Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 21

Date: 8 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Parc des Princes (Paris)

Referee: Delajod W. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


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World	Onefootball


	Paris Saint-Germain		Olympique Marseille

	1	X	2
	1.44	5	6	Watch
	1.44	4.95	6.4	Watch
	1.45	5.25	6.5
	1.47	5.27	6.28	Watch
	1.44	4.6	5.75
	1.46	5.14	6.49	Watch
	1.46	5	6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.45 ↑ (1.41)	5.03 ↑ (4.99)	6.2 ↓ (6.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Paris Saint-Germain
65.7%

Draw
19%

Olympique Marseille
15.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

66.6%

18.8%

14.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

70%

19.8%

13.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Paris Saint-Germain has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

Olympique Marseille has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paris Saint-Germain than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Olympique Marseille than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
67.6%	17.6%	14.7%

Paris Saint Germain - Olympique Marseille Predictions

Users Predictions: 33 users predict this event. PSG will win (votes: 22 - 66.7%). Marseille will win (votes: 5 - 15.2%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 18.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for PSG: 50.6% – 82.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. PSG (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1 - PSG (1.69) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH -0.5 - Marseille (5.23) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Marseille (2.72) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. PSG (votes: 4 - 57.1%). Marseille (votes: 3 - 42.9%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
39. Safonov M. (G) 33. Zaire-Emery W. 5. Marquinhos (C) 51. Pacho W. 25. Mendes N. 17. Vitinha 24. Mayulu S. 87. Neves J. 14. Doue D. 10. Dembele O. 29. Barcola B.	12. De Lange J. (G) 28. Pavard B. 5. Balerdi L. (C) 32. Medina F. 22. Weah T. 27. Timber Q. 23. Hojbjerg P. 33. Emerson 11. Nwaneri E. 10. Greenwood M. 9. Gouiri A.
Substitutes
4. Beraldo L. 30. Chevalier L. (G) 27. Fernandez D. 21. Hernandez L. 7. Kvaratskhelia K. 19. Lee Kang-In 49. Mbaye I. 9. Ramos G. 6. Zabarnyi I.	8. Abdelli H. 17. Aubameyang P. 4. Egan-Riley C. 19. Kondogbia G. 26. Nadir B. 14. Paixao I. 1. Rulli G. (G) 20. Traore H. J. 18. Vermeeren A.
Coaches
Luis Enrique	De Zerbi R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
9', Vitinha 🟨,
12', 1 - 0, Dembele O. ⚽, Mendes N. (A),
37', 2 - 0, Dembele O. ⚽, Mayulu S. (A),
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Nwaneri E. ↓, Paixao I. ↑,
59', Zaire-Emery W. 🟨,
62', Pavard B. ↓, Abdelli H. ↑,
62', Doue D. ↓, Kvaratskhelia K. ↑,
64', 3 - 0, Medina F. (Own goal),
66', 4 - 0, Kvaratskhelia K. ⚽, Dembele O. (A),
68', Barcola B. ↓, Lee Kang-In ↑,
74', 5 - 0, Lee Kang-In ⚽, Mayulu S. (A),
75', Zaire-Emery W. ↓, Hernandez L. ↑,
75', Mayulu S. ↓, Fernandez D. ↑,
75', Dembele O. ↓, Ramos G. ↑,
80', Greenwood M. ↓, Nadir B. ↑,
82', Emerson 🟨,
90+1', Balerdi L. 🟨,

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, PSG won 4.

PSG is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Marseille's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Marseille may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, PSG is the obvious favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, PSG won 15 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 43:12. (average 2.2:0.6).

Including home matches between the teams, PSG won 10 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 28:7. (average 2.5:0.6).

Outrights of French Ligue 1 for now

PSG: 70.71% Marseille: 1.57%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	PSG	5	2	2	1	8:7	1	8
17	Marseille	5	1	0	4	7:8	-1	3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Paris Saint-Germain
French Ligue 1
01.02.26	Strasbourg - Paris Saint-Germain	1:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
28.01.26	Paris Saint-Germain - Newcastle United	1:1 ✺
French Ligue 1
23.01.26	Auxerre - Paris Saint-Germain	0:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
20.01.26	Sporting Lisbon - Paris Saint-Germain	2:1 ✺
French Ligue 1
16.01.26	Paris Saint-Germain - Lille	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 WTWLW
- Olympique Marseille
Coupe De France
03.02.26	Olympique Marseille - Rennes	3:0 ✺
French Ligue 1
31.01.26	Paris FC - Olympique Marseille	2:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
28.01.26	Club Brugge - Olympique Marseille	3:0 ✺
French Ligue 1
24.01.26	Olympique Marseille - Lens	3:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
21.01.26	Olympique Marseille - Liverpool	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 WTLWL

Latest Head to Head

French Super Cup
08.01.26	Paris Saint-Germain - Olympique Marseille	3:2 penalties
French Ligue 1
22.09.25	Olympique Marseille - Paris Saint-Germain	1:0
16.03.25	Paris Saint-Germain - Olympique Marseille	3:1
27.10.24	Olympique Marseille - Paris Saint-Germain	0:3
31.03.24	Olympique Marseille - Paris Saint-Germain	0:2
24.09.23	Paris Saint-Germain - Olympique Marseille	4:0
26.02.23	Olympique Marseille - Paris Saint-Germain	0:3

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