Match Info

BRAZIL: CAMPEONATO PERNAMBUCANO - PLAY OFFS - QUARTER-FINALS

Date: 5 April 2023, Wednesday

Location: Estádio Eládio de Barros Carvalho (Recife)

Referee: Martins M. (Bra)


	Náutico Capibaribe		Salgueiro

	1	X	2
	1.38	4.1	7
	1.42	3.75	5.8
	1.31	4.06	7.55
	1.35	4	8.5
	1.32	4.6	9
	1.4	4.2	6.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.36 ↓ (1.63)	4.12 ↑ (3.45)	7.44 ↑ (4.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Náutico Capibaribe
66%

Draw
21.9%

Salgueiro
12.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.5%

26.2%

18.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.5%

25.3%

17.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Náutico Capibaribe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Náutico Capibaribe's performance.

Salgueiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Salgueiro might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Náutico Capibaribe than the current prediction. (-8.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Náutico Capibaribe that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Salgueiro than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Salgueiro could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Náutico Capibaribe - Salgueiro Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

During this match we will see a game between leader and a team of mid-table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Campeonato Pernambucano (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Campeonato Pernambucano (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Náutico won 5.

Náutico is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Salgueiro is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Salgueiro could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Náutico is the unquestionable favorite.

Our prediction for today's Náutico to win the game is with odds 1.38.

Last 19 head-to-head matches Náutico won 12 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 31-16.

Including matches at home between the teams Náutico won 8 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 20-6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Náutico Capibaribe
Brazilian Campeonato Pernambucano
01.04.23	Náutico Capibaribe - Petrolina	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
26.03.23	ABC - Náutico Capibaribe	3:1 ✺
22.03.23	Náutico Capibaribe - Ferroviário Fortaleza	3:2 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Pernambucano
18.03.23	Maguary - Náutico Capibaribe	0:1 ✺
15.03.23	Íbis - Náutico Capibaribe	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 WLWWW
- Salgueiro
Brazilian Campeonato Pernambucano
01.04.23	Salgueiro - Afogados da Ingazeira	3:2 ✺
19.03.23	Retrô Brasil - Salgueiro	1:0 ✺
12.03.23	Náutico Capibaribe - Salgueiro	2:0 ✺
28.02.23	Salgueiro - CA Porto	0:0 ✺
11.02.23	Belo Jardim - Salgueiro	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 WLLTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Pernambucano
12.03.23	Náutico Capibaribe - Salgueiro	2:0
02.03.22	Náutico Capibaribe - Salgueiro	1:0
07.04.21	Salgueiro - Náutico Capibaribe	2:3
19.07.20	Salgueiro - Náutico Capibaribe	1:2
27.02.19	Náutico Capibaribe - Salgueiro	1:0
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
02.02.19	Salgueiro - Náutico Capibaribe	1:1
Brazilian Serie C
16.07.18	Salgueiro - Náutico Capibaribe	1:1

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