Match Info

Premier League - Round 12

Date: 28 May 2026, Thursday

Location: Stadion Kazhymukan Munaitpasov (Šymkent)

Referee: Sariev B. (Kaz)

Where to Watch on TV:


Kazakhstan	Qazsport


	Ordabasy		Kairat

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.32	3.05	3	Watch
	2.37	3.1	3.13
	2.38	2.96	3.05	Watch
	2.25	3	2.75
	2.35	3.07	3.21	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.33 ↓ (2.39)	3.04 ↓ (3.07)	3.03 ↑ (2.91)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ordabasy
39.4%

Draw
30.3%

Kairat
30.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.5%

29.9%

31.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.7%

29%

30.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ordabasy has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

Kairat has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ordabasy than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kairat than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	50%	25%

Ordabasy - Kairat Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Ordabasy will win (votes: 2 - 25%). Kairat will win (votes: 2 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Shayzada B. (G) 3. Kilama G. 25. Maliy S. (C) 55. Amanovic A. 22. Astanov S. 11. Vakulko Y. 16. Capatina M. 77. Abagna D. 5. Antic N. 15. Amir Z. 10. Astanov E.	1. Anarbekov T. (G) 24. Mrynskiy A. 14. Martynovich A. (C) 25. Shirobokov A. 3. Mata L. 18. Glazer D. 13. Oksanen J. 19. Jukkola O. 7. Jorginho 10. Satpaev D. 9. Edmilson
Substitutes
24. Abdukhalyk A. (G) 23. Khalmatov M. 19. Leo Natel 45. Mitkov D. 7. Naumets V. 20. Toktybay M. 13. Tolepbergen K. (G) 14. Turganov A.	8. Baybek O. 81. Bekbolat I. 82. Kalmurza S. (G) 5. Kurgin L. 44. Lucas Africo 6. Sadybekov A. 20. Tapalov E. 17. Tuyakbaev A. 11. Zeballos S.
Coaches
Martin A.	Urazbakhtin R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
14', 0 - 1, Jorginho ⚽, Edmilson (A),
26', 1 - 1, Kilama G. ⚽,
41', Glazer D. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
49', Capatina M. 🟨,
56', Vakulko Y. ↓, Leo Natel ↑,
62', Edmilson ↓, Tuyakbaev A. ↑,
62', Glazer D. ↓, Baybek O. ↑,
64', 2 - 1, Astanov E. ⚽,
64', Astanov E. 🟨,
76', Kilama G. 🟨,
80', Astanov E. ↓, Toktybay M. ↑,
80', Amir Z. ↓, Khalmatov M. ↑,
85', Jukkola O. ↓, Bekbolat I. ↑,
90', 🟨,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: ) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ordabasy won 1.

Ordabasy has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Kairat is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Recently, Kairat has had a series of away games.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ordabasy won 8 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 21:33. (average 1.1:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Ordabasy won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 13:12. (average 1.2:1.1).

Outrights of Kazakh Premier League for now

Ordabasy: 69.49% Kairat Almaty: 29.59%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Ordabasy	26	19	4	3	51:18	33	61
2	Kairat Almaty	26	17	6	3	51:20	31	57

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Ordabasy
Kazakh Premier League
23.05.26	Tobol Kostanay - Ordabasy	0:3 ✺
17.05.26	Ordabasy - Zhetysu	2:1 ✺
Kazakh Cup
13.05.26	Ordabasy - Zhetysu	1:0 ✺
Kazakh Premier League
10.05.26	Altai Semey - Ordabasy	0:0 ✺
03.05.26	Ordabasy - Aktobe	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 WWWTW
- Kairat Almaty
Kazakh Premier League
23.05.26	Kairat - Kaisar	0:0 ✺
17.05.26	Zhenis - Kairat	1:2 ✺
10.05.26	Ulytau - Kairat	1:1 ✺
06.05.26	Kaisar - Kairat	1:2 ✺
02.05.26	Ertis Pavlodar - Kairat	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 TWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Kazakh Premier League
29.06.25	Ordabasy - Kairat	0:1
Kazakh Cup
14.05.25	Ordabasy - Kairat	1:0
Kazakh Premier League
08.03.25	Kairat - Ordabasy	4:0
02.11.24	Kairat - Ordabasy	2:1
31.03.24	Ordabasy - Kairat	1:2
20.08.23	Ordabasy - Kairat	1:0
23.04.23	Kairat - Ordabasy	2:2

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