Match Info

Premier League - Round 9

Date: 10 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Stadion Metallurg (Zhezqazghan)

Referee: Kuchma A. (Kaz)


	Ulytau		Kairat

	1	X	2
				Watch
	4.95	3.85	1.6	Watch
	5.14	4	1.59
	4.79	3.81	1.62	Watch
	4.8	3.6	1.57
	5.21	3.88	1.63
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.98 ↑ (3.45)	3.83 ↑ (3.45)	1.6 ↓ (1.97)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ulytau
18.5%

Draw
24%

Kairat
57.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.7%

46.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.7%

48.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ulytau has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ulytau's form might have worsened.

Kairat has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Kairat's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ulytau than the current prediction. (+7.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ulytau, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kairat than the current prediction. (-8.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Kairat, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Ulytau - Kairat Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Kairat (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Kairat will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Nepogodov D. (G) 13. Malikaydar S. 28. Bugulov G. 25. Bukhal G. 3. Keiler S. 90. Martin D. 10. Taubay A. 18. Bougnone A. 14. Harada H. 11. Smith A. 7. Kishi K.	1. Anarbekov T. (G) 24. Mrynskiy A. 14. Martynovich A. 44. Lucas Africo 3. Mata L. 18. Glazer D. 6. Sadybekov A. 17. Tuyakbaev A. 7. Jorginho 19. Jukkola O. 10. Satpaev D.
Substitutes
20. Abylaykhan R. 12. Afanasenko V. 4. Chalkin M. 17. Daniyarov B. 69. Maulenov D. 19. Mukanbetzhanov A. 21. Nurali O. 6. Nursultanov K. 9. Serikkul R. 40. Shcherbakov S. (G) 8. Vachiberadze B. 78. Zakirov T. (G)	27. Abish M. 23. Bagdat R. 8. Baybek O. 82. Kalmurza S. (G) 5. Kurgin L. 99. Ricardinho 25. Shirobokov A. 20. Tapalov E. 11. Zeballos S.
Coaches
Mazbaev N.	Urazbakhtin R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
33', 0 - 1, Satpaev D. ⚽, Jukkola O. (A),
34', Bougnone A. ↓, Nursultanov K. ↑,
41', Glazer D. 🟨,
45+2', Sadybekov A. 🟥,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
57', Malikaydar S. 🟨,
61', Malikaydar S. ↓, Chalkin M. ↑,
62', Taubay A. ↓, Abylaykhan R. ↑,
65', Anarbekov T. 🟨,
67', Chalkin M. 🟨,
70', Bugulov G. 🟨,
77', Jukkola O. ↓, Baybek O. ↑,
77', Kishi K. ↓, Daniyarov B. ↑,
78', Keiler S. ↓, Maulenov D. ↑,
83', Mata L. 🟨,
83', 1 - 1, Chalkin M. ⚽, Maulenov D. (A),
87', Tuyakbaev A. ↓, Bagdat R. ↑,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 5 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )).

Ulytau has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Kairat is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Ulytau may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Kairat is the team to beat.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Ulytau won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:5. (average 0.5:2.5).

Including home match between the teams, Ulytau won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:4.

Outrights of Kazakh Premier League for now

Kairat Almaty: 29.59%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Kairat Almaty	26	17	6	3	51:20	31	57
9	Ulytau	26	8	8	10	24:32	-8	32

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Ulytau
Kazakh Premier League
03.05.26	Ulytau - Yelimay Semey	1:0 ✺
Kazakh Cup
30.04.26	Altai Semey - Ulytau	4:3 ET ✺
Kazakh Premier League
26.04.26	Zhetysu - Ulytau	2:0 ✺
19.04.26	Ulytau - Tobol Kostanay	2:1 ✺
12.04.26	Altai Semey - Ulytau	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.2 WLLWW
- Kairat Almaty
Kazakh Premier League
06.05.26	Kaisar - Kairat	1:2 ✺
02.05.26	Ertis Pavlodar - Kairat	0:1 ✺
Kazakh Cup
29.04.26	Kaisar - Kairat	2:1 ✺
Kazakh Premier League
26.04.26	Kairat - Yelimay Semey	2:2 ✺
18.04.26	Kairat - Kaspiy Aktau	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 WWLTW

Latest Head to Head

Kazakh Premier League
02.08.25	Kairat - Ulytau	1:0
03.05.25	Ulytau - Kairat	1:4

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