkraineYarmolyuk Y.
    Coaches
         EnglandHowe E.
    		     IrelandAndrews K.

    Key Events of the Match

    • 1st Half (1 - 2)
    • 24', 1 - 0, Botman S. ⚽, Bruno Guimaraes (A),
    • 37', 1 - 1, Janelt V. ⚽, Ouattara Da. (A),
    • 44', Murphy J. 🟨,
    • 45+2', 1 - 2, Thiago I. (Penalty Awarded),
    • 2nd Half (1 - 1)
    • 46', Murphy J. ↓, Woltemade N. ↑,
    • 46', Willock J. ↓, Elanga A. ↑,
    • 56', Henderson J. ↓, Yarmolyuk Y. ↑,
    • 65', Wissa Y. ↓, Osula W. ↑,
    • 69', Thiago I. 🟨,
    • 79', 2 - 2, Bruno Guimaraes (Penalty Awarded),
    • 80', Lewis-Potter K. ↓, Donovan R. ↑,
    • 85', 2 - 3, Ouattara Da. ⚽, Jensen M. (A),
    • 87', Jensen M. ↓, Damsgaard M. ↑,
    • 87', Trippier K. ↓, Burn D. ↑,
    • 87', Tonali S. ↓, Ramsey J. ↑,
    • 90+1', Janelt V. 🟨,
    • 90+6', Hall L. 🟨,

    Preview

  • Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 11 and 7).
  • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Newcastle won 3.
  • Newcastle is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).
  • Brentford has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins โ€“ 3).
  • Newcastle may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
  • Newcastle is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
  • There will not play in Newcastle: Joelinton (Injury) Krafth E. (Knee Injury) Livramento V. (Hamstring Injury) Schar F. (Injury)
  • There will not play in Brentford: Carvalho F. (Knee Injury) Dasilva J. (Knee Injury) Milambo A. (Knee Injury) Schade K. (Red Card)
  • There are questionable in Newcastle: Bruno Guimaraes (Ankle Injury) Gordon A. (Injury) Miley L. (Knee Injury)
  • In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Newcastle won 9 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 30:19. (average 2.3:1.5).
  • Including home matches between the teams, Newcastle won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 17:7. (average 2.8:1.2).

    • Standings

    PlWDLDiffPts
    6Brentford825114:9511
    8Newcastle832312:14-211

    Outrights of English Premier League for now
    Brentford: 0.46%
    Last Results with these Odds

    Newcastle United - the odds 1.85 are the expected chance of winning is 51.84%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

    Form
    ✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;
    - Newcastle United
    English League Cup
    04.02.26 Manchester City - Newcastle United 3:1 ✺
    English Premier League
    31.01.26 Liverpool - Newcastle United 4:1 ✺
    UEFA Champions League
    28.01.26 Paris Saint-Germain - Newcastle United 1:1 ✺
    English Premier League
    25.01.26 Newcastle United - Aston Villa 0:2 ✺
    UEFA Champions League
    21.01.26 Newcastle United - PSV Eindhoven 3:0 ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4
    LLTLW
    - Brentford FC
    English Premier League
    01.02.26 Aston Villa - Brentford 0:1 ✺
    25.01.26 Brentford - Nottingham Forest 0:2 ✺
    17.01.26 Chelsea - Brentford 2:0 ✺
    English FA Cup
    10.01.26 Sheffield Wednesday - Brentford 0:2 ✺
    English Premier League
    07.01.26 Brentford - Sunderland 3:0 ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5
    WLLWW
    Latest Head to Head
    English Premier League
    09.11.25 Brentford - Newcastle United 3:1
    02.04.25 Newcastle United - Brentford 2:1
    English League Cup
    18.12.24 Newcastle United - Brentford 3:1
    English Premier League
    07.12.24 Brentford - Newcastle United 4:2
    19.05.24 Brentford - Newcastle United 2:4
    16.09.23 Newcastle United - Brentford 1:0
    08.04.23 Brentford - Newcastle United 1:2
    Upcoming Matches
    ✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;
    - Newcastle United
    English Premier League
    02.11.26 Newcastle United - Everton ✺
    - Brentford FC
    English Premier League
    31.10.26 Brentford - Nottingham Forest ✺

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