The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Gillingham 50.4%
Draw 26%
Newport County 23.6%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
42.2%
27.7%
30.1%
Our Initial ML Estimation
43.5%
26.9%
29.2%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Gillingham has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.2%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Gillingham's performance.
Newport County has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.5%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Newport County might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gillingham than the current prediction. (-6.9%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Gillingham that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Newport County than the current prediction. (+5.6%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Newport County could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
92.9%
7.1%
0%
Gillingham - Newport County Predictions
Users Predictions:
Gillingham will win
(13 of 14 users predict this - 92.86%). Confidence interval (95%): 79.37% – 100%.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Wright O. (G) 5. Smith A. 19. Beckles O. (C) 26. Dobbs L. 22. Freeman N. 24. Waldock H. 14. McKenzie R. 16. Brophy J. 12. McCleary G. 10. Hale R. 11. Sillah L.
1. Wright J. (G) 22. Norman C. 5. Jenkins L. 4. Cameron K. (C) 12. Thomas J. 16. Jacob M. 23. Adu Poku M. 6. Brennan C. 24. Dibley-Dias M. 10. Biggins H. 27. Doidge C.
Substitutes
6. Coleman E. 23. Dack B. 20. Daley J. 39. Eaves T. 18. Kendall S. 8. Little A. 40. Luthra R. (G)
20. Bamba Y. 19. Garner G. 18. Lewis A. 33. MacDonald S. (G) 17. Merritt A. 34. Sassi D. 8. Smith M.
Coaches
Ainsworth G.
Mullins H.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 0)
14', Hale R. 🟨,
15', Sillah L. 🟨,
45+1', Biggins H. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
63', Sillah L. ↓, Eaves T. ↑,
70', Norman C. 🟨,
72', Dobbs L. 🟨,
74', Dobbs L. ↓, Daley J. ↑,
74', McCleary G. ↓, Kendall S. ↑,
76', Adu Poku M. ↓, Bamba Y. ↑,
79', Daley J. 🟨,
83', Doidge C. ↓, Garner G. ↑,
86', Waldock H. ↓, Little A. ↑,
86', Hale R. ↓, Dack B. ↑,
90+6', Biggins H. ↓, Lewis A. ↑,
Preview
This match features a clash between a top-table contender and a mid-table team (ranked 8th and 17th).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Gillingham won 2.
Both teams have experienced an unpredictable run of results lately.
A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Gillingham holding a narrow advantage.
Confirmed absences for Gillingham: Albarus Z.
(Red Card)
Gordon L.
(Inactive)
Harris K.
(Inactive)
Maclorg L.
(Inactive)
Obiero Z.
(Inactive).
Confirmed absences for Newport: Crole J.
(Inactive)
Patten K.
(Inactive).
Doubtful / questionable for Gillingham: Little A.
(Inactive)
Tabares S.
(Inactive).
Doubtful / questionable for Newport: Davies T.
(Inactive)
Etete K.
(Inactive).
In the last 10 head-to-head meetings, Gillingham has recorded 2 wins, 0 draws, and 8 losses, with a goal aggregate of 12:21 (averaging 1.2:2.1 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Gillingham against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 0 draws, and 4 losses, with 6:11 goals (averaging 1.2:2.2 per game).
Watch
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Wright O. (G) 
Beckles O. (C) 
McCleary G. 
Hale R. 
Sillah L. 
Jenkins L. 
Cameron K. (C) 
Brennan C. 
Dibley-Dias M. 
Kendall S. 
Bamba Y. 
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