Match Info

Serie C - Second stage - Round 6

Date: 11 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Estádio Eládio de Barros Carvalho (Recife)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, DAZN Brasil, IT tv Plus, Sky+, SportyNet+, Zapping


	Náutico Capibaribe		Brusque

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.48	3.55	6.5	Watch
	1.51	3.75	7.32
	1.10	8.15	22.22	Watch
	1.48	3.54	7.1	Watch
	1.88	3.2	4.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.49 ↓ (1.85)	4.44 ↑ (3)	9.49 ↑ (3.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Náutico Capibaribe
67%

Draw
22.5%

Brusque
10.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48%

29.6%

22.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50%

30.8%

21.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Náutico Capibaribe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+19%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Náutico Capibaribe's performance.

Brusque has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Brusque might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Náutico Capibaribe than the current prediction. (-17%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Náutico Capibaribe that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Brusque than the current prediction. (+11.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Brusque could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	25%	0%

Náutico Capibaribe - Brusque Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Náutico will win (votes: 3 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
19. Muriel Becker (G) 2. Arnaldo 80. Bruno Mezenga 33. Carlinhos 11. Helio Borges 23. Igor Fernandes 25. Mateus Silva 41. Samuel 7. Vinicius (C) 44. Vitinho 22. Wenderson	1. Matheus Nogueira (G) 66. Alex Ruan (C) 50. Bernardo 17. Clinton U. 27. Diego Mathias 2. Everton Alemao 23. Guilherme Pira 30. Jean Mangabeira 97. Mateus Pivo 9. Olavio 4. Torres J.
Substitutes
21. Felipe Redaelli 8. Guilherme 70. Igor Bolt 13. Indio 40. Joao Maistro 15. Kayon 12. Kelvin 10. Lucas Cardoso 17. Marcos Ytalo 34. Otusanya O. 9. Paulo Sergio 1. Wellerson R. (G)	60. Ailton Santos 22. Andre Luiz (G) 7. Biel Fonseca 80. Danielzinho 20. Douglas Oliveira 21. Jhonny Lucas 28. Mauricio Ribeiro 16. Roberto Rosa 10. Robinho 99. Robinho 18. Thomaz
Coaches
Helio dos Anjos	Franco B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
33', 1 - 0, Helio Borges ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Guilherme Pira ↓, Biel Fonseca ↑,
46', Mateus Pivo 🟨,
48', Bruno Mezenga 🟨,
59', Carlinhos ↓, Joao Maistro ↑,
69', Bruno Mezenga ↓, Paulo Sergio ↑,
70', 🟨,
70', Helio Borges ↓, Igor Bolt ↑,
75', 1 - 1, Mateus Silva (Own goal),
79', Vitinho ↓, Lucas Cardoso ↑,
80', Wenderson ↓, Otusanya O. ↑,
80', Bernardo ↓, Roberto Rosa ↑,
82', 🟨,
87', 2 - 1, Paulo Sergio ⚽,
89', 🟨,
90+1', Jean Mangabeira ↓, Robinho ↑,
90+1', Clinton U. ↓, Douglas Oliveira ↑,
90+3', Arnaldo 🟨,

Preview

A great opportunity to watch a clash of neighbouring teams in the table (ranked 4 and 3)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Náutico won 3.

Náutico has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Brusque is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Brusque may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Brusque has had a series of home games.

In this match, Náutico is considered a favorite.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Náutico won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 10:8. (average 1.4:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Náutico won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1. (average 0.7:0.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Náutico Capibaribe
Brazilian Serie C
04.10.25	Guarani - Náutico Capibaribe	1:1 ✺
27.09.25	Ponte Preta - Náutico Capibaribe	1:1 ✺
20.09.25	Náutico Capibaribe - Ponte Preta	0:1 ✺
13.09.25	Náutico Capibaribe - Guarani	0:2 ✺
07.09.25	Brusque - Náutico Capibaribe	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.1 TTLLW
- Brusque FC
Brazilian Copa Santa Catarina
06.10.25	Brusque - Chapecoense	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie C
04.10.25	Brusque - Ponte Preta	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa Santa Catarina
29.09.25	Brusque - Concórdia	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie C
27.09.25	Brusque - Guarani	3:2 ✺
Brazilian Copa Santa Catarina
24.09.25	Concórdia - Brusque	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 TWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie C
07.09.25	Brusque - Náutico Capibaribe	0:1
04.05.25	Náutico Capibaribe - Brusque	0:0
19.08.23	Brusque - Náutico Capibaribe	2:2
Brazilian Serie B
09.09.22	Náutico Capibaribe - Brusque	1:0
04.06.22	Brusque - Náutico Capibaribe	1:2
02.11.21	Brusque - Náutico Capibaribe	4:3
24.07.21	Náutico Capibaribe - Brusque	1:1

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