Match Info

ENGLAND: FA Cup - 1/128-finals

Date: 2 November 2024, Saturday

Location: Rodney Parade (Newport)


	Newport County		Peterborough United

	1	X	2
	5.5	4	1.57
	5	4.4	1.58
	5	4.5	1.55	Watch
	4.8	4.43	1.58
	4.96	4.3	1.58	Watch
	5	4.4	1.6
	5.05	4.45	1.59	Watch
	5	4.5	1.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.04 ↑ (4.42)	4.37 ↑ (3.84)	1.58 ↓ (1.74)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Newport County
18.7%

Draw
21.5%

Peterborough United
59.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.3%

24.5%

54.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.5%

23.6%

56.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Newport County has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

Peterborough United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Peterborough United's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Newport County than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Peterborough United than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
5.3%	5.3%	89.5%

Newport County - Peterborough United Predictions

Users Predictions: Peterborough United will win (14 of 16 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.29% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Townsend N. (C) 4. Baker M. 23. Jameson K. 6. Brennan C. 26. Evans C. 16. Miley J. 14. Whitmore K. 17. Evans K. 3. Driscoll-Glennon A. 25. Hudlin K. 9. Baker-Richardson C.	1. Bilokapic N. (G) 33. Dornelly J. 37. Fernandez E. 15. Nevett G. 21. Sparkes J. 7. Mothersille M. 8. De Havilland R. 14. Randall J. 4. Collins A. (C) 11. Poku K. 10. Odoh A.
Substitutes
13. Carney J. (G) 5. Clarke J. 10. Greaves O. 31. Jephcott L. 7. Kamwa B. 19. McLoughlin S. 21. Spellman M. 12. Thomas J. 24. Wildig A.	16. Ajiboye D. 13. Blackmore W. (G) 9. Conn-Clarke C. 18. Hayes C. 17. Jones R.J. 42. Mendonca L. 34. Mills H. 35. O'Brien-Brady D. 40. Rose O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
5', 1 - 0, Driscoll-Glennon A. ⚽,
7', 2 - 0, Whitmore K. ⚽,
27', 2 - 1, Odoh A. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 3)
51', Baker-Richardson C. 🟨,
56', Baker M. 🟨,
57', 🟨,
63', Mothersille M. ↓, Jones R.J. ↑,
65', Baker-Richardson C. ↓, Kamwa B. ↑,
71', 2 - 2, Randall J. ⚽,
74', Whitmore K. ↓, Jephcott L. ↑,
86', De Havilland R. ↓, O'Brien-Brady D. ↑,
89', 2 - 3, Jones R.J. ⚽,
90+3', 2 - 4, Jones R.J. ⚽,

Preview

Newport is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Peterborough is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Newport could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Peterborough is a favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Newport won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0:3

Including matches at home between the teams Newport won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0:3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Newport County
English League Two
26.10.24	Newport County - Fleetwood Town	0:0 ✺
22.10.24	Gillingham - Newport County	0:2 ✺
18.10.24	Newport County - Chesterfield	0:3 ✺
12.10.24	Harrogate Town - Newport County	1:0 ✺
07.10.24	Bradford City - Newport County	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.2 TWLLL
- Peterborough United
English League One
26.10.24	Bolton Wanderers - Peterborough United	1:0 ✺
22.10.24	Peterborough United - Blackpool	5:1 ✺
19.10.24	Wycombe Wanderers - Peterborough United	3:1 ✺
12.10.24	Peterborough United - Rotherham United	3:3 ✺
English EFL Trophy
08.10.24	Peterborough United - Stevenage Borough	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 LWLTW

Latest Head to Head

English EFL Trophy
10.12.13	Newport County - Peterborough United	0:3

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