The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Accrington Stanley 44.3%
Draw 27.6%
Newport County 28.1%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
45.5%
27.1%
27.4%
Our Initial ML Estimation
39%
23.2%
32%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Accrington Stanley has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)
Newport County has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Accrington Stanley than the current prediction. (-5.3%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Accrington Stanley that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Newport County than the current prediction. (+3.9%)
Accrington Stanley - Newport County Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Moulden L. (G) 2. Love D. 28. Conneely S. (C) 22. Anderson J. 38. O'Brien C. 14. Mols S. 6. Coyle L. 33. Tutonda D. 39. Woods J. 23. Walton T. 18. Caton C.
1. Wright J. (G) 5. Jenkins L. 4. Cameron K. (C) 12. Thomas J. 22. Norman C. 24. Dibley-Dias M. 6. Brennan C. 16. Jacob M. 10. Biggins H. 7. Evans K. 27. Doidge C.
Substitutes
16. Borland A. 20. Brown C. 27. Catesby J. 21. Rogerson J. (G) 3. Smith O. 13. Stockton C. 30. Warren C.
23. Adu Poku M. 20. Bamba Y. 9. Gwengwe S. 21. Nyakuhwa T. 34. Sassi D. 8. Smith M. 25. Turner J. (G)
Coaches
Doolan J.
Mullins H.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 0)
21', Love D. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
53', Caton C. ↓, Stockton C. ↑,
66', O'Brien C. ↓, Smith O. ↑,
66', Evans K. ↓, Adu Poku M. ↑,
78', Norman C. 🟨,
81', Tutonda D. ↓, Catesby J. ↑,
83', Biggins H. 🟨,
86', Biggins H. ↓, Nyakuhwa T. ↑,
86', Doidge C. ↓, Gwengwe S. ↑,
90+2', Mols S. 🟨,
Preview
A high-tension relegation six-pointer between two sides desperate to escape the danger zone (ranked 21st and 19th).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Accrington won 3.
Both teams have struggled for positive results in recent outings.
Accrington is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.
Confirmed absences for Accrington: Matthews D.
(Red Card)
Mooney K.
(Knee Injury)
Sinclair I.
(Inactive).
Confirmed absences for Newport: Crole J.
(Inactive)
Davies T.
(Inactive)
Etete K.
(Inactive).
Doubtful / questionable for Accrington: Love D.
(Inactive)
Moore T.
(Inactive).
In the last 16 head-to-head meetings, Accrington has recorded 5 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses, with a goal aggregate of 28:25 (averaging 1.8:1.6 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Accrington against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, with 15:12 goals (averaging 1.9:1.5 per game).
Watch
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Moulden L. (G) 
Love D. 
Conneely S. (C) 
Mols S. 
Coyle L. 
Tutonda D. 
Caton C. 
Dibley-Dias M. 
Bamba Y. 
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