Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 17

Date: 2 January 2026, Friday

Location: Stadium de Toulouse (Toulouse)

Referee: Vernice M. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, SuperSport GOtv Football, SuperSport MaXimo 2
Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3, TOD
Austria	DAZN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 1, Arena Sport 1
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Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Chile	Disney+
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Croatia	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
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Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay 2 Urheilu, Viaplay, V Sport Premium
France	DAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 2, Now Player
Israel	5 PLUS Israel
Italy	Ligue 1+, NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport MIX
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kenya	Gotv
Mexico	FOX One, Fox Sports
Netherlands	Viaplay
Nigeria	Supersport Maximo 2
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
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Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Eleven Sports 4
Portugal	Sport TV4
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Sport 3
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Slovenia	Arena Sport 3
South-africa	SuperSport Variety 4
South-korea	Coupang Play
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Premium
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 4
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 2, MEGOGO Ukraine
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Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	K+, ON Plus, TV 360
World	Onefootball


	Toulouse		Lens

	1	X	2
	2.55	3.2	2.88	Watch
	2.8	3.3	2.5
	2.55	3.2	2.85
	2.78	3.4	2.52
	2.54	3.32	2.84	Watch
	2.5	3	2.8
	2.79	3.27	2.73	Watch
	2.57	3.14	2.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.64 ↓ (2.76)	3.23 ↓ (3.41)	2.75 ↑ (2.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Toulouse
36.1%

Draw
29.4%

Lens
34.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.2%

27.7%

38.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.7%

28.9%

36.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Toulouse has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

Lens has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toulouse than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lens than the current prediction. (+2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
15.4%	26.2%	58.5%

Toulouse - Lens Predictions

Users Predictions: 65 users predict this event. Toulouse will win (votes: 10 - 15.4%). Lens will win (votes: 38 - 58.5%). It will Tie (votes: 17 - 26.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lens: 46.5% – 70.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 16 Selected Experts predict this event. Toulouse (votes: 4 - 25%). Lens (votes: 9 - 56.3%). Tie (votes: 3 - 18.8%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Lens (2.04) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Toulouse (1.40) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 21 Selected Experts predict this event. Toulouse (votes: 5 - 23.8%). Lens (votes: 13 - 61.9%). Tie (votes: 3 - 14.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Restes G. (G) 3. McKenzie M. 4. Cresswell C. 2. Nicolaisen R. (C) 15. Donnum A. 45. Vossah A. 23. Casseres C. 19. Sidibe D. 22. Messali R. 10. Gboho Y. 20. Emersonn	40. Risser R. (G) 25. Ganiou I. 6. Baidoo S. 20. Sarr M. 23. Abdulhamid S. 28. Thomasson A. (C) 5. Bulatovic A. 14. Udol M. 10. Thauvin F. 22. Said W. 11. Edouard O.
Substitutes
44. Bakhouche Piernas G. 31. Edjouma N. 16. Haug K. (G) 11. Hidalgo S. 12. Kamanzi W. 35. Koumbassa S. 77. Sauer M. 8. Schmidt N. 7. Vignolo J.	32. Antonio K. 26. Bermont A. 4. Celik N. 38. Fofana R. 29. Guilavogui M. 1. Gurtner R. (G) 19. Sima A. 7. Sotoca F. 18. Sylla F.
Coaches
Martinez C.	Sage P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
23', Emersonn 🟥,
30', Nicolaisen R. ↓, Koumbassa S. ↑,
38', Edouard O. ↓, Fofana R. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 3)
50', Thauvin F. 🟨,
57', 0 - 1, Said W. ⚽,
57', Cresswell C. 🟨,
63', Messali R. ↓, Hidalgo S. ↑,
63', Vossah A. ↓, Sauer M. ↑,
74', Thauvin F. ↓, Guilavogui M. ↑,
77', Donnum A. ↓, Vignolo J. ↑,
77', Koumbassa S. ↓, Kamanzi W. ↑,
85', 0 - 2, Thomasson A. ⚽,
86', Martinez C. 🟨,
87', Sauer M. 🟨,
88', Bulatovic A. 🟨,
90', Bulatovic A. ↓, Sotoca F. ↑,
90', Abdulhamid S. ↓, Bermont A. ↑,
90+2', Risser R. 🟨,
90+5', 0 - 3, Ganiou I. ⚽, Thomasson A. (A),

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 8 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toulouse won 1.

Toulouse is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Lens is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 5 wins).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Toulouse: Azizi I. (Knee Injury) Francis A. (Broken Leg) Magri F. (International duty)

There will not play in Lens: Aguilar R. (Muscle Injury) Gradit J. (Thigh Injury) Haidara A. (International duty) Jhoanner Chavez (Thigh Injury) Sangare M. (International duty)

There are questionable in Toulouse: Kamanzi W. (Injury)

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Toulouse won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 6 matches, and goals 3:12. (average 0.4:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Toulouse won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 1:6. (average 0.3:1.5).

Outrights of French Ligue 1 for now

Lens: 1.31% Toulouse: 0.44%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Lens	6	2	1	3	11:10	1	7
15	Toulouse	6	1	3	2	9:11	-2	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Toulouse FC
Coupe De France
20.12.25	Lyon La Duchère - Toulouse	1:2 ✺
French Ligue 1
13.12.25	Paris FC - Toulouse	0:3 ✺
06.12.25	Toulouse - Strasbourg	1:0 ✺
29.11.25	Olympique Marseille - Toulouse	2:2 ✺
23.11.25	Toulouse - Angers	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.3 WWWTL
- RC Lens
Coupe De France
19.12.25	Lens - Feignies Aulnoye	3:1 ✺
French Ligue 1
14.12.25	Lens - Nice	2:0 ✺
06.12.25	Nantes - Lens	1:2 ✺
30.11.25	Angers - Lens	1:2 ✺
22.11.25	Lens - Strasbourg	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
10.05.25	Toulouse - Lens	1:1
05.01.25	Lens - Toulouse	0:1
28.01.24	Toulouse - Lens	0:2
24.09.23	Lens - Toulouse	2:1
02.05.23	Toulouse - Lens	0:1
28.10.22	Lens - Toulouse	3:0
14.03.15	Lens - Toulouse	1:0

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