Match Info

League One - Round 11

Date: 4 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Toughsheet Community Stadium (Bolton)

Referee: Stockbridge S. (Eng)


	Bolton Wanderers		Peterborough United

	1	X	2
	1.41	4.5	6
	1.46	4.5	6
	1.43	4.7	6.4
	1.5	4.46	6.45
	1.19	5.89	16.36	Watch
	1.48	4.45	6	Watch
	1.4	4.7	6.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.41 ↓ (1.44)	4.74 ↑ (4.66)	7.63 ↑ (6.13)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bolton Wanderers
67.5%

Draw
20.1%

Peterborough United
12.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.8%

20%

15.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67%

19.3%

14.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bolton Wanderers has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

Peterborough United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bolton Wanderers than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Peterborough United than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
72.7%	9.1%	18.2%

Bolton Wanderers - Peterborough United Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Bolton will win (votes: 8 - 72.7%). Peterborough will win (votes: 2 - 18.2%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 9.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bolton: 46.4% – 99%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Bolton (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Sharman-Lowe T. (G) 29. Christie C. 3. Forino-Joseph C. 6. Johnston G. (C) 25. Conway M. 21. Erhahon E. 4. Simons X. 19. Cozier-Duberry A. 24. Forss M. 11. Gale T. 48. Burstow M.	1. Bass A. (G) 12. Lees T. 15. Nevett G. 29. O'Connor T. 30. Kioso P. (C) 28. Garbett M. 4. Collins A. 16. Woods B. 40. Mendy J. 24. Morgan J. 27. Leonard H.
Substitutes
20. Cissoko I. 10. Dalby S. 27. Miller T. (G) 16. Morley A. 17. Randall J. 8. Sheehan J. 18. Toal E.	33. Dornelly J. 2. Johnston C. 8. Khela B. 17. Lisbie K. 10. Odoh A. 26. Okagbue D. 21. Reyes V. (G)
Coaches
Schumacher S.	Ferguson D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
5', 1 - 0, Burstow M. ⚽, Christie C. (A),
21', 2 - 0, Burstow M. ⚽, Cozier-Duberry A. (A),
26', Kioso P. 🟨,
41', 2 - 1, Kioso P. ⚽, Leonard H. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
63', Nevett G. 🟨,
63', Forss M. ↓, Dalby S. ↑,
64', Gale T. ↓, Cissoko I. ↑,
72', Morgan J. ↓, Lisbie K. ↑,
72', Mendy J. ↓, Odoh A. ↑,
77', Erhahon E. ↓, Morley A. ↑,
83', Woods B. ↓, Khela B. ↑,
85', Burstow M. ↓, Randall J. ↑,
85', Christie C. ↓, Toal E. ↑,
87', Nevett G. ↓, Dornelly J. ↑,
88', Lisbie K. 🟨,
88', Sharman-Lowe T. 🟨,
90+5', Forino-Joseph C. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 11 and 24 in the zone Relegation ~ League Two).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bolton won 2.

Bolton is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Peterborough has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Bolton may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Bolton is the obvious favorite.

There will not play in Bolton: Adeboyejo V. (Knee Injury) Forrester W. (Hamstring Injury) Osei-Tutu J. (Inactive)

There will not play in Peterborough: Adebisi R. (Knee Injury) Frith D. (Inactive) Hughes S. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Wallin O. (Inactive)

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Bolton won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 20:12. (average 1.7:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Bolton won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:1. (average 1.2:0.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bolton Wanderers
English League One
27.09.25	Northampton Town - Bolton Wanderers	2:0 ✺
English EFL Trophy
23.09.25	Bolton Wanderers - Manchester City U21	3:0 ✺
English League One
20.09.25	Bolton Wanderers - Wigan Athletic	4:1 ✺
13.09.25	Leyton Orient - Bolton Wanderers	1:1 ✺
06.09.25	Bolton Wanderers - AFC Wimbledon	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 LWWTW
- Peterborough United
English EFL Trophy
30.09.25	Peterborough United - Aston Villa U21	4:2 ✺
English League One
27.09.25	Peterborough United - Lincoln City	0:3 ✺
20.09.25	Plymouth Argyle - Peterborough United	0:1 ✺
13.09.25	Peterborough United - Wycombe Wanderers	2:1 ✺
06.09.25	Huddersfield Town - Peterborough United	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.8 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

English League One
26.04.25	Peterborough United - Bolton Wanderers	1:1
26.10.24	Bolton Wanderers - Peterborough United	1:0
27.04.24	Peterborough United - Bolton Wanderers	3:3
23.09.23	Bolton Wanderers - Peterborough United	1:1
11.02.23	Peterborough United - Bolton Wanderers	0:5
17.09.22	Bolton Wanderers - Peterborough United	1:0
14.12.19	Peterborough United - Bolton Wanderers	1:0

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