Match Info

Virsliga - Round 30

Date: 11 September 2026, Friday

Location: Ogres pilsētas ģimnāzija (Ogre)

Where to Watch on TV:


Latvia	Sportacentrs TV, Virsliga Plus
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Ogre United		Liepāja

	1	X	2
				Watch
	4.20	3.90	1.61
	4.65	3.6	1.62	Watch
	4.29	4.32	1.66
	4.18	4.32	1.67	Watch
	4	4.2	1.62
	4.37	4.05	1.6
	4	3.9	1.63
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.24 ↓ (5.06)	4.04 ↓ (4.15)	1.63 ↑ (1.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ogre United
21.5%

Draw
22.6%

Liepāja
55.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

17.8%

21.8%

60.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

17.3%

21.2%

62.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ogre United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

Liepāja has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ogre United than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Liepāja than the current prediction. (+6.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Liepāja could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Ogre United - Liepāja Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Liepāja (votes: 2 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Liepāja will win (8 of 8 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Parfjonovs N. (G) 5. Sibass R. 13. Gulbis K. (C) 55. Kudelkins A. 19. Cudars K. 22. Estevez Fernandez L. 30. Doroshenko A. 8. Mickevics T. 10. Kalnins M. 9. Fokam J. 91. Grinbergs J.	24. Oss D. (G) 35. Sorokins V. 26. Isajevs V. 34. Talisca 2. Straalman B. 5. Strumia L. (C) 6. Rodolphe E. 7. Ogunniyi A. 17. Melnis B. 23. Haidara A. 18. Oloko E.
Substitutes
20. Biscuhis K. (G) 18. Evelons E. 21. Ivulans M. 71. Marchuk A. 17. Mashchenko V. 27. Molotkovs A. 11. Pacepko M. 7. Pulis I. 2. Ziemelis R.	11. Almazbekov B. 9. Crysthyan 3. Iljins K. 28. Korobenko A. 44. Leidsman K. 77. Leite A. 4. Martins M. 70. Patijcuks D. 12. Petkovic D. (G)
Coaches
Mazurs V.	Torres C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
3', Sibass R. 🟨,
15', Torres C. 🟨,
29', Isajevs V. ↓, Martins M. ↑,
38', 1 - 0, Estevez Fernandez L. ⚽, Doroshenko A. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Melnis B. ↓, Crysthyan ↑,
46', Sorokins V. 🟨,
46', Haidara A. ↓, Almazbekov B. ↑,
46', Talisca ↓, Iljins K. ↑,
50', 2 - 0, Sibass R. ⚽,
60', Cudars K. 🟨,
62', Grinbergs J. ↓, Molotkovs A. ↑,
67', Rodolphe E. 🟨,
68', Fokam J. ↓, Pulis I. ↑,
69', Rodolphe E. ↓, Patijcuks D. ↑,
76', Cudars K. ↓, Marchuk A. ↑,
76', Doroshenko A. ↓, Ziemelis R. ↑,
79', 2 - 1, Oloko E. ⚽, Patijcuks D. (A),
90+9', 2 - 2, Oloko E. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

Ogre United has been struggling in recent matches (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Liepāja is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Liepāja is seen as the favorite.

We predict that Liepāja will win today's game, with odds of 1.57.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Ogre United won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 1:9. (average 0.3:3).

Including home match between the teams, Ogre United won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	FK Liepaja	31	12	7	12	41:43	-2	43
10	Ogre United	31	4	6	21	30:76	-46	18

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ogre United
Latvian Virsliga
05.09.26	Tukums 2000 - Ogre United	2:1 ✺
30.08.26	Ogre United - RFS	0:3 ✺
22.08.26	Ogre United - Jelgava	2:3 ✺
Latvian Cup
14.08.26	BFC Daugavpils - Ogre United	3:1 ✺
Latvian Virsliga
09.08.26	Riga - Ogre United	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- FK Liepāja
Latvian Virsliga
07.09.26	RFS - Liepāja	0:0 ✺
31.08.26	Liepāja - Riga	3:2 ✺
25.08.26	Auda Riga - Liepāja	1:0 ✺
21.08.26	Liepāja - Grobiņa	3:1 ✺
09.08.26	Super Nova - Liepāja	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.4 TWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Latvian Virsliga
30.06.26	Liepāja - Ogre United	4:0
12.05.26	Liepāja - Ogre United	4:1
20.03.26	Ogre United - Liepāja	0:1

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