Match Info

Primera A - Clausura - Round 14

Date: 6 October 2025, Monday

Location: Estadio Metropolitano de Techo (Bogotá)

Where to Watch on TV:


Colombia	Win+ Futbol, Win play
Mexico	Fanatiz
South-america	RCN Nuestra Tele Internacional
Usa	Fanatiz, Fubo Latino 2


	Deportivo La Equidad		Once Caldas

	1	X	2
	4.33	3.5	1.83	Watch
	3.1	3.1	2.25
	4.25	3.35	1.85	Watch
	4.59	3.39	1.85
	3.98	3.20	1.98	Watch
	4.11	3.24	1.92	Watch
	3.05	3.05	2.24
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.92 ↑ (2.92)	3.26 ↑ (2.98)	1.99 ↓ (2.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportivo La Equidad
24%

Draw
28.8%

Once Caldas
47.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.2%

31.5%

36.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.1%

32.4%

35.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportivo La Equidad has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Deportivo La Equidad's form might have worsened.

Once Caldas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Once Caldas's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportivo La Equidad than the current prediction. (+9.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Deportivo La Equidad, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Once Caldas than the current prediction. (-11.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Once Caldas, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	6.2%	81.2%

Deportivo La Equidad - Once Caldas Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. La Equidad will win (votes: 2 - 12.5%). Once Caldas will win (votes: 13 - 81.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 6.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Once Caldas: 62.2% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Once Caldas will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
32. Gomez Palacio Y. A. (G) 13. Abonia Y. 4. Rodas M. (C) 2. Vivas C. 26. Gomez Mosquera Y. A. 17. Chaverra F. 10. Mayo S. 5. Masllorens J. 8. Monaco M. 30. Parra Atehortua K. 18. Bolivar J.	12. Aguirre J. (G) 22. Cuesta Santos J. D. 23. Cuesta Rodriguez K. A. 3. Malagon J. 34. Cardona J. 19. Garcia M. 88. Mejia R. 7. Barrios M. 10. Sanchez L. 9. Gomez P. 17. Moreno D.
Substitutes
1. Beltran E. (G) 23. Castilla J. 31. Julio R. 7. Micolta Piedahita J. 16. Montano B. 22. Pena D. 15. Quinones D. 29. Santamaria M. 9. Valencia J.	24. Palacios L. 35. Parra J. (G) 70. Quinones D. 18. Riquett J. 5. Rojas I. 14. Zapata Ramirez J. A. 28. Zuleta M.
Coaches
Merino D.	Herrera H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
14', Mejia R. 🟥,
22', 0 - 1, Malagon J. ⚽, Gomez P. (A),
27', Abonia Y. 🟨,
31', Vivas C. 🟨,
45+3', Cuesta Rodriguez K. A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Moreno D. ↓, Zapata Ramirez J. A. ↑,
53', Abonia Y. ↓, Julio R. ↑,
53', Parra Atehortua K. ↓, Micolta Piedahita J. ↑,
65', Rodas M. 🟨,
65', Bolivar J. 🟨,
66', Gomez P. ↓, Zuleta M. ↑,
66', Chaverra F. ↓, Valencia J. ↑,
71', Julio R. 🟨,
76', Sanchez L. 🟨,
78', Monaco M. ↓, Castilla J. ↑,
78', Mayo S. ↓, Pena D. ↑,
82', Barrios M. ↓, Palacios L. ↑,
82', Sanchez L. ↓, Rojas I. ↑,
90+1', Vivas C. 🟨,
90+2', Zapata Ramirez J. A. (Pen),

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 20 and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, La Equidad won 0.

La Equidad is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Once Caldas has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

La Equidad may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Once Caldas will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, La Equidad won 5 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 23:23. (average 1.2:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, La Equidad won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 16:10. (average 1.6:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Once Caldas - the odds 2.59 are the expected chance of winning is 36.26%, but this team recently wins 27% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo La Equidad
Colombian Primera A
28.09.25	Independiente Santa Fe - Deportivo La Equidad	3:0 ✺
20.09.25	Deportivo La Equidad - Deportivo Cali	0:4 ✺
12.09.25	Junior Barranquilla - Deportivo La Equidad	1:1 ✺
07.09.25	Fortaleza CEIF - Deportivo La Equidad	1:0 ✺
31.08.25	Deportivo La Equidad - Deportivo Pasto	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 LLTLT
- Once Caldas
Colombian Copa
01.10.25	Once Caldas - Deportivo Pasto	4:0 ✺
Colombian Primera A
26.09.25	Once Caldas - Boyacá Chicó	5:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
24.09.25	Once Caldas - Independiente del Valle	0:3 penalties ✺
Colombian Primera A
19.09.25	América de Cali - Once Caldas	2:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
17.09.25	Independiente del Valle - Once Caldas	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.8 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera A
16.04.25	Once Caldas - Deportivo La Equidad	3:0
03.08.24	Deportivo La Equidad - Once Caldas	1:1
31.05.24	Deportivo La Equidad - Once Caldas	1:2
05.05.24	Once Caldas - Deportivo La Equidad	2:0
06.02.24	Once Caldas - Deportivo La Equidad	0:0
22.09.23	Once Caldas - Deportivo La Equidad	1:1
11.04.23	Deportivo La Equidad - Once Caldas	4:1

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