Match Info

Primera A - Clausura - Round 17

Date: 25 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Palogrande (Manizales)

Where to Watch on TV:


Colombia	Win+ Futbol, Win play
South-america	RCN Nuestra Tele Internacional
Usa	Fanatiz


	Once Caldas		Unión Magdalena

	1	X	2
	1.48	4.2	7	Watch
	1.46	4.15	6.9	Watch
	1.44	4.34	7.02
	1.41	4.25	7.22	Watch
	1.46	4.15	6.75	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.45 ↑ (1.41)	4.22 ↓ (4.25)	6.98 ↓ (7.22)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Once Caldas
64.5%

Draw
22.2%

Unión Magdalena
13.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.5%

21.7%

12.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.3%

20%

13.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Once Caldas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

Unión Magdalena has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Once Caldas than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Unión Magdalena than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

Once Caldas - Unión Magdalena Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Aguirre J. (G) 22. Cuesta Santos J. D. 23. Cuesta Rodriguez K. A. 18. Riquett J. 30. Tamayo K. 19. Garcia M. 88. Mejia R. 7. Barrios M. 20. Garcia Castillo A. 28. Zuleta M. 17. Moreno D.	1. Mattalia J. (G) 15. Urrego Hector 18. Molina F. 27. Lerma J. 30. Mosquera D. 28. Mercado J. 24. Cantillo F. 10. Sarmiento J. 80. Hinojosa R. 9. Iguaran C. 21. Marquez R. (C)
Substitutes
8. Beltran E. 34. Cardona J. 92. Ibarguen A. 4. Navarro E. 35. Parra J. (G) 5. Rojas I. 32. Rojas T. 27. Villada K. 14. Zapata Ramirez J. A.	8. Colpa Bolano R. R. 16. Congo J. 29. Contreras J. 20. Giraldo J. 34. Heredia D. (G) 23. Lastre E. 11. Martinez M. 4. Murillo D. 6. Ortiz D.
Coaches
Herrera H.	Silva C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
19', Garcia M. 🟨,
43', 1 - 0, Moreno D. ⚽, Cuesta Santos J. D. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
62', Iguaran C. ↓, Contreras J. ↑,
73', Mercado J. ↓, Giraldo J. ↑,
73', Sarmiento J. ↓, Martinez M. ↑,
73', Mosquera D. ↓, Murillo D. ↑,
74', Garcia Castillo A. ↓, Beltran E. ↑,
74', Barrios M. ↓, Ibarguen A. ↑,
88', Garcia M. ↓, Rojas I. ↑,
88', Zuleta M. ↓, Zapata Ramirez J. A. ↑,
90+2', Riquett J. 🟨,
90+4', Riquett J. ↓, Cardona J. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 12 and 16).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Once Caldas won 0.

Recent form of Once Caldas has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Unión Magdalena has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Once Caldas may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Once Caldas is the undeniable favorite.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Once Caldas won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:7. (average 1.1:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Once Caldas won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:3. (average 1.5:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Once Caldas
Colombian Copa
22.10.25	Atlético Nacional - Once Caldas	2:0 ✺
Colombian Primera A
19.10.25	Llaneros SA - Once Caldas	2:0 ✺
13.10.25	Once Caldas - Independiente Medellín	1:5 ✺
Colombian Copa
09.10.25	Once Caldas - Atlético Nacional	0:1 ✺
Colombian Primera A
06.10.25	Deportivo La Equidad - Once Caldas	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 LLLLW
- Unión Magdalena
Colombian Primera A
17.10.25	Unión Magdalena - Envigado	3:1 ✺
12.10.25	Atlético Bucaramanga - Unión Magdalena	1:0 ✺
04.10.25	Unión Magdalena - Rionegro Águilas	3:2 ✺
27.09.25	Deportivo Pereira - Unión Magdalena	2:2 ✺
21.09.25	Unión Magdalena - Atlético Nacional	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 WLWTL

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera A
04.05.25	Unión Magdalena - Once Caldas	Abandoned
18.09.23	Unión Magdalena - Once Caldas	1:1
08.04.23	Once Caldas - Unión Magdalena	1:1
07.07.22	Unión Magdalena - Once Caldas	2:2
22.01.22	Once Caldas - Unión Magdalena	1:1
29.10.19	Once Caldas - Unión Magdalena	3:1
05.05.19	Unión Magdalena - Once Caldas	1:0

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