Match Info

USA: USL CHAMPIONSHIP

Date: 6 May 2023, Saturday

Location: Championship Soccer Stadium (Irvine)

Referee: Arreguin E. (Usa)


	Orange County SC		San Diego Loyal

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.8	3.4	2.1
	2.7	3.35	2.35
	3.02	3.53	2.26
	2.91	3.48	2.2	Watch
	2.9	3.45	2.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.87 ↑ (2.75)	3.44 ↑ (3.4)	2.22 ↓ (2.27)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Orange County SC
32%

Draw
26.7%

San Diego Loyal
41.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.1%

26.8%

40.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.6%

26.4%

40.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Orange County SC has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

San Diego Loyal has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Orange County SC than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for San Diego Loyal than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	50%	50%

Orange County SC - San Diego Loyal Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. San Diego Loyal will win (votes: 2 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 11 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Orange County SC has the most likely position - 9 (13.18%), project points - 43, currently - 6, a good chance of playoffs (54%), a chance of qtrs (23%), a small chance of semis (11%), a very small chance of final (5%), a very small chance of win league (2%).

San Diego Loyal has the most likely position - 2 (15.54%), project points - 56, currently - 14, a good chance of playoffs (92%), a good chance of qtrs (53%), a chance of semis (28%), a small chance of final (14%), a small chance of win league (8%).

This event has small quality 21, small importance 16, small match rating 19. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Orange County SC won 2.

Orange County SC is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches San Diego Loyal is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 10 head-to-head matches Orange County SC won 3 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 12-13.

Including matches at home between the teams Orange County SC won 1 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 6-6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Orange County SC
USL Championship
29.04.23	New Mexico United - Orange County SC	3:1 ✺
US Open Cup
26.04.23	Portland Timbers - Orange County SC	3:1 ✺
USL Championship
22.04.23	Orange County SC - Birmingham Legion	1:2 ✺
15.04.23	Orange County SC - Indy Eleven	1:0 ✺
08.04.23	El Paso Locomotive - Orange County SC	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.9 LLLWL
- San Diego Loyal
USL Championship
29.04.23	San Diego Loyal - El Paso Locomotive	1:2 ✺
US Open Cup
26.04.23	Seattle Sounders - San Diego Loyal	5:4 ✺
USL Championship
23.04.23	San Diego Loyal - Tampa Bay Rowdies	1:0 ✺
15.04.23	New Mexico United - San Diego Loyal	1:1 ✺
08.04.23	San Diego Loyal - Tulsa	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 LLWTW

Latest Head to Head

USL Championship
01.10.22	Orange County SC - San Diego Loyal	2:2
30.07.22	Orange County SC - San Diego Loyal	2:3
29.06.22	San Diego Loyal - Orange County SC	2:1
20.10.21	Orange County SC - San Diego Loyal	1:0
21.08.21	San Diego Loyal - Orange County SC	1:2
14.07.21	San Diego Loyal - Orange County SC	2:1
09.06.21	Orange County SC - San Diego Loyal	1:1

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