Match Info

J2 League - Round 21

Date: 28 June 2025, Saturday

Location: Resonac Dome Oita (Oita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Japan	DAZN Japan


	Oita Trinita		Omiya Ardija

	1	X	2
	3	3.25	2.3	Watch
	2.7	3	2.37
				Watch
	3.13	3.35	2.4
				Watch
	2.8	3	2.4
	2.94	3.3	2.28	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.91 ↓ (3.04)	3.18 ↑ (3.16)	2.35 ↓ (2.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Oita Trinita
31.7%

Draw
29%

Omiya Ardija
39.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.2%

30%

38.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.9%

30.7%

37.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Oita Trinita has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

Omiya Ardija has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Oita Trinita than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Omiya Ardija than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
22.2%	22.2%	55.6%

Oita Trinita - Omiya Ardija Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Oita Trinita will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Omiya will win (votes: 5 - 55.6%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Omiya: 23.1% – 88.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Omiya (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Mun Kyung-Gun (G) 31. Matheus Pereira 34. Fujiwara Y. 3. Derlan 44. Yoshida M. 5. Nakagawa H. 38. Amagasa T. 29. Utsumoto S. 21. Ayukawa S. 9. Arima K. 13. Isa K.	1. Kasahara T. (G) 20. Shimoguchi W. 4. Ichihara R. 13. Iyoha O. 22. Motegi R. 6. Ishikawa T. 7. Kojima M. 18. Tsukui T. 29. Caprini 23. Sugimoto K. 10. Toyokawa Y.
Substitutes
14. Ikeda R. 2. Kagawa Y. 19. Kozakai A. 27. Matsuo Y. 18. Nodake J. 24. Sato S. (G) 4. Satsukawa A. 16. Shige T. 15. Yashiki Y.	42. Fujii K. 44. Fukui K. 9. Gonzalez F. 14. Izumi T. 21. Kato Y. (G) 34. Murakami Y. 37. Sekiguchi K. 33. Wada T. 41. Yachida T.
Coaches
Katanosaka T.	Nagasawa T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
14', Nakagawa H. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
60', Ayukawa S. ↓, Kozakai A. ↑,
64', Toyokawa Y. ↓, Fujii K. ↑,
64', Caprini ↓, Gonzalez F. ↑,
68', Nakagawa H. ↓, Nodake J. ↑,
68', Isa K. ↓, Ikeda R. ↑,
79', Motegi R. ↓, Izumi T. ↑,
85', Ichihara R. 🟨,
85', Arima K. ↓, Yashiki Y. ↑,
85', Fujiwara Y. ↓, Kagawa Y. ↑,
87', Ishikawa T. ↓, Yachida T. ↑,
87', Tsukui T. ↓, Sekiguchi K. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 10 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ J2 League (Promotion: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Oita Trinita won 0.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Omiya may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Oita Trinita won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 9:20. (average 0.8:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Oita Trinita won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 2:9. (average 0.4:1.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Oita Trinita
Japan J2 League
21.06.25	Tokushima Vortis - Oita Trinita	2:0 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
18.06.25	Consadole Sapporo - Oita Trinita	2:3 penalties ✺
Japan J2 League
15.06.25	Oita Trinita - Blaublitz Akita	1:2 ✺
07.06.25	Imabari - Oita Trinita	1:1 ✺
31.05.25	Oita Trinita - Ventforet Kofu	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.1 LWLTW
- RB Omiya Ardija
Japan J2 League
21.06.25	Omiya Ardija - Sagan Tosu	0:0 ✺
15.06.25	V-Varen Nagasaki - Omiya Ardija	3:3 ✺
08.06.25	Omiya Ardija - Ehime	1:1 ✺
31.05.25	Omiya Ardija - Júbilo Iwata	2:2 ✺
17.05.25	Fujieda MYFC - Omiya Ardija	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 TTTTW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J2 League
05.04.25	Omiya Ardija - Oita Trinita	2:2
30.09.23	Oita Trinita - Omiya Ardija	0:1
25.03.23	Omiya Ardija - Oita Trinita	3:0
14.09.22	Omiya Ardija - Oita Trinita	2:2
04.05.22	Oita Trinita - Omiya Ardija	1:1
15.07.18	Omiya Ardija - Oita Trinita	1:0
03.05.18	Oita Trinita - Omiya Ardija	1:2

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