The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Louisville City 66.2%
Draw 19.4%
Birmingham Legion 14.4%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
64.8%
20.3%
14.9%
Our Initial ML Estimation
66.1%
19.9%
14.6%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Louisville City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)
Birmingham Legion has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Louisville City than the current prediction. (-0.1%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Birmingham Legion than the current prediction. (+0.2%)
Louisville City - Birmingham Legion Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Fauroux H. (G) 4. Totsch S. 31. Lambert K. 32. Adams K. (C) 2. McFadden A. 6. Duncan Z. 8. Davila T. 3. Morris J. 47. Akale M. 9. Donovan C. 25. Wilson J.
1. Koleilat J. (G) 77. Brown N. 27. Washington B. 3. Kavita P. 11. McCartney D. 18. Antwi S. 10. Shashoua S. 21. Tregarthen S. 16. Vassell P. 19. Diarbian G. 9. Damus R.
Substitutes
99. Conley C. 27. Davila E. 13. Dia A. 28. Duke C. 12. Faundez D. (G) 15. Perez E. 7. Serrano R. 14. Showunmi T.
8. Cole K. 26. Daley A. 6. McIllhatton S. 12. McMullen T. (G) 81. Ngoma S. 7. Saucedo S. 17. Williams R.
Coaches
Bird S.
Heaps J.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 1)
6', 1 - 0, Lambert K. ⚽, McFadden A. (A),
17', Duncan Z. 🟨,
32', Vassell P. 🟨,
34', Antwi S. 🟨,
42', 1 - 1, Shashoua S. ⚽, Diarbian G. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Duncan Z. ↓, Davila E. ↑,
54', McFadden A. 🟨,
55', Diarbian G. 🟨,
58', McFadden A. ↓, Perez E. ↑,
61', Damus R. ↓, Williams R. ↑,
61', Vassell P. ↓, McIllhatton S. ↑,
74', 2 - 1, Lambert K. ⚽, Davila T. (A),
74', Donovan C. ↓, Showunmi T. ↑,
74', Wilson J. ↓, Serrano R. ↑,
80', McCartney D. ↓, Saucedo S. ↑,
87', Morris J. ↓, Dia A. ↑,
88', Diarbian G. ↓, Ngoma S. ↑,
88', Serrano R. 🟨,
90', Saucedo S. 🟨,
Preview
A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 11).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Louisville City won 3.
Louisville City is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).
Birmingham's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins โ 1).
Louisville City may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
In this match, Louisville City is the undeniable favorite.
In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Louisville City won 6 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 23:13. (average 1.8:1).
Including home matches between the teams, Louisville City won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 15:6. (average 2.5:1).
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Fauroux H. (G) 
Totsch S. 
Lambert K. 
Adams K. (C) 
Duncan Z. 
Koleilat J. (G) 
Kavita P. 
Antwi S. 
Shashoua S. 
Tregarthen S. 
Damus R. 
Cole K. 
Daley A. 
