Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 19

Date: 24 January 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Stade Vélodrome (Marseille) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Bastien B. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	CANAL+ Sport 2, DStv Now, StarTimes App, SuperSport GOtv Football, SuperSport MaXimo 2, SuperSport Variety 4, TV5 Monde Africa, TV5 Monde Maghreb-Orient
Albania	21:05	SuperSport 3
Argentina	17:05	Disney+, ESPN 3
Armenia	00:05	Fast Sports 1, Fast Sports
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 6, TOD, TV5 Monde Asia, TV5 Monde Pacifique
Austria	21:05	DAZN
Bosnia And Herzegovina	21:05	Arena Sport 3
Brazil	17:05	Caze TV, Claro TV+, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	22:05	Diema Sport, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	15:05	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Chile	17:05	Disney+, ESPN 3
China	04:05	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	15:05	Disney+, ESPN 3
Croatia	21:05	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	22:05	Cablenet Sports 2, Cablenet Sports 2
Czech Republic	21:05	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Denmark	21:05	Viaplay
Europe	—	Go3 Sport 2 Baltic, TV5 Monde Europe
Finland	22:05	Viaplay 2 Urheilu, Viaplay, V Sport Premium
France	21:05	DAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
Germany	21:05	DAZN Deutsch
Hong Kong	04:05	beIN Sports 3
Israel	22:05	5 LIVE Israel
Italy	21:05	Ligue 1+, NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 252, Sky Sport Uno
Japan	05:05	DAZN Japan
Kazakhstan	02:05	Setanta Sports
Kenya	23:05	Gotv
Kosovo	21:05	Arena Premium 3, ART Sport 4
Malta	21:05	TVM Sport+
Mexico	14:05	FOX One, Fox Sports
Netherlands	21:05	Viaplay
Nigeria	21:05	Supersport Maximo 2
North Central America	—	Disney+ Caribbean, ESPN 5 Norte
Norway	21:05	Viaplay
Peru	15:05	Disney+
Philippines	04:05	Cignal Play
Poland	21:05	Eleven Sports 2
Portugal	20:05	Sport TV3
Russia	23:05	Okko Sport
Serbia	21:05	Arena Premium 3
Slovakia	21:05	Voyo
Slovenia	21:05	Arena Sport 4
South Africa	22:05	SuperSport Variety 4
South America	—	TV5 Monde Amerique Latine
South Korea	05:05	Coupang Play
Sweden	21:05	Viaplay, V Sport Premium
Switzerland	21:05	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	23:05	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 4
Ukraine	22:05	MEGOGO Futbol 3, MEGOGO Sport, MEGOGO Ukraine
United Kingdom	20:05	Amazon Prime Video, Ligue 1+
Uruguay	17:05	Disney+
Usa	15:05	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz, Fubo Sports Network, TV5 Monde
Venezuela	16:05	Disney+, Inter
International	20:05	Onefootball


	Olympique Marseille		Lens

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.8	3.25	Watch
	2.12	3.7	3.25	Watch
	2.13	3.8	3.47
	2.07	3.77	3.34	Watch
	2.05	3.5	3.2
	2.04	3.9	3.51	Watch
	2.05	3.75	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.07 ↑ (1.93)	3.75 ↓ (3.82)	3.35 ↓ (3.61)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Olympique Marseille
46%

Draw
25.5%

Lens
28.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

49%

24.8%

26.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.4%

25.5%

24.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Olympique Marseille has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

Lens has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Olympique Marseille than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lens than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
58.7%	17.4%	23.9%

Olympique Marseille - Lens Predictions

Users Predictions: 45 users predict this event. Marseille will win (votes: 26 - 57.8%). Lens will win (votes: 11 - 24.4%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 17.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Marseille: 43.4% – 72.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Marseille (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Tie (votes: 3 - 37.5%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 6 - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 6 - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

