Match Info

Premier League - Round 11

Date: 22 May 2026, Friday

Location: Astana Arena (Astana)

Referee: Sakhi D. (Kaz)

Where to Watch on TV:


Kazakhstan	Sport+


	Astana		Ulytau

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.58	3.75	5.15	Watch
	1.58	3.85	5.37
	1.57	4	4.99	Watch
	1.6	3.4	5
	1.61	3.81	5.58	Watch
	1.71	3.5	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.61 ↓ (1.85)	3.72 ↑ (3.4)	5.02 ↑ (3.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Astana
57%

Draw
24.7%

Ulytau
18.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.7%

27%

23.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.3%

25.7%

24.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Astana has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Astana's performance.

Ulytau has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Astana than the current prediction. (-9.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Astana that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ulytau than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Ulytau could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Astana - Ulytau Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Astana (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Astana will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
93. Condric J. (G) 6. Kasym A. 72. Basmanov S. 3. Kalaica B. 2. Bartolec K. 9. Islamkhan B. 7. Karaman D. 11. Vorogovskiy Y. 10. Tomasov M. 81. Karimov R. 47. Abrayev M.	1. Nepogodov D. (G) 13. Malikaydar S. 28. Bugulov G. 25. Bukhal G. 3. Keiler S. 14. Harada H. 18. Bougnone A. 10. Taubay A. 7. Kishi K. 11. Smith A. 90. Martin D.
Substitutes
22. Abdurasulov A. 20. Ahanonu N. 4. Anuarov S. 99. Karpikov D. (G) 5. Kazukolovas K. 74. Seysen M. (G) 77. Shomko D. 91. Token A. 19. Zhaksylyk N.	20. Abylaykhan R. 12. Afanasenko V. 4. Chalkin M. 17. Daniyarov B. 22. Kospayev E. 69. Maulenov D. 19. Mukanbetzhanov A. 21. Nurali O. 6. Nursultanov K. 9. Serikkul R. 40. Shcherbakov S. (G) 78. Zakirov T. (G)
Coaches
Babayan G.	Mazbaev N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
21', Basmanov S. 🟨,
23', 1 - 0, Karimov R. ⚽, Abrayev M. (A),
31', Karaman D. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
49', 2 - 0, Basmanov S. ⚽, Islamkhan B. (A),
59', Taubay A. ↓, Abylaykhan R. ↑,
59', Bougnone A. ↓, Nursultanov K. ↑,
70', Harada H. ↓, Serikkul R. ↑,
81', Basmanov S. ↓, Token A. ↑,
82', Abrayev M. ↓, Abdurasulov A. ↑,
82', Vorogovskiy Y. ↓, Shomko D. ↑,
85', Tomasov M. ↓, Zhaksylyk N. ↑,
87', 3 - 0, Kalaica B. ⚽,
90', Nursultanov K. 🟨,
90', Karaman D. ↓, Kazukolovas K. ↑,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 5 and 4).

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

In this match, Astana is the team to beat.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Astana won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:0. (average 3:0).

Including home match between the teams, Astana won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:0.

Outrights of Kazakh Premier League for now

FC Astana: 0.92%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	FC Astana	25	14	6	5	42:25	17	48
9	Ulytau	26	8	8	10	24:32	-8	32

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Astana
Kazakh Premier League
16.05.26	Okzhetpes - Astana	1:0 ✺
09.05.26	Astana - Kyzylzhar	2:1 ✺
03.05.26	Kaspiy Aktau - Astana	1:0 ✺
Kazakh Cup
29.04.26	Astana - Tobol Kostanay	1:2 ✺
Kazakh Premier League
26.04.26	Astana - Atyrau	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 LWLLW
- FC Ulytau
Kazakh Premier League
16.05.26	Ulytau - Kaspiy Aktau	1:0 ✺
10.05.26	Ulytau - Kairat	1:1 ✺
03.05.26	Ulytau - Yelimay Semey	1:0 ✺
Kazakh Cup
30.04.26	Altai Semey - Ulytau	4:3 ET ✺
Kazakh Premier League
26.04.26	Zhetysu - Ulytau	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 WTWLL

Latest Head to Head

Kazakh Premier League
17.08.25	Astana - Ulytau	4:0
18.05.25	Ulytau - Astana	0:2

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