Match Info

Liga Nacional - Apertura - Round 11

Date: 23 October 2026, Friday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio Juan Ramon Breve Vargas (Juticalpa) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Honduras	19:00	Deportes TV


	Olancho		Estrella Roja de Danlí

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.68	3.75	3.90
	1.75	3.5	3.75
	1.78	3.7	4
	1.83	3.71	3.96	Watch
	1.74	3.35	3.6
	1.72	3.66	3.94	Watch
	1.77	3.65	3.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.75 ↑ (1.46)	3.62 ↓ (3.95)	3.85 ↓ (5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Olancho
51.5%

Draw
25%

Estrella Roja de Danlí
23.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

60.2%

22.2%

17.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.6%

17.9%

21.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Olancho has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Olancho's form might have worsened.

Estrella Roja de Danlí has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Estrella Roja de Danlí's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Olancho than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Estrella Roja de Danlí than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

Olancho - Estrella Roja de Danlí Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Olancho (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
29. Argueta G. (G) 2. Almendarez O. 12. Andino D. 27. Bengtson J. 20. Cabrera Y. A. 22. Canavesio R. 11. Joanderson 3. Lasso J. 5. Martinez D. 24. Pozantes S. 7. Rodriguez D.	1. Moreira V. (G) 11. Bermudez S. 30. Calix C. 7. Duarte E. (C) 10. Duron D. 23. Gomez E. 2. Juarez L. 4. Licona S. 18. Luna N. 15. Padilla J. 13. Rosales O.
Substitutes
17. Antunez M. 16. Banegas Y. 23. Delgado J. 39. Garcia M. 8. Gomez H. 33. Munoz N. 15. Padilla O. 26. Perea G. 30. Ramirez Arauz M. R. 42. Reyes R. 6. Velasquez A. G. 21. Zuniga Bernardez C. J.	25. Amador E. 17. Avila A. . Benitez A. 12. Garcia M. 20. Gonzalez P. 9. Lopez F. 6. Mayorquin R. 14. Munguia E. 32. Paz J. (G) 3. Rizo E. 16. Rosales B. 8. Velasquez J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
31', Martinez D. 🟨,
39', 1 - 0, Padilla J. (Own goal),
42', Duarte E. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 3)
46', Calix C. ↓, Mayorquin R. ↑,
46', Duarte E. ↓, Lopez F. ↑,
53', 1 - 1, Luna N. ⚽,
57', 2 - 1, Joanderson ⚽,
61', Cabrera Y. A. ↓, Zuniga Bernardez C. J. ↑,
69', Bengtson J. ↓, Gomez H. ↑,
70', 3 - 1, Zuniga Bernardez C. J. ⚽,
74', Bermudez S. ↓, Garcia M. ↑,
75', Pozantes S. 🟨,
79', 3 - 2, Luna N. ⚽,
80', Rosales O. ↓, Avila A. ↑,
83', Andino D. ↓, Ramirez Arauz M. R. ↑,
83', Martinez D. ↓, Delgado J. ↑,
83', Joanderson ↓, Munoz N. ↑,
84', Duron D. ↓, Benitez R. ↑,
89', 3 - 3, Lopez F. ⚽,

Preview

A tightly contested fixture between two evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 5th in the Promotion - Liga Nacional (Apertura - Playoffs - Quarter - finals) and 7th).

In recent outings, Olancho has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Estrella Roja has struggled for form in recent encounters (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Estrella Roja may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

In this matchup, Olancho is considered the favorite to take the win.

In the last 1 head-to-head meeting, Olancho has recorded 1 win, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 1:0.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Olancho	11	2	7	2	11:11	0	13
7	Estrella Roja	11	3	4	4	18:21	-3	13

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Olancho FC
Honduras Liga Nacional
15.10.26	CD Marathón - Olancho	2:1 ✺
11.10.26	Olancho - Atlético Independiente	1:1 ✺
19.09.26	Génesis PN - Olancho	0:0 ✺
12.09.26	Olancho - Real España	1:1 ✺
04.09.26	Choloma - Olancho	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 LTTTT
- Estrella Roja de Danlí
Honduras Liga Nacional
18.10.26	Génesis PN - Estrella Roja de Danlí	1:2 ✺
11.10.26	Estrella Roja de Danlí - Real España	0:1 ✺
18.09.26	Choloma - Estrella Roja de Danlí	2:0 ✺
11.09.26	Estrella Roja de Danlí - Platense	2:2 ✺
05.09.26	CD Marathón - Estrella Roja de Danlí	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 WLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Honduras Liga Nacional
02.08.26	Estrella Roja de Danlí - Olancho	0:1

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