Match Info

Mineiro - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 22 February 2026, Sunday

Location: MRV Arena (Belo Horizonte)


	Atlético Mineiro		América Mineiro

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.58	3.55	5.9
	1.61	3.45	5.75
	1.56	3.54	6.16
	1.53	3.25	5.75
	1.53	3.45	6.39	Watch
	1.61	3.4	6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.57 ↓ (1.6)	3.44 ↓ (3.51)	5.99 ↑ (5.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético Mineiro
58.2%

Draw
26.6%

América Mineiro
15.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57%

26%

17%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.5%

25.3%

16.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético Mineiro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

América Mineiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Mineiro than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for América Mineiro than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

Atlético Mineiro - América Mineiro Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Everson (G) 2. Natanael 4. Ruan Tressoldi 14. Vitor Hugo 16. Lodi R. 21. Franco A. 8. Maycon 30. Victor Hugo 10. Gustavo Scarpa 92. Dudu 7. Hulk (C)	1. Gustavo (G) 3. Nathan Pelae 45. Ricardo Silva (C) 2. Emerson Santos 96. Artur 97. Val Soares 8. Felipe Amaral 26. Maguinho 20. Paulo Victor 9. Willian Bigode 21. Eduardo Person
Substitutes
6. Alonso J. 11. Bernard 9. Cassierra M. 28. Cuello 1. Gabriel Delfim (G) 17. Igor Gomes 27. Minda A. 20. Patrick Silva 25. Perez T. 23. Preciado A. 19. Reinier 3. Roman I.	16. Ale 5. Elizari F. 88. Jhonatan Lima 22. Leo Alaba 6. Paulinho 4. Rafa Barcelos 77. Segovia M. 11. Thauan 19. William (G) 33. Yago Santos 10. Yago Souza 67. Yarlen
Coaches
Goncalves L.	Alberto Valentim

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
17', Ruan Tressoldi 🟨,
29', Nathan Pelae 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Ricardo Silva 🟨,
52', 1 - 0, Dudu ⚽, Gustavo Scarpa (A),
58', Paulo Victor 🟨,
63', Willian Bigode ↓, Thauan ↑,
76', Maycon ↓, Igor Gomes ↑,
76', Dudu ↓, Cuello ↑,
80', Maguinho ↓, Leo Alaba ↑,
80', Paulo Victor ↓, Yarlen ↑,
86', Val Soares ↓, Yago Souza ↑,
86', Artur ↓, Paulinho ↑,
90', Natanael ↓, Preciado A. ↑,
90', Vitor Hugo ↓, Bernard ↑,
90+4', 1 - 1, Yarlen ⚽, Yago Souza (A),
90+6', Gustavo 🟨,

Preview

First leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atlético MG won 1.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

In this match, Atlético MG is the team to beat.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Atlético MG won 8 matches, drew 9 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 28:17. (average 1.4:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Atlético MG won 4 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 15:7. (average 1.5:0.7).

Last Results with these Odds

Atlético Mineiro - the odds 1.6 are the expected chance of winning is 56.99%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético Mineiro
Brazilian Campeonato Mineiro
14.02.26	Itabirito - Atlético Mineiro	2:7 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
11.02.26	Atlético Mineiro - Remo	3:3 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Mineiro
07.02.26	Atlético Mineiro - Athletic Club	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
04.02.26	Red Bull Bragantino - Atlético Mineiro	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Mineiro
31.01.26	Pouso Alegre - Atlético Mineiro	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 WTTLW
- América Mineiro
Brazilian Campeonato Mineiro
14.02.26	América Mineiro - North Esporte Clube	2:1 ✺
08.02.26	Cruzeiro - América Mineiro	2:0 ✺
31.01.26	América Mineiro - URT	1:0 ✺
24.01.26	Uberlândia - América Mineiro	1:1 ✺
21.01.26	América Mineiro - Atlético Mineiro	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 WLWTT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Mineiro
21.01.26	América Mineiro - Atlético Mineiro	1:1
15.03.25	América Mineiro - Atlético Mineiro	1:0
08.03.25	Atlético Mineiro - América Mineiro	4:0
29.01.25	Atlético Mineiro - América Mineiro	1:1
17.03.24	América Mineiro - Atlético Mineiro	2:1
09.03.24	Atlético Mineiro - América Mineiro	2:0
24.02.24	América Mineiro - Atlético Mineiro	1:1

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