Match Info

Premier League - Round 12

Date: 27 May 2026, Wednesday

Location: Centralnyj Stadion (Pavlodar)

Referee: Karabaev S. (Kaz)

Where to Watch on TV:


Kazakhstan	Sport+


	Ertis Pavlodar		Ulytau

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.25	3.2	2.98	Watch
	2.3	3.3	2.88
	2.56	3.07	2.7	Watch
	2.2	3	3
	2.37	3.3	2.95	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.34 ↓ (2.45)	3.17 ↓ (3.32)	2.9 ↑ (2.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ertis Pavlodar
39.4%

Draw
29%

Ulytau
31.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.6%

27.7%

34.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.3%

26.8%

35.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ertis Pavlodar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

Ulytau has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ertis Pavlodar than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ulytau than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
76.9%	7.7%	15.4%

Ertis Pavlodar - Ulytau Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Ertis will win (votes: 10 - 76.9%). Ulytau will win (votes: 2 - 15.4%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 7.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ertis: 54% – 99.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Ertis (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Botnar V. (G) 27. Nechaev D. 5. Toleuov B. 33. Ibrahim F. 12. Karimov R. 8. Zharynbetov S. 6. Shimamura Y. 97. Poe J. 7. Klimovich V. 10. Agimanov T. 18. Shvyrev V.	1. Nepogodov D. (G) 13. Malikaydar S. 28. Bugulov G. 25. Bukhal G. 3. Keiler S. 90. Martin D. 7. Kishi K. 18. Bougnone A. 14. Harada H. 9. Serikkul R. 11. Smith A.
Substitutes
13. Baybosynov N. 21. Buranchiev A. 4. Khadarkevich R. 15. Nyrkov D. 31. Rakhmetulla E. (G) 14. Raskatov V. 1. Rikhard M. (G) 98. Sedko P. 17. Turlybek M. 20. Usenov A.	20. Abylaykhan R. 12. Afanasenko V. 4. Chalkin M. 17. Daniyarov B. 22. Kospayev E. 69. Maulenov D. 21. Nurali O. 6. Nursultanov K. 40. Shcherbakov S. (G) 10. Taubay A. 8. Vachiberadze B.
Coaches
Zhumaskaliyev N.	Mazbaev N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
29', 0 - 1, Smith A. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Nechaev D. ↓, Nyrkov D. ↑,
47', Agimanov T. 🟨,
58', Karimov R. 🟨,
59', Agimanov T. ↓, Sedko P. ↑,
59', Zharynbetov S. ↓, Turlybek M. ↑,
70', Serikkul R. ↓, Nursultanov K. ↑,
74', Shvyrev V. ↓, Baybosynov N. ↑,
74', Karimov R. ↓, Buranchiev A. ↑,
74', 1 - 1, Klimovich V. ⚽, Nyrkov D. (A),
77', Nyrkov D. 🟨,
77', Keiler S. 🟨,
79', Harada H. ↓, Vachiberadze B. ↑,
79', Kishi K. ↓, Afanasenko V. ↑,
83', Keiler S. ↓, Maulenov D. ↑,
83', Smith A. ↓, Abylaykhan R. ↑,
90+3', 🟨,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 13 and 5).

Ertis is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Ulytau's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Ulytau	26	8	8	10	24:32	-8	32
11	Ertis Pavlodar	25	6	8	11	26:34	-8	26

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ertis Pavlodar
Kazakh Premier League
22.05.26	Kaspiy Aktau - Ertis Pavlodar	2:2 ✺
16.05.26	Ertis Pavlodar - Yelimay Semey	2:2 ✺
09.05.26	Tobol Kostanay - Ertis Pavlodar	1:0 ✺
02.05.26	Ertis Pavlodar - Kairat	0:1 ✺
Kazakh Cup
29.04.26	Ertis Pavlodar - Kyzylzhar	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 TTLLL
- FC Ulytau
Kazakh Premier League
22.05.26	Astana - Ulytau	3:0 ✺
16.05.26	Ulytau - Kaspiy Aktau	1:0 ✺
10.05.26	Ulytau - Kairat	1:1 ✺
03.05.26	Ulytau - Yelimay Semey	1:0 ✺
Kazakh Cup
30.04.26	Altai Semey - Ulytau	4:3 ET ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 LWTWL

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