Match Info

National League - Play Offs - Final

Date: 1 June 2025, Sunday

Location: Wembley Stadium (London)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Oldham Athletic		Southend United

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.4	3.1	Watch
	2.6	3.3	2.55
	2.26	3.3	3.05
	2.67	3.3	2.72
	2.25	3.32	3.13	Watch
	2.62	3.1	2.6
	2.29	3.32	3.1	Watch
	2.26	3.3	3.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.39 ↓ (2.49)	3.29 ↑ (3.23)	2.91 ↑ (2.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Oldham Athletic
39.2%

Draw
28.5%

Southend United
32.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.7%

29.1%

33.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.7%

30.7%

31.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Oldham Athletic has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

Southend United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Oldham Athletic than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Southend United than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
91.7%	0%	8.3%

Oldham Athletic - Southend United Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Oldham will win (votes: 11 - 91.7%). Southend will win (votes: 1 - 8.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Oldham: 76.1% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Oldham Athletic will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Hudson M. (G) 24. Evans C. 9. Fondop-Talum M. 14. Garner J. 3. Kitching M. 6. Monthe M. 2. Ogle R. 4. Pett T. 29. Pritchard J. 16. Raglan C. (C) 28. Yoganathan V.	1. Hayes N. (G) 22. Appiah-Forson K. 7. Bridge J. 20. Goodliffe B. 21. Hopper T. 8. Husin N. 24. Kendall C. 17. Miley C. 3. Ralph N. (C) 2. Scott-Morriss G. 16. Taylor H.
Substitutes
10. Conlon T. 31. Donaghy T. (G) 26. Harratt K. 5. Hobson S. 30. Norwood J. 15. Rossiter J. 17. Uchegbulam J.	9. Bonne M. 19. Chambers-Parillon L. 28. Coker O. 15. Gubbins J. 25. Harness N. (G) 11. Walker J. 4. Wind G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
5', 0 - 1, Monthe M. (Own goal),
8', Miley C. 🟨,
45+2', Pritchard J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
48', 1 - 1, Garner J. (Pen),
64', Kendall C. ↓, Bonne M. ↑,
64', Bridge J. ↓, Chambers-Parillon L. ↑,
67', Pritchard J. ↓, Uchegbulam J. ↑,
75', Garner J. ↓, Norwood J. ↑,
77', Miley C. ↓, Coker O. ↑,
79', Evans C. 🟨,
84', Yoganathan V. ↓, Conlon T. ↑,
90', Hopper T. 🟨,
90+2', Monthe M. 🟨,
90+3', Hopper T. ↓, Walker J. ↑,
Extra Time (2 - 1)
91', 1 - 2, Chambers-Parillon L. ⚽,
98', Kitching M. ↓, Hobson S. ↑,
100', Hobson S. 🟨,
101', Evans C. ↓, Harratt K. ↑,
110', 2 - 2, Norwood J. ⚽,
112', 3 - 2, Harratt K. ⚽,
114', Appiah-Forson K. ↓, Gubbins J. ↑,
114', Uchegbulam J. ↓, Rossiter J. ↑,

Preview

Playing at Wembley Stadium.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Oldham won 1.

Oldham is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Southend is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Recently, Southend has had a series of away games.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Oldham won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 9:24. (average 0.6:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Oldham won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 6:12. (average 0.9:1.7).

Last Results with these Odds

Oldham Athletic - the odds 2.49 are the expected chance of winning is 37.71%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Oldham Athletic
English National League
20.05.25	York City - Oldham Athletic	0:3 ✺
14.05.25	Oldham Athletic - Halifax Town	4:0 ✺
05.05.25	Oldham Athletic - Ebbsfleet United	2:0 ✺
26.04.25	Forest Green Rovers - Oldham Athletic	1:0 ✺
21.04.25	York City - Oldham Athletic	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.2 WWWLT
- Southend United
English National League
21.05.25	Forest Green Rovers - Southend United	2:3 penalties ✺
15.05.25	Rochdale - Southend United	3:4 ET ✺
05.05.25	Gateshead - Southend United	0:0 ✺
26.04.25	Southend United - Wealdstone	3:0 ✺
21.04.25	Ebbsfleet United - Southend United	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.4 WWTWW

Latest Head to Head

English National League
29.03.25	Southend United - Oldham Athletic	1:0
07.09.24	Oldham Athletic - Southend United	1:1
02.03.24	Oldham Athletic - Southend United	1:1
05.08.23	Southend United - Oldham Athletic	4:0
18.04.23	Oldham Athletic - Southend United	2:0
20.08.22	Southend United - Oldham Athletic	1:0
English League Two
06.03.21	Oldham Athletic - Southend United	0:0

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