Match Info

Meistriliiga - Round 33

Date: 25 October 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Hiiu Stadium (Tallinn) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Osomkov G. (Est)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Estonia	14:30	Jalgpall.ee, Soccernet TV


	Nõmme Kalju		Flora Tallinn

	1	X	2
	2.30	3.40	2.55
	2.10	3.60	2.90
	3.26	3.68	2.07
	2.68	3.51	2.43	Watch
	3.2	3.6	2.03
	3.03	3.86	2.09	Watch
	2.9	3.6	2
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.78 ↑ (2.46)	3.61 ↓ (3.8)	2.3 ↓ (2.46)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nõmme Kalju
33.5%

Draw
25.9%

Flora Tallinn
40.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

37.8%

24.5%

37.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.5%

24.3%

38.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nõmme Kalju has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

Flora Tallinn has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nõmme Kalju than the current prediction. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Flora Tallinn than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	25%	50%

Nõmme Kalju - Flora Tallinn Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Nõmme Kalju will win (votes: 1 - 25%). Flora will win (votes: 2 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Perk H. (C) 78. Mashchenko D. 50. Podholjuzin M. 46. Vukusic R. 20. Tambedou M. 74. Jekimov F. 21. Baptista T. 11. Orlov M. 4. Borolinstsikov A. 17. Lotar Eyang E. E. 27. Mannilaan M.	33. Grunvald E. (G) 67. Antonov I. 23. Kolobov M. 6. Veering R. 26. Tovstik S. 18. Valdmets R. 32. Kreida V. 29. Alamaa S. 14. Varjund T. (C) 20. Zenjov S. 50. Sorga E.
Substitutes
30. Jabir I. 96. Kindel J. (G) 5. Korre U. 2. Lillemets J. 22. Nikolajev A. 69. Pavlov M. (G) 14. Pihkva J. 59. Vastsuk B.	9. Alliku R. 4. Jekimov M. 89. Kalimullin M. 99. Kivila K. (G) 3. Kollo A. 7. Kuraksin D. 24. Pihela O. 53. Sammul R. 8. Teevali T. 17. Usta T. 55. Zotov D.
Coaches
Andreev N.	Mool K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
3', 1 - 0, Mannilaan M. ⚽, Lotar Eyang E. E. (A),
6', 2 - 0, Mannilaan M. ⚽,
13', 2 - 1, Zenjov S. ⚽, Alamaa S. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Valdmets R. ↓, Kalimullin M. ↑,
52', Borolinstsikov A. 🟨,
54', Sorga E. 🟨,
62', Sorga E. ↓, Alliku R. ↑,
62', Alamaa S. ↓, Kuraksin D. ↑,
74', Borolinstsikov A. ↓, Nikolajev A. ↑,
74', Orlov M. ↓, Jabir I. ↑,
79', Kreida V. 🟨,
83', Jekimov F. 🟨,
84', Baptista T. ↓, Korre U. ↑,
86', Alliku R. ↓, Usta T. ↑,
90', 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nõmme Kalju won 3.

The recent form of both competitors has been marked by mixed results.

Nõmme Kalju could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Nõmme Kalju has recorded 6 wins, 5 draws, and 9 losses, with a goal aggregate of 23:25 (averaging 1.2:1.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Nõmme Kalju against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, with 10:6 goals (averaging 1.3:0.8 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Flora	34	19	1	14	64:49	15	58
4	Kalju	33	16	6	11	56:34	22	54

Last Results with these Odds

Nõmme Kalju - the odds 2.46 are the expected chance of winning is 37.77%, but this team recently wins 11% of matches with these odds.

Flora Tallinn - the odds 2.46 are the expected chance of winning is 37.77%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nõmme Kalju FC
Estonian Meistriliiga
17.10.26	Nõmme United - Nõmme Kalju	3:0 ✺
13.10.26	Pärnu Vaprus - Nõmme Kalju	2:2 ✺
10.10.26	Nõmme Kalju - Harju JK Laagri	0:1 ✺
20.09.26	Tammeka - Nõmme Kalju	1:3 ✺
12.09.26	Nõmme Kalju - Narva Trans	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LTLWW
- Flora Tallinn
Estonian Meistriliiga
21.10.26	Harju JK Laagri - Flora Tallinn	3:1 ✺
18.10.26	Flora Tallinn - Tammeka	2:0 ✺
15.10.26	Flora Tallinn - Levadia Tallinn	1:3 ✺
11.10.26	Kuressaare - Flora Tallinn	2:0 ✺
20.09.26	Flora Tallinn - Pärnu Vaprus	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 LWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Estonian Meistriliiga
05.09.26	Flora Tallinn - Nõmme Kalju	2:1
10.05.26	Nõmme Kalju - Flora Tallinn	0:1
15.03.26	Flora Tallinn - Nõmme Kalju	0:1
Estonian Super Cup
28.02.26	Flora Tallinn - Nõmme Kalju	1:3
Estonian Meistriliiga
28.09.25	Nõmme Kalju - Flora Tallinn	3:1
06.07.25	Flora Tallinn - Nõmme Kalju	1:0
27.04.25	Flora Tallinn - Nõmme Kalju	2:3

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