Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 19

Date: 24 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Stade Vélodrome (Marseille)

Referee: Bastien B. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 2, DStv Now, StarTimes App, SuperSport GOtv Football, SuperSport MaXimo 2, SuperSport Variety 4, TV5 Monde Africa, TV5 Monde Maghreb-Orient
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Croatia	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
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Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Denmark	Viaplay
Europe	Go3 Sport 2 Baltic, TV5 Monde Europe
Finland	Viaplay 2 Urheilu, Viaplay, V Sport Premium
France	DAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 3
Israel	5 LIVE Israel
Italy	Ligue 1+, NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 252, Sky Sport Uno
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Malta	TVM Sport+
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Philippines	Cignal Play
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Portugal	Sport TV3
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 3
Slovakia	Voyo
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Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 4
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Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz, Fubo Sports Network, TV5 Monde
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter
World	Onefootball


	Olympique Marseille		Lens

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.8	3.25	Watch
	2.12	3.7	3.25	Watch
	2.13	3.8	3.47
	2.07	3.77	3.34	Watch
	2.05	3.5	3.2
	2.04	3.9	3.51	Watch
	2.05	3.75	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.07 ↑ (1.93)	3.75 ↓ (3.82)	3.35 ↓ (3.61)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Olympique Marseille
46%

Draw
25.5%

Lens
28.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49%

24.8%

26.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.3%

27%

24.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Olympique Marseille has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

Lens has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Olympique Marseille than the current prediction. (+7.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Olympique Marseille, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lens than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
58.7%	17.4%	23.9%

Olympique Marseille - Lens Predictions

Users Predictions: 45 users predict this event. Marseille will win (votes: 26 - 57.8%). Lens will win (votes: 11 - 24.4%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 17.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Marseille: 43.4% – 72.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Marseille (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Tie (votes: 3 - 37.5%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 6 - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 6 - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

AH -0.5 - Lens (3.46) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Lens (1.73) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Marseille (votes: 5 - 45.5%). Lens (votes: 3 - 27.3%). Tie (votes: 3 - 27.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rulli G. (G) 5. Balerdi L. (C) 21. Aguerd N. 32. Medina F. 22. Weah T. 23. Hojbjerg P. 27. Timber Q. 14. Paixao I. 11. Nwaneri E. 20. Traore H. J. 9. Gouiri A.	40. Risser R. (G) 2. Aguilar R. 25. Ganiou I. 20. Sarr M. 23. Abdulhamid S. 8. Sangare M. 28. Thomasson A. (C) 14. Udol M. 10. Thauvin F. 22. Said W. 11. Edouard O.
Substitutes
97. Aubameyang P. 50. Bakola D. 12. De Lange J. (G) 4. Egan-Riley C. 10. Greenwood M. 62. Murillo M. 17. O'Riley M. 28. Pavard B. 18. Vermeeren A.	32. Antonio K. 26. Bermont A. 5. Bulatovic A. 13. Celik N. 38. Fofana R. 1. Gorgelin M. (G) 19. Sima A. 7. Sotoca F. 18. Sylla F.
Coaches
De Zerbi R.	Sage P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
3', 1 - 0, Gouiri A. ⚽, Paixao I. (A),
13', 2 - 0, Nwaneri E. ⚽, Hojbjerg P. (A),
37', Said W. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
58', Nwaneri E. ↓, Greenwood M. ↑,
59', Edouard O. ↓, Sima A. ↑,
61', Sangare M. 🟨,
70', Thauvin F. 🟨,
71', Said W. ↓, Fofana R. ↑,
72', Thomasson A. ↓, Bulatovic A. ↑,
74', Aguerd N. ↓, Pavard B. ↑,
74', Traore H. J. ↓, Bakola D. ↑,
74', Timber Q. ↓, O'Riley M. ↑,
75', 3 - 0, Gouiri A. ⚽, Weah T. (A),
78', Aguilar R. ↓, Bermont A. ↑,
78', Thauvin F. ↓, Sotoca F. ↑,
80', Gouiri A. ↓, Aubameyang P. ↑,
85', 3 - 1, Fofana R. ⚽, Sangare M. (A),

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Marseille won 2.

Recent performances by Marseille have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Lens is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Lens may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Marseille could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Marseille: Emerson (Thigh Injury) Gomes A. (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Lens: Baidoo S. (Muscle Injury) Gradit J. (Thigh Injury) Gurtner R. (Muscle Injury) Haidara A. (Lacking Match Fitness) Jhoanner Chavez (Thigh Injury)

There are questionable in Marseille: Aguerd N. (Rest)

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Marseille won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 7 matches, and goals 20:16. (average 1.4:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Marseille won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 6:8. (average 1:1.3).

Outrights of French Ligue 1 for now

Lens: 1.95% Marseille: 1.19%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
15	Lens	5	1	1	3	9:9	0	4
17	Marseille	5	1	0	4	7:8	-1	3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Olympique Marseille
UEFA Champions League
21.01.26	Olympique Marseille - Liverpool	0:3 ✺
French Ligue 1
17.01.26	Angers - Olympique Marseille	2:5 ✺
Coupe De France
13.01.26	Bayeux - Olympique Marseille	0:9 ✺
French Super Cup
08.01.26	Paris Saint-Germain - Olympique Marseille	3:2 penalties ✺
French Ligue 1
04.01.26	Olympique Marseille - Nantes	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 LWWLL
- RC Lens
French Ligue 1
17.01.26	Lens - Auxerre	1:0 ✺
Coupe De France
11.01.26	Sochaux - Lens	0:3 ✺
French Ligue 1
02.01.26	Toulouse - Lens	0:3 ✺
Coupe De France
19.12.25	Lens - Feignies Aulnoye	3:1 ✺
French Ligue 1
14.12.25	Lens - Nice	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
25.10.25	Lens - Olympique Marseille	2:1
08.03.25	Olympique Marseille - Lens	0:1
23.11.24	Lens - Olympique Marseille	1:3
28.04.24	Olympique Marseille - Lens	2:1
12.11.23	Lens - Olympique Marseille	1:0
06.05.23	Lens - Olympique Marseille	2:1
22.10.22	Olympique Marseille - Lens	0:1

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