Match Info

Premier League - Round 20

Date: 6 May 2026, Wednesday

Location: Kaysar Arena (Kyzylorda)

Referee: Tasybaev A. (Rus)


	Kaisar		Kairat

	1	X	2
	3.9	3.5	1.72
	4.45	3.8	1.65	Watch
	5.15	3.9	1.68
	4.11	3.78	1.73	Watch
	4.6	3.5	1.62
	4.54	3.88	1.69
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.46 ↑ (3.86)	3.73 ↓ (3.82)	1.68 ↓ (1.77)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kaisar
20.6%

Draw
24.7%

Kairat
54.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23.9%

24.1%

52%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.3%

23.5%

53.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kaisar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

Kairat has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kaisar than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kairat than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	30.8%	69.2%

Kaisar - Kairat Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Kairat will win (votes: 9 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Kairat: 50.5% – 99.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Kairat (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Salaydin N. (G) 3. Tolegenov A. 17. Zhumabekov S. 51. Mokhammad A. 7. Tazhibay B. 6. Kaldybekov E. 8. Abiken A. 24. Cuckic N. 12. Sovet S. 96. Mukhammed A. 14. Jones T.	1. Anarbekov T. (G) 20. Tapalov E. 14. Martynovich A. 44. Lucas Africo 3. Mata L. 8. Baybek O. 13. Oksanen J. 24. Mrynskiy A. 10. Satpaev D. 19. Jukkola O. 9. Edmilson
Substitutes
9. Agzambaev N. 16. Azhikhan A. (G) 70. Ezekiel I. 15. Idrisov N. 47. Konlimkos B. 40. Kovac A. (G) 42. Miqueias 11. Moses V. 18. Rustemuly D. 21. Serikuly D. 23. Zhumat M.	23. Bagdat R. 18. Glazer D. 82. Kalmurza S. (G) 5. Kurgin L. 99. Ricardinho 6. Sadybekov A. 25. Shirobokov A. 17. Tuyakbaev A. 11. Zeballos S.
Coaches
Ferapontov A.	Urazbakhtin R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
2', 0 - 1, Satpaev D. ⚽,
13', Jukkola O. 🟨,
17', Mrynskiy A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
54', Oksanen J. 🟨,
56', Jones T. ↓, Moses V. ↑,
58', Abiken A. 🟨,
59', Edmilson ↓, Tuyakbaev A. ↑,
61', Martynovich A. 🟨,
63', Kaldybekov E. ↓, Miqueias ↑,
63', Sovet S. ↓, Serikuly D. ↑,
69', Tazhibay B. ↓, Rustemuly D. ↑,
69', Mokhammad A. ↓, Idrisov N. ↑,
71', 1 - 1, Abiken A. ⚽,
76', Salaydin N. 🟨,
78', Satpaev D. (Penalty Awarded),
78', Tapalov E. ↓, Bagdat R. ↑,
78', Bagdat R. 🟨,
79', Oksanen J. 🟥,
79', 🟨,
79', Moses V. 🟨,
84', Baybek O. ↓, Sadybekov A. ↑,
84', Bagdat R. ↓, Glazer D. ↑,
88', 1 - 2, Martynovich A. ⚽,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 13 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kaisar won 2.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

In this match, Kairat is the team to beat.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Kaisar won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 17:34. (average 0.9:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Kaisar won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 9:14. (average 0.8:1.3).

Outrights of Kazakh Premier League for now

Kairat Almaty: 29.59%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Kairat Almaty	26	17	6	3	51:20	31	57
13	Kaisar Kyzylorda	26	4	12	10	22:33	-11	24

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kaisar Kyzylorda
Kazakh Premier League
02.05.26	Kaisar - Zhetysu	1:1 ✺
Kazakh Cup
29.04.26	Kaisar - Kairat	2:1 ✺
Kazakh Premier League
25.04.26	Okzhetpes - Kaisar	1:1 ✺
19.04.26	Kaisar - Altai Semey	1:1 ✺
11.04.26	Atyrau - Kaisar	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.8 TWTTL
- Kairat Almaty
Kazakh Premier League
02.05.26	Ertis Pavlodar - Kairat	0:1 ✺
Kazakh Cup
29.04.26	Kaisar - Kairat	2:1 ✺
Kazakh Premier League
26.04.26	Kairat - Yelimay Semey	2:2 ✺
18.04.26	Kairat - Kaspiy Aktau	2:0 ✺
11.04.26	Tobol Kostanay - Kairat	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 WLTWT

Latest Head to Head

Kazakh Cup
29.04.26	Kaisar - Kairat	2:1
Kazakh Premier League
19.07.25	Kairat - Kaisar	1:1
20.04.25	Kaisar - Kairat	0:0
21.09.24	Kairat - Kaisar	1:0
27.04.24	Kaisar - Kairat	1:0
29.07.23	Kaisar - Kairat	0:0
21.05.23	Kairat - Kaisar	0:3

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