Match Info

Nakotnes liga - Round 13

Date: 18 July 2025, Friday

Location: Ogres pilsētas ģimnāzija (Ogre)


	Ogre United		Mārupe

	1	X	2
	1.33	4.8	6.75
	1.32	4.85	6.7
	1.3	4.85	8.1
	1.27	4.55	6.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.31 ↓ (1.63)	4.76 ↑ (4.03)	7.08 ↑ (4.07)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 9.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ogre United
68.6%

Draw
18.8%

Mārupe
12.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.4%

22.4%

22.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.2%

23.1%

21.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ogre United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ogre United's performance.

Mārupe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Mārupe might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ogre United than the current prediction. (-11.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ogre United that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mārupe than the current prediction. (+8.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Mārupe could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Ogre United - Mārupe Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
20. Biscuhis K. (G) 5. Hayashi K. 19. Jamonts K. 10. Kalnins M. 6. Karklins K. (C) 7. Kumakura K. 3. Marusiy T. 16. Mashchenko V. 9. Silagailis H. 99. Unuigbeje E. 2. Ziemelis R.	1. Zandreiters R. (G) 11. Cebotarjovs V. 26. Jansons K. 23. Kirilins A. 6. Komorovskis K. 17. Korolcuks R. 7. Korsaks K. (C) 14. Oliynyk M. 18. Roga R. 20. Speks R. 21. Strauss G.
Substitutes
13. Gulbis K. 30. Hvoinickis D. 15. Licis K. 4. Mamich D. 1. Perkons E. (G) 21. Salins D. 8. Skujins R. 22. Sprukulis K. 27. Veckagans M.	12. Bareika K. (G) 33. Calitis M. 9. Dobrajs M. 41. Garais P. 27. Norkuss D. 10. Sadovnikovs R. 15. Seliverstovs A. 44. Zags T. 22. Zarovs N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
21', 1 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
55', 2 - 0, ⚽,
58', 🟨,
74', 3 - 0, ⚽,
85', 🟨,
86', 3 - 1, ⚽,
90+1', 🟨,
90+3', 🟨,

Preview

The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 4 and 6)

Ogre United is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Mārupe has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Mārupe may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Ogre United has had a series of away games.

In this match, Ogre United is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Ogre United won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:3. (average 2.5:1.5).

Including home match between the teams, Ogre United won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ogre United
Latvian 1 Liga
05.07.25	Skanstes - Ogre United	2:1 ✺
28.06.25	Ogre United - Riga 2	1:0 ✺
15.06.25	JDFS Alberts - Ogre United	2:2 ✺
Latvian Cup
31.05.25	Valmiera - Ogre United	4:3 ✺
Latvian 1 Liga
24.05.25	Rīgas FS 2 - Ogre United	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 LWTLL
- Mārupes SC
Latvian Cup
13.07.25	Mārupe - Metta	1:4 ✺
Latvian 1 Liga
05.07.25	Mārupe - JFK Ventspils	1:2 ✺
29.06.25	Olaine - Mārupe	1:4 ✺
Latvian Cup
21.06.25	Riga United - Mārupe	0:3 ✺
Latvian 1 Liga
14.06.25	Mārupe - Leevon PPK	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 LLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Latvian 1 Liga
26.10.24	Ogre United - Mārupe	3:0
06.07.24	Mārupe - Ogre United	3:2

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