Match Info

J2/J3 League - Round 17

Date: 17 May 2026, Sunday

Location: NACK5 Stadium Omiya (Saitama)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	AbemaTV, DAZN Japan


	Omiya Ardija		Nagano Parceiro

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.37	4.75	6.1	Watch
	1.36	4.98	7.12
	1.38	4.86	7.08	Watch
	1.3	4.75	6.5
	1.33	4.85	7.05	Watch
	1.41	4.4	6.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.36 ↓ (1.41)	4.77 ↑ (4.4)	6.74 ↑ (6.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 7.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Omiya Ardija
67.3%

Draw
19.2%

Nagano Parceiro
13.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.2%

20.9%

13.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67.7%

20.1%

13.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Omiya Ardija has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

Nagano Parceiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Omiya Ardija than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nagano Parceiro than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

Omiya Ardija - Nagano Parceiro Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
24. Glover T. (G) 37. Sekiguchi K. 19. Ozaki Y. 88. Nishio R. 3. Kato H. 8. Kaua Diniz 15. Nakayama K. 11. Caprini 45. Yamamoto O. 14. Izumi T. 20. Hidaka H.	1. Tajiri K. (G) 24. Watanabe Z. 2. Sakai S. 13. Tsukegi Y. 25. Tanaka K. 30. Nojima K. 46. Koga S. 6. Hasegawa H. 8. Kondo T. 18. Yoshizawa S. 11. Shin K.
Substitutes
6. Ishikawa T. 1. Kasahara T. (G) 44. Kidera S. 43. Kobayashi Y. 7. Kojima M. 27. Matsui T. 22. Motegi R. 34. Murakami Y. 23. Sugimoto K.	28. Fujikawa K. 4. Gyotoku E. 15. Higuchi K. 19. Ito K. 17. Kutsuna K. 21. Nakano K. (G) 26. Nakata S. 10. Yamanaka R. 22. Yoshida K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
18', Ozaki Y. 🟨,
38', Kondo T. 🟨,
44', Kaua Diniz 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Kaua Diniz ↓, Kojima M. ↑,
47', Hasegawa H. 🟨,
56', Shin K. ↓, Fujikawa K. ↑,
61', 1 - 0, Yamamoto O. ⚽, Nishio R. (A),
61', Nojima K. ↓, Kutsuna K. ↑,
71', 1 - 1, Fujikawa K. ⚽,
74', Caprini ↓, Kobayashi Y. ↑,
74', Hidaka H. ↓, Sugimoto K. ↑,
79', Sekiguchi K. ↓, Motegi R. ↑,
80', Yoshizawa S. ↓, Ito K. ↑,
80', Kondo T. ↓, Higuchi K. ↑,
81', Koga S. ↓, Yoshida K. ↑,
85', 1 - 2, Higuchi K. ⚽, Fujikawa K. (A),
87', Kato H. ↓, Kidera S. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ J2/J3 League (Placement matches: ) and 10 in the zone Promotion ~ J2/J3 League (Placement matches: )).

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Nagano may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Omiya is the undeniable favorite.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Omiya won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:2. (average 1.8:0.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Omiya won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:1. (average 2.5:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- RB Omiya Ardija
Japan J2 J3 League
09.05.26	Consadole Sapporo - Omiya Ardija	4:3 ✺
06.05.26	Omiya Ardija - Iwaki	3:2 ✺
03.05.26	Fukushima United - Omiya Ardija	1:2 ✺
29.04.26	Omiya Ardija - Ventforet Kofu	1:2 ✺
25.04.26	Fujieda MYFC - Omiya Ardija	1:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 LWWLW
- AC Nagano Parceiro
Japan J2 J3 League
09.05.26	Nagano Parceiro - Gifu	2:3 ✺
06.05.26	Consadole Sapporo - Nagano Parceiro	2:0 ✺
02.05.26	Nagano Parceiro - Fujieda MYFC	1:0 penalties ✺
29.04.26	Nagano Parceiro - Fukushima United	1:3 ✺
26.04.26	Matsumoto Yamaga - Nagano Parceiro	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14 LLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J2 J3 League
28.02.26	Nagano Parceiro - Omiya Ardija	1:2
Japan J3 League
11.09.24	Nagano Parceiro - Omiya Ardija	0:0
01.06.24	Omiya Ardija - Nagano Parceiro	4:1
Japan Emperors Cup
06.06.18	Omiya Ardija - Nagano Parceiro	1:0

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