Match Info

Serie C - Group A - Round 7

Date: 28 September 2025, Sunday

Location: AlbinoLeffe (Zanica)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 256


	AlbinoLeffe		Novara

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.38	3	2.98
	2.54	3.15	3.11
	12.18	7.05	1.17	Watch
	2.49	3.22	2.8	Watch
	2.25	3.2	2.93
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.37 ↑ (2.26)	3.92 ↑ (3.4)	2.6 ↓ (2.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

AlbinoLeffe
26.4%

Draw
29.3%

Novara
44.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.9%

27.2%

31.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.1%

25.8%

30.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

AlbinoLeffe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-14.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that AlbinoLeffe's form might have worsened.

Novara has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Novara's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for AlbinoLeffe than the current prediction. (+16.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for AlbinoLeffe, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Novara than the current prediction. (-14%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Novara, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

AlbinoLeffe - Novara Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Di Chiara S. (G) 23. Sottini E. 4. Potop S. (C) 30. Baroni R. 28. Gusu M. 42. Lupinetti T. 5. Mandelli A. 18. Parlati S. 20. Ambrosini M. 8. Lombardi A. 11. Sali G.	1. Boseggia E. (G) 5. Bertoncini D. 26. Lorenzini F. 15. Khailoti O. 70. Valdesi A. 36. Arboscello R. 21. Ranieri R. (C) 19. Collodel R. 72. Agyemang G. 20. da Graca C. 10. Donadio C.
Substitutes
19. Agostinelli M. 21. Angeloni M. 6. Astrologo A. 2. Barba B. 26. Bonfanti R. (G) 45. Borghi E. 58. Brighenti R. 46. Carrara P. (G) 10. De Paoli A. 7. Garattoni A. 79. Lekaj K. 99. Sarr A. M. 34. Svidercoschi S.	6. Citi A. 65. Cortese A. 71. D'Alessio L. 17. Dell'Erba D. 25. Foti 3. Lartey S. 11. Ledonne N. 4. Malaspina M. 23. Morosini L. 90. Perini G. 16. Raffaelli M. (G) 12. Rossetti M. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
4', 0 - 1, da Graca C. ⚽,
7', 0 - 2, Collodel R. ⚽,
17', 1 - 2, Lombardi A. ⚽,
28', Arboscello R. 🟨,
31', Arboscello R. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Sottini E. ↓, Svidercoschi S. ↑,
61', Parlati S. 🟨,
61', da Graca C. ↓, Perini G. ↑,
61', Valdesi A. ↓, D'Alessio L. ↑,
66', Parlati S. ↓, De Paoli A. ↑,
72', Potop S. 🟨,
74', 2 - 2, Lombardi A. ⚽,
75', Bertoncini D. ↓, Citi A. ↑,
78', Mandelli A. ↓, Astrologo A. ↑,
83', Lupinetti T. ↓, Garattoni A. ↑,
83', Sali G. ↓, Sarr A. M. ↑,
86', Donadio C. ↓, Dell'Erba D. ↑,
90+1', 3 - 2, Sarr A. M. ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, AlbinoLeffe won 2.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, AlbinoLeffe won 4 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 12:14. (average 0.9:1).

Including home matches between the teams, AlbinoLeffe won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:3. (average 1:0.5).

Last Results with these Odds

AlbinoLeffe - the odds 2.26 are the expected chance of winning is 40.95%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Novara - the odds 2.9 are the expected chance of winning is 31.9%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UC AlbinoLeffe
Italian Serie C Group A
25.09.25	Pro Patria - AlbinoLeffe	0:3 ✺
21.09.25	AlbinoLeffe - Cittadella	2:1 ✺
14.09.25	Trento - AlbinoLeffe	2:2 ✺
06.09.25	AlbinoLeffe - Renate	2:3 ✺
29.08.25	Pro Vercelli - AlbinoLeffe	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 WWTLL
- Novara Calcio
Italian Serie C Group A
25.09.25	Brescia - Novara	1:1 ✺
21.09.25	Novara - Pro Vercelli	0:1 ✺
14.09.25	Pro Patria - Novara	0:0 ✺
07.09.25	Novara - Trento	1:1 ✺
31.08.25	Dolomiti Bellunesi - Novara	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 TLTTT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group A
02.03.25	AlbinoLeffe - Novara	1:1
19.10.24	Novara - AlbinoLeffe	2:0
10.03.24	AlbinoLeffe - Novara	0:0
04.11.23	Novara - AlbinoLeffe	0:3
05.02.23	Novara - AlbinoLeffe	1:2
09.10.22	AlbinoLeffe - Novara	3:1
21.03.21	AlbinoLeffe - Novara	1:1

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