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Current Win Probability
Tampa Bay Rowdies 38.4%
Draw 27.6%
Louisville City 34%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
52.6%
25.2%
22.2%
Our Initial ML Estimation
55%
24.1%
21.2%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Tampa Bay Rowdies has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-14.2%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Tampa Bay Rowdies's form might have worsened.
Louisville City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.8%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Louisville City's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tampa Bay Rowdies than the current prediction. (+16.6%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Tampa Bay Rowdies, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Louisville City than the current prediction. (-12.8%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Louisville City, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Tampa Bay Rowdies - Louisville City Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Waite J. (G) 2. Antley C. 23. Schneider M. 62. Dossantos N. 20. Ostrem C. 4. Hilton L. 30. Cruz S. 27. Wyke L. 13. Perez L. 10. Cicerone R. 9. Myers M.
1. Fauroux H. (G) 15. Perez E. 2. McFadden A. 4. Totsch S. 32. Adams K. (C) 3. Morris J. 47. Akale M. 6. Duncan Z. 8. Davila T. 25. Wilson J. 9. Donovan C.
Substitutes
21. Bartlow E. 7. Conway E. 14. Henderlong K. 16. Micaletto M. 33. Nigro G. 24. Pack A. (G) 8. Pedro Becker 36. Rodriguez A.
27. Davila E. 13. Dia A. 12. Faundez D. (G) 23. Gleadle S. 21. Huerman Q. 7. Serrano R. 14. Showunmi T.
Coaches
Casciato D.
Bird S.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 0)
20', Davila T. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Antley C. ↓, Pedro Becker ↑,
46', Perez L. ↓, Micaletto M. ↑,
51', Wyke L. 🟨,
59', Wilson J. 🟨,
69', Morris J. ↓, Dia A. ↑,
69', Duncan Z. ↓, Davila E. ↑,
69', Wilson J. ↓, Serrano R. ↑,
71', Myers M. ↓, Henderlong K. ↑,
71', Wyke L. ↓, Nigro G. ↑,
80', Akale M. ↓, Huerman Q. ↑,
80', Cicerone R. ↓, Conway E. ↑,
81', Davila E. 🟨,
82', Perez E. ↓, Gleadle S. ↑,
Penalties (3 - 5)
1, Totsch S. (Penalty Awarded),
1, Pedro Becker (Penalty Awarded),
2, Donovan C. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Schneider M. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Davila E. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Nigro G. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Huerman Q. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Hilton L. (Penalty Awarded),
5, Davila T. (Penalty Awarded),
Preview
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tampa Bay won 2.
Tampa Bay has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).
Louisville City has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
Louisville City may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
Tampa Bay could have a small edge in this match.
In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Tampa Bay won 8 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 30:30. (average 1.6:1.6).
Including home matches between the teams, Tampa Bay won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 17:14. (average 2.1:1.8).
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Waite J. (G) 
Antley C. 
Schneider M. 
Dossantos N. 
Hilton L. 
Perez L. 
Adams K. (C) 
Duncan Z. 
Micaletto M. 
Pedro Becker 
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