Match Info

Serie C - Group A - Round 10

Date: 17 October 2025, Friday

Location: Stadio Silvio Piola (Novara)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	SKY Go Italia


	Novara		Union ArzignanoChiampo

	1	X	2
				Watch
				Watch
	2.08	3.1	3.45
	2.13	3.03	3.83
	2.12	3.06	3.61	Watch
	2.12	3.06	3.33	Watch
	2.3	2.95	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.15 ↓ (2.35)	3.04 ↑ (3)	3.41 ↑ (2.98)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Novara
42.8%

Draw
30.3%

Union ArzignanoChiampo
26.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.9%

30.5%

30.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.1%

27.5%

34%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Novara has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

Union ArzignanoChiampo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Novara than the current prediction. (-7.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Novara that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Union ArzignanoChiampo than the current prediction. (+7.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Union ArzignanoChiampo could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	50%	0%

Novara - Union ArzignanoChiampo Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Novara will win (votes: 4 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Novara: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Boseggia E. (G) 70. Valdesi A. 5. Bertoncini D. 26. Lorenzini F. 72. Agyemang G. 36. Arboscello R. 19. Collodel R. 8. Di Cosmo L. 10. Donadio C. 90. Perini G. 7. Lanini E.	22. Manfrin F. (G) 26. Boccia S. 27. Coppola A. 33. Boffelli A. 13. Cariolato F. 6. Lakti E. 15. Bianchi N. 4. Chiarello R. 23. Bernardi E. 32. Nanni N. 9. Mattioli A.
Substitutes
9. Alberti T. 99. Basso G. 6. Citi A. 65. Cortese A. 71. D'Alessio L. 17. Dell'Erba D. 27. Deseri G. 15. Khailoti O. 3. Lartey S. 11. Ledonne N. 4. Malaspina M. 23. Morosini L. 16. Raffaelli M. (G) 21. Ranieri R. 12. Rossetti M. (G)	17. Castegnaro J. 8. Damiani M. 7. Lanzi E. 12. Lotto R. (G) 57. Milillo A. 10. Minesso M. 16. Moretti M. 1. Nespola M. (G) 5. Rossoni S. 25. Spaggiari R. 19. Toniolo F. 44. Valentini F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
38', Chiarello R. 🟨,
41', Boccia S. 🟨,
44', Bernardi E. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Perini G. ↓, Morosini L. ↑,
46', Lorenzini F. ↓, Khailoti O. ↑,
63', 1 - 0, Lanini E. ⚽,
64', Chiarello R. ↓, Moretti M. ↑,
64', Bernardi E. ↓, Damiani M. ↑,
70', Di Cosmo L. ↓, Basso G. ↑,
70', Lanini E. ↓, Alberti T. ↑,
75', Nanni N. ↓, Minesso M. ↑,
75', Lakti E. ↓, Castegnaro J. ↑,
78', Collodel R. ↓, Ranieri R. ↑,
83', Boccia S. ↓, Lanzi E. ↑,
89', Morosini L. 🟨,
90+1', Bertoncini D. 🟨,
90+1', Minesso M. 🟨,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 17 in the zone Serie C ~ Play Out and 16 in the zone Serie C ~ Play Out).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Novara won 2.

Neither of the teams is performing well right now.

Novara will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Novara won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 8:3. (average 1.1:0.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Novara won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:2. (average 1.3:0.7).

Last Results with these Odds

Novara - the odds 2.35 are the expected chance of winning is 38.88%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Union ArzignanoChiampo - the odds 2.98 are the expected chance of winning is 30.66%, but this team recently wins 40% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Novara Calcio
Italian Serie C Group A
11.10.25	Giana Erminio - Novara	0:0 ✺
05.10.25	Novara - Triestina	0:0 ✺
28.09.25	AlbinoLeffe - Novara	3:2 ✺
25.09.25	Brescia - Novara	1:1 ✺
21.09.25	Novara - Pro Vercelli	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 TTLTL
- Union ArzignanoChiampo
Italian Serie C Group A
12.10.25	Ospitaletto - Union ArzignanoChiampo	2:1 ✺
05.10.25	Union ArzignanoChiampo - AlbinoLeffe	0:0 ✺
28.09.25	Trento - Union ArzignanoChiampo	2:2 ✺
25.09.25	Union ArzignanoChiampo - Alcione	1:3 ✺
21.09.25	Triestina - Union ArzignanoChiampo	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6 LTTLL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group A
05.04.25	Novara - Union ArzignanoChiampo	1:0
24.11.24	Union ArzignanoChiampo - Novara	0:2
17.02.24	Union ArzignanoChiampo - Novara	0:0
13.10.23	Novara - Union ArzignanoChiampo	0:1
08.04.23	Union ArzignanoChiampo - Novara	1:1
04.12.22	Novara - Union ArzignanoChiampo	3:1
Italian Serie D - Group A
25.05.22	Union ArzignanoChiampo - Novara	0:1

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