Match Info

Premier League - Round 10

Date: 17 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Astana Arena (Astana)

Referee: Sultangaliev R. (Kaz)

Where to Watch on TV:


Kazakhstan	Qazsport


	Zhenis		Kairat

	1	X	2
	4.15	3.25	1.85	Watch
	4.05	3.36	1.9
	4.13	3.73	1.73	Watch
	3.9	3.2	1.85
	4.59	3.51	1.78	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.16 ↓ (4.48)	3.41 ↑ (3.21)	1.82 ↑ (1.81)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Zhenis
22.2%

Draw
27.1%

Kairat
50.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.5%

28.7%

50.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.6%

26%

46.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Zhenis has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

Kairat has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Zhenis than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kairat than the current prediction. (-4.6%)

Zhenis - Kairat Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): -1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
41. Plotnikov M. (G) 14. Saulet A. 63. Saravanja I. 13. Tursynbay S. 72. Askarov M. 8. Khaseyn M. 52. Merkel A. (C) 88. Martins G. 10. Imnadze L. 19. Adilio 93. Elder Santana	1. Anarbekov T. (G) 20. Tapalov E. 14. Martynovich A. (C) 25. Shirobokov A. 3. Mata L. 18. Glazer D. 13. Oksanen J. 24. Mrynskiy A. 7. Jorginho 19. Jukkola O. 10. Satpaev D.
Substitutes
17. Adilov A. 30. Gorobchenko N. 45. Iyede S. 21. Kamaradinov B. 9. Lobjanidze E. 18. Madelkhan B. 77. Shanshar N. (G) 1. Sotnik I. (G) 5. Tevzadze Z. 23. Ulshin A.	27. Abish M. 23. Bagdat R. 8. Baybek O. 81. Bekbolat I. 82. Kalmurza S. (G) 5. Kurgin L. 17. Tuyakbaev A. 11. Zeballos S.
Coaches
Aliyev A.	Urazbakhtin R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
27', Khaseyn M. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
52', 0 - 1, Jukkola O. ⚽, Jorginho (A),
61', Khaseyn M. ↓, Tevzadze Z. ↑,
64', Tursynbay S. 🟨,
65', 0 - 2, Jorginho ⚽, Jukkola O. (A),
74', Mrynskiy A. ↓, Tuyakbaev A. ↑,
82', Askarov M. ↓, Lobjanidze E. ↑,
82', Jukkola O. ↓, Zeballos S. ↑,
82', Merkel A. ↓, Ulshin A. ↑,
86', Anarbekov T. 🟨,
88', 1 - 2, Shirobokov A. (Own goal),

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 8 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Zhenis won 1.

Zhenis is in fantastic form, winning most of its recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Kairat has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Zhenis may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Kairat has had a series of away games.

In this match, Kairat is considered a favorite.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Zhenis won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 6:10. (average 1:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Zhenis won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:4. (average 1:1.3).

Outrights of Kazakh Premier League for now

Kairat Almaty: 29.59%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Kairat Almaty	26	17	6	3	51:20	31	57
8	Zhenis	26	8	8	10	26:32	-6	32

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Zhenis
Kazakh Cup
13.05.26	Zhenis - Kyzylzhar	2:0 ✺
Kazakh Premier League
09.05.26	Zhetysu - Zhenis	2:3 ✺
03.05.26	Zhenis - Tobol Kostanay	1:0 ✺
Kazakh Cup
29.04.26	Okzhetpes - Zhenis	2:3 ✺
Kazakh Premier League
25.04.26	Altai Semey - Zhenis	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.1 WWWWT
- Kairat Almaty
Kazakh Premier League
10.05.26	Ulytau - Kairat	1:1 ✺
06.05.26	Kaisar - Kairat	1:2 ✺
02.05.26	Ertis Pavlodar - Kairat	0:1 ✺
Kazakh Cup
29.04.26	Kaisar - Kairat	2:1 ✺
Kazakh Premier League
26.04.26	Kairat - Yelimay Semey	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 TWWLT

Latest Head to Head

Kazakh Premier League
22.09.25	Kairat - Zhenis	3:1
09.05.25	Zhenis - Kairat	1:2
Kazakh League Cup
25.09.24	Kairat - Zhenis	2:1 penalties
10.08.24	Zhenis - Kairat	2:0
Kazakh Premier League
14.07.24	Kairat - Zhenis	1:1
12.05.24	Zhenis - Kairat	0:2

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