Match Info

ENGLAND: NATIONAL LEAGUE - ROUND 8

Date: 9 September 2023, Saturday

Location: Boundary Park (Oldham)


	Oldham Athletic		Dorking Wanderers

	1	X	2
	1.36	4.75	6.5
	1.5	4.25	4.75
	1.38	5.15	7.61
	1.5	4	4.8
	1.36	5.05	7.1
	1.38	4.8	6.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.41 ↓ (1.8)	4.67 ↑ (3.6)	6.19 ↑ (3.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Oldham Athletic
65.3%

Draw
19.8%

Dorking Wanderers
14.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.5%

25.3%

24.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.8%

22.9%

26.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Oldham Athletic has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+14.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Oldham Athletic's performance.

Dorking Wanderers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Dorking Wanderers might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Oldham Athletic than the current prediction. (-19.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Oldham Athletic that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Dorking Wanderers than the current prediction. (+11.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Dorking Wanderers could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.7%	0%	14.3%

Oldham Athletic - Dorking Wanderers Predictions

Users Predictions: Oldham Athletic will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.78% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Hudson M. (G) 22. Dickenson B. 19. Gardner D. 15. Green D. 5. Hobson S. 4. Hogan L. (C) 3. Kitching M. 30. Norwood J. 14. Sheron N. 21. Sutton W. 11. Ward D.	1. Male H. (G) 30. Bowerman S. 5. Craig T. 37. Francomb G. 22. Fuller B. (C) 20. Gallagher D. 6. McManus N. 11. McShane J. 9. Prior J. 4. Pybus D. 17. Taylor J.
Substitutes
9. Fondop-Talum M. 10. Nuttall J. 16. Raglan C. 25. Reid A. 7. Willoughby K.	23. Jebb J. 12. Kennedy C. 24. Ottaway H. 19. Seager R. 3. Taylor B.

Preview

Oldham is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Dorking is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

In this match Oldham is a favorite.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Oldham won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 8-3.

Including matches at home between the teams Oldham won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Oldham Athletic
English National League
02.09.23	Gateshead - Oldham Athletic	2:2 ✺
28.08.23	Oldham Athletic - Solihull Moors	0:2 ✺
26.08.23	Boreham Wood - Oldham Athletic	0:0 ✺
19.08.23	Chesterfield - Oldham Athletic	1:1 ✺
15.08.23	Oldham Athletic - Halifax Town	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 TLTTL
- Dorking Wanderers
English National League
02.09.23	Dorking Wanderers - Eastleigh	0:0 ✺
28.08.23	Woking - Dorking Wanderers	2:0 ✺
26.08.23	Dorking Wanderers - York City	2:2 ✺
19.08.23	Solihull Moors - Dorking Wanderers	3:0 ✺
15.08.23	Dorking Wanderers - Southend United	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 TLTLW

Latest Head to Head

English National League
07.01.23	Dorking Wanderers - Oldham Athletic	1:5
13.08.22	Oldham Athletic - Dorking Wanderers	3:2

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