Match Info

BRAZIL: COPA DO BRASIL - 1/16-FINALS

Date: 12 April 2023, Wednesday

Location: Raulino de Oliveira (Rio de Janeiro)

Referee: Lopez D. (Bra)


	Nova Iguaçu		América Mineiro

	1	X	2
	7	3.75	1.55	Watch
	5.25	3.7	1.53
	6	3.85	1.5
	6.63	3.67	1.57
	6.5	3.5	1.52
	6	3.85	1.54
	5.8	3.8	1.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.17 ↑ (4.15)	3.73 ↑ (3.13)	1.54 ↓ (1.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nova Iguaçu
15%

Draw
24.8%

América Mineiro
60.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22%

29.2%

48.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.5%

28.6%

49.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nova Iguaçu has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Nova Iguaçu's form might have worsened.

América Mineiro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting América Mineiro's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nova Iguaçu than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Nova Iguaçu, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for América Mineiro than the current prediction. (-10.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for América Mineiro, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
30%	0%	70%

Nova Iguaçu - América Mineiro Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Nova Iguaçu will win (votes: 3 - 30%). América MG will win (votes: 7 - 70%).
Confidence interval (95%) for América MG: 41.6% – 98.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Preview

1st leg.

Both teams are now playing unstable.

América MG could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently América MG have a series of home games.

In this match América MG is a favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nova Iguaçu
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
26.03.23	Audax Rio - Nova Iguaçu	1:0 ✺
18.03.23	Nova Iguaçu - Audax Rio	1:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
15.03.23	Nova Iguaçu - Nova Mutum	5:2 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
09.03.23	Nova Iguaçu - Madureira	4:0 ✺
04.03.23	Boavista - Nova Iguaçu	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 LTWWL
- América Mineiro
Brazilian Campeonato Mineiro
09.04.23	Atlético Mineiro - América Mineiro	2:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
05.04.23	América Mineiro - Peñarol de Montevideo	4:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Mineiro
01.04.23	América Mineiro - Atlético Mineiro	2:3 ✺
19.03.23	América Mineiro - Cruzeiro	2:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
14.03.23	América Mineiro - Santa Cruz Recife	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 LWLWW

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