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Current Win Probability
Orange County SC 26.3%
Draw 25.6%
Louisville City 48.2%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
22.5%
25%
52.6%
Our Initial ML Estimation
22.1%
24.6%
53.5%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Orange County SC has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)
Louisville City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Orange County SC than the current prediction. (-4.2%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Louisville City than the current prediction. (+5.3%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Louisville City could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Orange County SC - Louisville City Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Rando A. (G) 4. Benalcazar N. 5. Brewitt T. (C) 6. Tubbs G. 23. Doghman R. 25. Solis E. 8. Sylla O. 27. Kelly S. 10. Hegardt C. 14. Cambridge B. 12. Bazini Y.
1. Fauroux H. (G) 2. McFadden A. 5. Dayes B. 13. Dia A. (C) 3. Morris J. 27. Davila E. 21. Huerman Q. 6. Duncan Z. 23. Gleadle S. 14. Showunmi T. 7. Serrano R.
Substitutes
20. Bunbury M. 30. Castro J. 32. Ciotta N. 15. Espy T. 31. Kadono T. (G) 28. O'Brien F. 18. Palomino M. 9. Zubak E.
47. Akale M. 8. Davila T. 9. Donovan C. 28. Duke C. 12. Faundez D. (G) 15. Perez E. 4. Totsch S. 25. Wilson J.
Coaches
Stone D.
Bird S.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 1)
6', 0 - 1, Serrano R. ⚽, Showunmi T. (A),
45+1', Duncan Z. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 2)
46', Duncan Z. ↓, Davila T. ↑,
46', Solis E. ↓, Palomino M. ↑,
48', 0 - 2, Serrano R. ⚽, Huerman Q. (A),
64', Showunmi T. ↓, Donovan C. ↑,
64', Morris J. ↓, Totsch S. ↑,
68', 0 - 3, Donovan C. ⚽, Huerman Q. (A),
68', Hegardt C. ↓, Zubak E. ↑,
70', 1 - 3, Sylla O. ⚽,
71', Serrano R. ↓, Wilson J. ↑,
79', Gleadle S. ↓, Perez E. ↑,
81', 2 - 3, Bazini Y. (Penalty Awarded),
81', Kelly S. ↓, Ciotta N. ↑,
81', Cambridge B. ↓, Bunbury M. ↑,
90', Doghman R. ↓, Castro J. ↑,
Preview
One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).
Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.
Orange County SC may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
Louisville City is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Orange County SC won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 2:9. (average 0.5:2.3).
Including home matches between the teams, Orange County SC won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:3. (average 0.5:1.5).
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Rando A. (G) 
Brewitt T. (C) 
Doghman R. 
Sylla O. 
Kelly S. 
Cambridge B. 
Bazini Y. 
Fauroux H. (G) 
Duncan Z. 
Kadono T. (G) 
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