Match Info

Meistriliiga - Round 19

Date: 10 July 2026, Friday

Location: Laagri kunstmurustaadion (Laagri)

Referee: Pukk M. (Est)

Where to Watch on TV:


Estonia	Jalgpall.ee, Soccernet TV
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Harju JK Laagri		Narva Trans

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.20	3.30	2.70
	2.07	3.50	3.05
	2.39	3.55	2.95
	2.01	3.87	3.19	Watch
	2.35	3.20	2.90
	2.25	3.55	2.93	Watch
	2.22	3.35	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.21 ↑ (2.15)	3.47 ↓ (3.52)	2.94 ↑ (2.92)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Harju JK Laagri
41.8%

Draw
26.6%

Narva Trans
31.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.6%

26%

31.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.2%

23.9%

34.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Harju JK Laagri has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

Narva Trans has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Harju JK Laagri than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Narva Trans than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	8.3%	8.3%

Harju JK Laagri - Narva Trans Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Harju JK Laagri will win (9 of 11 users predict this - 81.82%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.03% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Vainula J. (G) 7. Reimaa R. 3. Kaevats A. 24. Laur K. 18. Bah I. 13. Sillamaa R. 5. Kartau I. 6. Palutaja H. 19. Binate A. 53. Ndakala J. 16. Kriis K. (C)	27. Pareiko D. (G) 4. Ivanyushin A. 5. Campagna C. 25. Burjanadze S. 29. Kudriashov V. 7. Velijev M. 6. Slein G. (C) 22. Zuravljov E. 88. Besigirskis A. 47. Baljabkin N. 9. Doke J.
Substitutes
9. Eerme K. 47. Ennuste K. 4. Jarve A. 41. Kajari E. 17. Kelement M. 32. Kerge S. 22. Kesa M. 11. Kose A. 79. Meesit R. (G) 66. Roomussaar K. 23. Rudenko Daniil	8. Agaptsev S. 19. Elysee 12. Eriks Santos 14. Filatov A. 10. Gero A. 70. Imeh J. 16. Kondrattsev S. 28. Miranda da Silva K. 39. Poliakov D. 17. Skinjov A. 1. Zahharov M. (G)
Coaches
Nuuma L.	Campana D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
7', 1 - 0, Palutaja H. ⚽,
31', 2 - 0, Baljabkin N. (Own goal),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Kudriashov V. ↓, Filatov A. ↑,
46', Zuravljov E. ↓, Gero A. ↑,
46', Besigirskis A. ↓, Agaptsev S. ↑,
61', Kartau I. ↓, Kelement M. ↑,
61', Sillamaa R. ↓, Eerme K. ↑,
75', Velijev M. ↓, Imeh J. ↑,
78', Filatov A. 🟥,
80', Bah I. ↓, Rudenko Daniil ↑,
80', Binate A. ↓, Roomussaar K. ↑,
82', Agaptsev S. 🟨,
88', Ndakala J. ↓, Kose A. ↑,
90+1', Agaptsev S. ↓, Poliakov D. ↑,
90+3', 3 - 0, Eerme K. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Harju won 4.

Recent form of Harju has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Narva Trans is going through a series of losses (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Harju could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Harju won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 15:19. (average 1.4:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Harju won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 5:10. (average 0.8:1.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Harju JK Laagri	29	11	2	16	40:47	-7	35
10	Narva	29	5	4	20	22:65	-43	19

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Harju JK Laagri
Estonian Meistriliiga
05.07.26	Tammeka - Harju JK Laagri	2:1 ✺
20.06.26	Harju JK Laagri - Nõmme United	1:3 ✺
17.06.26	Paide LM - Harju JK Laagri	1:0 ✺
13.06.26	Harju JK Laagri - Kuressaare	2:3 ✺
30.05.26	Harju JK Laagri - Narva Trans	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 LLLLW
- Narva Trans
Estonian Meistriliiga
04.07.26	Narva Trans - Levadia Tallinn	1:3 ✺
21.06.26	Tammeka - Narva Trans	1:0 ✺
16.06.26	Kuressaare - Narva Trans	0:0 ✺
13.06.26	Narva Trans - Nõmme United	1:2 ✺
30.05.26	Harju JK Laagri - Narva Trans	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Estonian Meistriliiga
30.05.26	Harju JK Laagri - Narva Trans	3:0
07.03.26	Narva Trans - Harju JK Laagri	1:2
25.10.25	Harju JK Laagri - Narva Trans	1:0
14.09.25	Narva Trans - Harju JK Laagri	1:3
27.05.25	Narva Trans - Harju JK Laagri	4:2
29.03.25	Harju JK Laagri - Narva Trans	0:3
Estonian Cup
31.10.24	Harju JK Laagri - Narva Trans	0:3

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