Match Info

BRAZIL: Serie C - First stage - Round 18

Date: 17 August 2024, Saturday

Location: Estádio Eládio de Barros Carvalho (Recife)

Referee: Moraes de Sousa A. D. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, DAZN Brasil, IT tv Plus, Nosso Futebol+, Sky+, Zapping


	Náutico Capibaribe		Ferroviário Fortaleza

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.42	4.1	6
	1.44	4	6.5	Watch
	1.44	4.2	7.31
	1.44	3.94	7.16	Watch
	1.41	4.05	7.1	Watch
	1.44	4	6.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.43 ↓ (1.48)	4.05 ↑ (3.9)	6.76 ↑ (6.18)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Náutico Capibaribe
63.9%

Draw
22.6%

Ferroviário Fortaleza
13.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.8%

23.4%

14.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.7%

22.4%

14.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Náutico Capibaribe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

Ferroviário Fortaleza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Náutico Capibaribe than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ferroviário Fortaleza than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Náutico Capibaribe - Ferroviário Fortaleza Predictions

Users Predictions: Náutico Capibaribe will win (8 of 8 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Renan Braganca (G) 2. Arnaldo 80. Bruno Mezenga 10. Gustavo Maia 12. Islan 57. Kaike 8. Marco Antonio 20. Patrick Allan 9. Paulo Sergio 4. Perema 25. Sousa	1. Douglas Dias (G) 99. Ciel (C) 6. Ernandes 19. Israel 26. Leo Gobo 5. Lincoln 7. Marcelinho 10. Nicholas 22. Vinicius Alves 28. Vinicius Paulista 27. Willian Rocha
Substitutes
78. Andrey 35. de Sousa Oliveira T. 36. Diego Matos 96. Felipe Ferreira 95. Iran 13. Kauan 15. Kayon 1. Lucas Maticoli (G) 72. Marco Antonio 82. Mateus Ludke 70. Matheus Melo 26. Wendel Lessa	3. Alisson 18. Caio Rangel 11. Gabryel Martins 32. Geaze (G) 14. Igor Dutra 21. Joelson 9. Kiuan 23. Mattheus Silva 17. Wilker
Coaches
Bruno Pivetti	Damaceno R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
21', 1 - 0, Marco Antonio ⚽,
26', 2 - 0, Paulo Sergio ⚽,
44', 3 - 0, Islan ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Israel ↓, Igor Dutra ↑,
46', Sousa ↓, Marco Antonio ↑,
48', 4 - 0, Marco Antonio ⚽,
53', Ernandes ↓, Wilker ↑,
54', Vinicius Paulista ↓, Mattheus Silva ↑,
55', 4 - 1, Ciel ⚽,
58', Marco Antonio ↓, Matheus Melo ↑,
58', Bruno Mezenga ↓, Felipe Ferreira ↑,
68', Gustavo Maia 🟨,
68', Leo Gobo 🟨,
73', Marcelinho ↓, Kiuan ↑,
75', Islan ↓, Iran ↑,
80', Lincoln 🟨,
90', Patrick Allan ↓, Wendel Lessa ↑,

Preview

This match a meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will be held (ranked 10 and 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie D).

Recent matches Náutico is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Ferroviário is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

In this match Náutico is certain favorite.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Náutico won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 4-3.

Including matches at home between the teams Náutico won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Náutico Capibaribe
Brazilian Serie C
11.08.24	Náutico Capibaribe - Botafogo PB	2:0 ✺
04.08.24	CS Alagoano - Náutico Capibaribe	2:2 ✺
31.07.24	Náutico Capibaribe - Ypiranga	1:2 ✺
27.07.24	Sampaio Corrêa - Náutico Capibaribe	1:1 ✺
21.07.24	Náutico Capibaribe - Athletic Club	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 WTLTT
- Ferroviário Fortaleza
Brazilian Serie C
10.08.24	Caxias - Ferroviário Fortaleza	2:1 ✺
05.08.24	Ferroviário Fortaleza - Sampaio Corrêa	1:1 ✺
27.07.24	Ferroviário Fortaleza - CS Alagoano	1:1 ✺
22.07.24	Confiança - Ferroviário Fortaleza	1:1 ✺
17.07.24	Ypiranga - Ferroviário Fortaleza	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 LTTTL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
22.03.23	Náutico Capibaribe - Ferroviário Fortaleza	3:2
Brazilian Serie C
15.07.19	Ferroviário Fortaleza - Náutico Capibaribe	0:1
12.05.19	Náutico Capibaribe - Ferroviário Fortaleza	0:1

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