AH -0.5 - Lens (3.46) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Lens (1.73) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Marseille (votes: 5 - 45.5%). Lens (votes: 3 - 27.3%). Tie (votes: 3 - 27.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rulli G. (G) 5. Balerdi L. (C) 21. Aguerd N. 32. Medina F. 22. Weah T. 23. Hojbjerg P. 27. Timber Q. 14. Paixao I. 11. Nwaneri E. 20. Traore H. J. 9. Gouiri A.	40. Risser R. (G) 2. Aguilar R. 25. Ganiou I. 20. Sarr M. 23. Abdulhamid S. 8. Sangare M. 28. Thomasson A. (C) 14. Udol M. 10. Thauvin F. 22. Said W. 11. Edouard O.
Substitutes
97. Aubameyang P. 50. Bakola D. 12. De Lange J. (G) 4. Egan-Riley C. 10. Greenwood M. 62. Murillo M. 17. O'Riley M. 28. Pavard B. 18. Vermeeren A.	32. Antonio K. 26. Bermont A. 5. Bulatovic A. 13. Celik N. 38. Fofana R. 1. Gorgelin M. (G) 19. Sima A. 7. Sotoca F. 18. Sylla F.
Coaches
De Zerbi R.	Sage P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
3', 1 - 0, Gouiri A. ⚽, Paixao I. (A),
13', 2 - 0, Nwaneri E. ⚽, Hojbjerg P. (A),
37', Said W. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
58', Nwaneri E. ↓, Greenwood M. ↑,
59', Edouard O. ↓, Sima A. ↑,
61', Sangare M. 🟨,
70', Thauvin F. 🟨,
71', Said W. ↓, Fofana R. ↑,
72', Thomasson A. ↓, Bulatovic A. ↑,
74', Aguerd N. ↓, Pavard B. ↑,
74', Traore H. J. ↓, Bakola D. ↑,
74', Timber Q. ↓, O'Riley M. ↑,
75', 3 - 0, Gouiri A. ⚽, Weah T. (A),
78', Aguilar R. ↓, Bermont A. ↑,
78', Thauvin F. ↓, Sotoca F. ↑,
80', Gouiri A. ↓, Aubameyang P. ↑,
85', 3 - 1, Fofana R. ⚽, Sangare M. (A),

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Marseille won 2.

Recent performances by Marseille have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Lens is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Lens may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Marseille could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Marseille: Emerson (Thigh Injury) Gomes A. (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Lens: Baidoo S. (Muscle Injury) Gradit J. (Thigh Injury) Gurtner R. (Muscle Injury) Haidara A. (Lacking Match Fitness) Jhoanner Chavez (Thigh Injury)

There are questionable in Marseille: Aguerd N. (Rest)

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Marseille won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 7 matches, and goals 20:16. (average 1.4:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Marseille won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 6:8. (average 1:1.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Lens	8	4	1	3	16:12	4	13
8	Marseille	8	4	0	4	18:13	5	12

Outrights of French Ligue 1 for now

Lens: 2.2% Marseille: 0.82%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Olympique Marseille
UEFA Champions League
21.01.26	Olympique Marseille - Liverpool	0:3 ✺
French Ligue 1
17.01.26	Angers - Olympique Marseille	2:5 ✺
Coupe De France
13.01.26	Bayeux - Olympique Marseille	0:9 ✺
French Super Cup
08.01.26	Paris Saint-Germain - Olympique Marseille	3:2 penalties ✺
French Ligue 1
04.01.26	Olympique Marseille - Nantes	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 LWWLL
- RC Lens
French Ligue 1
17.01.26	Lens - Auxerre	1:0 ✺
Coupe De France
11.01.26	Sochaux - Lens	0:3 ✺
French Ligue 1
02.01.26	Toulouse - Lens	0:3 ✺
Coupe De France
19.12.25	Lens - Feignies Aulnoye	3:1 ✺
French Ligue 1
14.12.25	Lens - Nice	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
25.10.25	Lens - Olympique Marseille	2:1
08.03.25	Olympique Marseille - Lens	0:1
23.11.24	Lens - Olympique Marseille	1:3
28.04.24	Olympique Marseille - Lens	2:1
12.11.23	Lens - Olympique Marseille	1:0
06.05.23	Lens - Olympique Marseille	2:1
22.10.22	Olympique Marseille - Lens	0:1

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