Match Info

USA: USL League One

Date: 15 October 2024, Tuesday

Location: Regal Stadium (Knoxville, TN)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
World	Disney+


	One Knoxville		Central Valley Fuego

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.71	3.6	3.9
	1.74	3.65	3.95
	1.85	3.6	3.68
	1.96	3.61	3.61	Watch
	1.74	3.68	3.96	Watch
	1.74	3.65	3.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.79 ↑ (1.61)	3.63 ↓ (3.81)	3.84 ↓ (4.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

One Knoxville
51.1%

Draw
25.2%

Central Valley Fuego
23.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.5%

23.9%

19.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.2%

23.2%

19%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

One Knoxville has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that One Knoxville's form might have worsened.

Central Valley Fuego has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for One Knoxville than the current prediction. (+7.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for One Knoxville, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Central Valley Fuego than the current prediction. (-4.8%)

One Knoxville - Central Valley Fuego Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Garibay J. (G) 91. Calixtro G. 5. Crisler J. 4. Skelton J. (C) 13. Fernandez D. 16. Thomas J. 3. Haugli S. 12. Johnson C. 11. Ross F. 21. Zarokostas S. 10. Tekiela K.	23. Avilez C. (G) 15. Torr C. 33. Vinberg S. 24. Bustamante B. 31. Nembhard D. 32. Mariona J. 8. Heckenberg C. (C) 10. Carrera J. 3. Apollon A. 34. Garcia K. 35. Smuck Z.
Substitutes
45. Adjei K. 17. Ballard R. 18. Benton D. 9. Castro R. 31. Keener E. (G) 8. Kelly-Rosales A. 40. O'Hearn S. 15. Santos L. 6. van der Pluijm Y.	9. Benson Bodden D. O. 17. Lemus O. 11. Mendiola R. 14. Vazquez Z. 19. Williams T. 1. Zuluaga A. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
29', 0 - 1, Smuck Z. ⚽, Carrera J. (A),
30', Tekiela K. 🟨,
36', 1 - 1, Zarokostas S. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
53', Bustamante B. 🟨,
61', Thomas J. ↓, Castro R. ↑,
61', Ross F. ↓, Ballard R. ↑,
64', Apollon A. ↓, Lemus O. ↑,
64', Garcia K. ↓, Benson Bodden D. O. ↑,
70', Crisler J. 🟨,
72', Johnson C. ↓, Kelly-Rosales A. ↑,
73', Zarokostas S. ↓, Adjei K. ↑,
75', 2 - 1, Castro R. ⚽,
82', Fernandez D. ↓, O'Hearn S. ↑,
85', Smuck Z. ↓, Vazquez Z. ↑,

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- One Knoxville SC
USL League One
05.10.24	Chattanooga Red Wolves - One Knoxville	1:1 ✺
01.10.24	One Knoxville - Forward Madison	1:1 ✺
21.09.24	Union Omaha - One Knoxville	1:0 ✺
13.09.24	Lexington - One Knoxville	0:1 ✺
07.09.24	One Knoxville - Charlotte Independence	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 TTLWT
- Central Valley Fuego
USL League One
09.10.24	Central Valley Fuego - Spokane Velocity	1:0 ✺
02.10.24	Central Valley Fuego - Northern Colorado Hailstorm	0:1 ✺
21.09.24	Greenville Triumph - Central Valley Fuego	2:2 ✺
18.09.24	Lexington - Central Valley Fuego	7:1 ✺
07.09.24	Spokane Velocity - Central Valley Fuego	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 WLTLL

Latest Head to Head

USL League One
17.05.24	Central Valley Fuego - One Knoxville	0:2
29.07.23	Central Valley Fuego - One Knoxville	0:1
30.04.23	Central Valley Fuego - One Knoxville	0:1
12.04.23	One Knoxville - Central Valley Fuego	1:1

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