Match Info

Cymru North - Round 16

Date: 5 December 2025, Friday

Location: Latham Park (Newtown)


	Newtown		Penrhyncoch

	1	X	2
	1.44	4.55	5.3
	1.44	4.79	5.03
	1.47	4.98	5.31	Watch
	1.39	4.6	6.07
	1.35	4.75	6.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.42 ↑ (1.34)	4.73 ↓ (5.41)	5.61 ↓ (6.98)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Newtown
64.4%

Draw
19.3%

Penrhyncoch
16.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

69.5%

17.2%

13.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

73.3%

16.3%

12.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Newtown has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Newtown's form might have worsened.

Penrhyncoch has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Newtown than the current prediction. (+8.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Newtown, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Penrhyncoch than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

Newtown - Penrhyncoch Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
73', 1 - 0, Hyne J. ⚽,
90+2', 1 - 1, Owen D. ⚽,

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 4 and 16 in the zone Relegation).

Newtown has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Penrhyncoch has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Penrhyncoch may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Newtown is seen as the favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Newtown won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Newtown AFC
Welsh Cymru North
29.11.25	Guilsfield - Newtown	2:1 ✺
15.11.25	Newtown - Holywell Town	2:2 ✺
08.11.25	Mold Alexandra - Newtown	1:3 ✺
Welsh League Cup
04.11.25	Newtown - Llandudno	3:6 ✺
Welsh Cymru North
31.10.25	Gresford Athletic - Newtown	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 LTWLW
- Penrhyncoch FC
Welsh Cymru North
29.11.25	Penrhyncoch - Buckley Town	6:0 ✺
Welsh FA Cup
22.11.25	Caernarfon Town - Penrhyncoch	4:0 ✺
Welsh Cymru North
08.11.25	Brickfield Rangers - Penrhyncoch	4:1 ✺
01.11.25	Rhyl - Penrhyncoch	3:1 ✺
25.10.25	Penrhyncoch - Flint Mountain	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 WLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru North
08.08.25	Penrhyncoch - Newtown	1:2

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