Match Info

Meistriliiga - Round 11

Date: 10 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Hiiu Stadium (Tallinn)

Referee: Kulljastinen K. (Est)

Where to Watch on TV:


Estonia	Jalgpall.ee, Soccernet TV


	Nõmme Kalju		Flora Tallinn

	1	X	2
	2.12	3.55	2.92	Watch
	2.22	3.65	2.98
	2.13	3.78	2.98	Watch
	2.1	3.3	2.9
	2.12	3.44	2.97	Watch
	2.08	3.4	2.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.13 ↓ (2.27)	3.52 ↓ (3.7)	2.94 ↑ (2.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nõmme Kalju
43%

Draw
26%

Flora Tallinn
31.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.2%

24.7%

35.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.3%

24.8%

35%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nõmme Kalju has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

Flora Tallinn has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nõmme Kalju than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Flora Tallinn than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Nõmme Kalju - Flora Tallinn Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Nõmme Kalju (1.48) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Nõmme Kalju (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Perk H. (C) 78. Mashchenko D. 46. Vukusic R. 20. Tambedou M. 26. Siht R. 8. Musolitin O. 59. Vastsuk B. 10. Ivanov N. 88. Sotsugov D. 27. Mannilaan M. 7. Tarassenkov D.	99. Kivila K. (G) 2. Kalmokov N. 23. Kolobov M. 3. Kollo A. 26. Tovstik S. 32. Kreida V. 18. Valdmets R. 20. Zenjov S. 14. Varjund T. 29. Alamaa S. 11. Sappinen R. (C)
Substitutes
21. Baptista T. 9. Chinemeren G. 24. Iljin A. 30. Jabir I. 6. Kask K. 5. Korre U. 2. Lillemets J. 17. Lotar Eyang E. E. 22. Nikolajev A. 11. Orlov M. 69. Pavlov M. (G)	67. Antonov I. 33. Grunvald E. (G) 21. Kaares A. 89. Kalimullin M. 7. Kuraksin D. 24. Pihela O. 8. Teevali T. 17. Usta T. 5. Vaher A. 6. Veering R.
Coaches
Andreev N.	Vasiliev K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
48', Sotsugov D. 🟨,
51', 0 - 1, Tovstik S. ⚽, Kalmokov N. (A),
54', Alamaa S. 🟨,
60', Sotsugov D. ↓, Jabir I. ↑,
60', Ivanov N. ↓, Orlov M. ↑,
63', Perk H. 🟨,
65', Musolitin O. ↓, Kask K. ↑,
73', Alamaa S. ↓, Kuraksin D. ↑,
73', Varjund T. ↓, Antonov I. ↑,
81', Sappinen R. ↓, Usta T. ↑,
81', Kalmokov N. ↓, Teevali T. ↑,
83', Vastsuk B. ↓, Baptista T. ↑,
90+4', 🟨,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nõmme Kalju won 4.

Nõmme Kalju has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Flora is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Nõmme Kalju may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Nõmme Kalju won 6 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 23:25. (average 1.2:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Nõmme Kalju won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:8. (average 1.2:0.9).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Flora	29	18	1	10	59:39	20	55
4	Kalju	29	15	5	9	52:27	25	50

Last Results with these Odds

Flora Tallinn - the odds 2.6 are the expected chance of winning is 35.11%, but this team recently wins 78% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nõmme Kalju FC
Estonian Meistriliiga
01.05.26	Narva Trans - Nõmme Kalju	0:3 ✺
26.04.26	Nõmme Kalju - Pärnu Vaprus	1:2 ✺
22.04.26	Nõmme Kalju - Nõmme United	7:1 ✺
19.04.26	Paide LM - Nõmme Kalju	1:0 ✺
12.04.26	Nõmme Kalju - Levadia Tallinn	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 WLWLT
- Flora Tallinn
Estonian Cup
05.05.26	Flora Tallinn - Narva Trans	1:0 ✺
Estonian Meistriliiga
30.04.26	Flora Tallinn - Harju JK Laagri	5:0 ✺
26.04.26	Paide LM - Flora Tallinn	1:2 ✺
22.04.26	Flora Tallinn - Narva Trans	6:0 ✺
19.04.26	Levadia Tallinn - Flora Tallinn	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Estonian Meistriliiga
15.03.26	Flora Tallinn - Nõmme Kalju	0:1
Estonian Super Cup
28.02.26	Flora Tallinn - Nõmme Kalju	1:3
Estonian Meistriliiga
28.09.25	Nõmme Kalju - Flora Tallinn	3:1
06.07.25	Flora Tallinn - Nõmme Kalju	1:0
27.04.25	Flora Tallinn - Nõmme Kalju	2:3
05.04.25	Nõmme Kalju - Flora Tallinn	1:2
Club Friendly
01.02.25	Flora Tallinn - Nõmme Kalju	1:0

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