Match Info

Serie C - Group A - Round 10

Date: 18 October 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: AlbinoLeffe (Zanica) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Gavini S. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Italy	17:30	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia


	AlbinoLeffe		Novara

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.30	3.10	2.70
	2.3	3.05	2.9	Watch
	2.48	3.1	3.1
	2.32	3.21	2.9	Watch
	2.45	2.9	3.05
	2.45	3.22	2.86	Watch
	2.31	3.1	2.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.37 ↑ (2.15)	3.1 ↓ (3.11)	2.92 ↓ (3.32)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

AlbinoLeffe
38.8%

Draw
29.7%

Novara
31.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

42.8%

29.6%

27.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.4%

28.5%

26.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

AlbinoLeffe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

Novara has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for AlbinoLeffe than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for AlbinoLeffe, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Novara than the current prediction. (-4.8%)

AlbinoLeffe - Novara Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Michielin M. (G) 16. Gusu M. 4. Potop S. (C) 23. Sottini E. 18. Orfei A. 19. Agostinelli M. 5. Mandelli A. 8. Lombardi A. 77. Ballo L. 70. Desogus J. 11. Sali G.	33. Brancolini F. (G) 28. Cannavaro A. 5. Lorenzini F. 15. Khailoti O. 70. Valdesi A. 99. Basso G. 19. Collodel R. (C) 8. Dell'Erba D. 23. Zambataro E. 20. da Graca C. 14. Romano M.
Substitutes
12. Baldi G. (G) 2. Barba B. 6. Boloca G. 17. Ciko S. 71. Colombi A. 32. Faggi F. 21. Franchini F. 7. Garattoni A. 1. Generali F. (G) 14. Sassi S. 3. Sciacca G. 24. Simonelli T. 9. Stanzani L.	22. Anfossi P. (G) 36. Arboscello R. 1. Boseggia E. (G) 31. Canneti J. 39. Chieregato L. 71. D'Alessio L. 32. De Nicolo M. 7. Lanini E. 11. Ledonne N. 58. Miceli M. 6. Nichetti M.
Coaches
Zaffaroni M.	Iori M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
16', 0 - 1, Dell'Erba D. ⚽, Basso G. (A),
21', Gusu M. ↓, Barba B. ↑,
30', Zambataro E. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Lombardi A. ↓, Faggi F. ↑,
46', da Graca C. ↓, Lanini E. ↑,
49', 1 - 1, Sali G. ⚽, Faggi F. (A),
53', 1 - 2, Romano M. ⚽, Zambataro E. (A),
56', Khailoti O. 🟨,
62', Dell'Erba D. ↓, Ledonne N. ↑,
67', Collodel R. 🟨,
68', Zambataro E. ↓, D'Alessio L. ↑,
68', Collodel R. ↓, Arboscello R. ↑,
78', Orfei A. ↓, Sassi S. ↑,
78', Agostinelli M. ↓, Ciko S. ↑,
84', Ledonne N. 🟨,
85', 2 - 2, Faggi F. ⚽,
86', Faggi F. 🟨,
87', Romano M. ↓, Nichetti M. ↑,
90', Barba B. 🟨,
90+1', Desogus J. ↓, Stanzani L. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, AlbinoLeffe won 1.

The recent form of both competitors has been marked by mixed results.

AlbinoLeffe could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 16 head-to-head meetings, AlbinoLeffe has recorded 5 wins, 7 draws, and 4 losses, with a goal aggregate of 17:18 (averaging 1.1:1.1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for AlbinoLeffe against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 4 draws, and 0 losses, with 9:5 goals (averaging 1.3:0.7 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
16	Novara	11	2	4	5	10:16	-6	10

Last Results with these Odds

Novara - the odds 3.32 are the expected chance of winning is 27.69%, but this team recently wins 20% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UC AlbinoLeffe
Italian Serie C Group A
10.10.26	Lumezzane - AlbinoLeffe	3:2 ✺
03.10.26	Cittadella - AlbinoLeffe	1:2 ✺
27.09.26	AlbinoLeffe - Alcione	1:1 ✺
20.09.26	Juventus U23 - AlbinoLeffe	3:5 ✺
17.09.26	AlbinoLeffe - Union ArzignanoChiampo	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.2 LWTWL
- Novara Calcio
Italian Serie C Group A
10.10.26	Novara - Cittadella	0:2 ✺
04.10.26	Dolomiti Bellunesi - Novara	1:2 ✺
26.09.26	Novara - Ospitaletto	0:2 ✺
20.09.26	Novara - Carpi	2:2 ✺
17.09.26	Lumezzane - Novara	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 LWLTT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group A
11.02.26	Novara - AlbinoLeffe	2:2
28.09.25	AlbinoLeffe - Novara	3:2
02.03.25	AlbinoLeffe - Novara	1:1
19.10.24	Novara - AlbinoLeffe	2:0
10.03.24	AlbinoLeffe - Novara	0:0
04.11.23	Novara - AlbinoLeffe	0:3
05.02.23	Novara - AlbinoLeffe	1:2

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