Match Info

Serie D - Play Offs - 1/16-finals

Date: 4 July 2026, Saturday

Location: Estádio Doutor Hercílio Luz (Itajaí)


	Náutico Marcílio Dias		Portuguesa

	1	X	2
	2.95	2.55	2.50
	3.00	2.55	2.55
	3.10	2.71	2.83
	2.95	2.86	2.51	Watch
	3.05	2.35	2.80
	2.95	2.74	2.74
Avarage Now (Initially)	3 ↑ (2.88)	2.63 ↓ (2.78)	2.66 ↑ (2.47)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Náutico Marcílio Dias
30.6%

Draw
34.9%

Portuguesa
34.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.3%

32.3%

36.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.2%

33.2%

35.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Náutico Marcílio Dias has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

Portuguesa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Náutico Marcílio Dias than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Portuguesa than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

Náutico Marcílio Dias - Portuguesa Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
4', 0 - 1, Igor Torres ⚽,
15', 1 - 1, Davi Torres ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

First leg.

Recent performances by Marcílio Dias have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Portuguesa is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Náutico Marcílio Dias - the odds 2.88 are the expected chance of winning is 31.27%, but this team recently wins 11% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Náutico Marcílio Dias
Brazilian Serie D
28.06.26	Náutico Marcílio Dias - FC Cascavel	2:1 ✺
21.06.26	FC Cascavel - Náutico Marcílio Dias	2:2 ✺
07.06.26	São-Joseense - Náutico Marcílio Dias	0:0 ✺
01.06.26	Náutico Marcílio Dias - Azuriz	0:1 ✺
24.05.26	EC São José Porto Alegre - Náutico Marcílio Dias	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 WTTLT
- Portuguesa SP
Brazilian Serie D
27.06.26	Portuguesa - Sampaio Corrêa FE	1:0 ✺
20.06.26	Sampaio Corrêa FE - Portuguesa	1:1 ✺
06.06.26	Portuguesa - Portuguesa RJ	2:0 ✺
30.05.26	Pouso Alegre - Portuguesa	1:2 ✺
23.05.26	Portuguesa - America RJ	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WTWWW

Náutico Marcílio Dias - Portuguesa: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide