Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: COPA SUDAMERICANA - GROUP STAGE - ROUND 3

Date: 2 May 2023, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Marcelo Bielsa (Rosario)

Referee: Herrera A. (Ven)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	ESPN 4
Portugal	Sport TV


	Newells Old Boys		Santos

	1	X	2
	2.2	3	3.6	Watch
	2.3	2.85	3.4
	2.17	3	3.7
	2.17	3.05	3.9
	2.25	2.75	3.4
	2.26	2.96	3.58	Watch
	2.26	2.9	3.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.23 ↓ (2.34)	2.93 ↓ (3.03)	3.58 ↑ (3)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Newells Old Boys
41.9%

Draw
31.9%

Santos
26.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.2%

30.2%

30.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.7%

32.1%

28.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Newells Old Boys has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

Santos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Newells Old Boys than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Santos than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	11.1%	22.2%

Newells Old Boys - Santos Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Newells Old Boys will win (votes: 6 - 66.7%). Santos will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Newells Old Boys: 35.9% – 97.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

The game of competitors is shaky now.

Santos could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Santos have a series of home games.

Newell's Old Boys will have a small advantage in this match.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Newells Old Boys
Argentinian Liga Profesional
28.04.23	Newells Old Boys - Argentinos Juniors	0:0 ✺
22.04.23	Belgrano - Newells Old Boys	1:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
18.04.23	Newells Old Boys - Blooming	3:0 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
16.04.23	Newells Old Boys - River Plate	0:1 ✺
12.04.23	Racing - Newells Old Boys	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 TLWLW
- Santos FC
Brazilian Serie A
29.04.23	Santos - América Mineiro	3:2 ✺
Copa do Brasil
26.04.23	Santos - Botafogo SP	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
23.04.23	Santos - Atlético Mineiro	0:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
20.04.23	Santos - Audax Italiano	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
16.04.23	Grêmio - Santos	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 WWTTL

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