Match Info

J3 League - Round 27

Date: 15 September 2025, Monday

Location: Hanazono Rugby Stadium (Higashiosaka)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Osaka		Tochigi City

	1	X	2
	2.5	3.2	2.45
	2.72	3.25	2.28
	2.6	3.3	2.63
	3.01	3.27	2.29	Watch
	2.92	3.44	2.3	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.75 ↑ (2.25)	3.29 ↑ (3.07)	2.39 ↓ (3.02)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Osaka
33.5%

Draw
28%

Tochigi City
38.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.4%

29.6%

30.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.9%

30.7%

29%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Osaka has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Osaka's form might have worsened.

Tochigi City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Tochigi City's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Osaka than the current prediction. (+8.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Osaka, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tochigi City than the current prediction. (-9.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Tochigi City, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
37.5%	12.5%	50%

Osaka - Tochigi City Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Osaka will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Tochigi City will win (votes: 4 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Tochigi City: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tochigi City (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Yamamoto T. (G) 13. Mima K. 5. Minakuchi Y. 3. Kawakami R. 6. Tachino S. 8. Haga A. 10. Kubo R. 27. Sawazaki R. 19. Masuda S. 11. Tone R. 9. Shimada T.	31. Aizawa P. (G) 5. Okui R. 42. Jonjic M. 28. Konishi K. 15. Sato Y. 26. Utsugi S. 16. Kato J. 10. Okaniwa Y. 39. Vasquez B. 17. Fujiwara T. 77. Tanaka P. J.
Substitutes
23. Akiyama T. 16. Hashimoto R. 7. Kitsui T. 39. Mochizuki S. 51. Nishimura M. 41. Nose R. 34. Sakamoto K. 31. Sugawara H. (G) 25. Takei S.	1. Harada Y. (G) 33. Inui T. 8. Mori T. 11. Omotehara G. 13. Oshima T. 79. Saito K. 22. Suzuki H. 40. Suzuki K. 90. Utaka P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
57', 1 - 0, Tone R. ⚽, Sawazaki R. (A),
58', Tone R. ↓, Nose R. ↑,
59', Utsugi S. ↓, Mori T. ↑,
59', Kato J. ↓, Saito K. ↑,
59', Fujiwara T. ↓, Utaka P. ↑,
73', Tachino S. ↓, Hashimoto R. ↑,
73', Haga A. ↓, Takei S. ↑,
74', Vasquez B. ↓, Oshima T. ↑,
76', Takei S. 🟨,
80', Mima K. ↓, Sakamoto K. ↑,
80', Sawazaki R. ↓, Akiyama T. ↑,
82', Tanaka P. J. ↓, Omotehara G. ↑,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ J3 League (Promotion ~ Play Offs: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ J3 League (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )).

Osaka is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Tochigi City's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Osaka won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Last Results with these Odds

Osaka - the odds 2.25 are the expected chance of winning is 40.37%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Osaka
Japan J3 League
07.09.25	Zweigen Kanazawa - Osaka	2:1 ✺
30.08.25	Osaka - Sagamihara	0:2 ✺
23.08.25	Vanraure Hachinohe - Osaka	1:1 ✺
16.08.25	Thespakusatsu Gunma - Osaka	2:0 ✺
26.07.25	Osaka - Kamatamare Sanuki	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 LLTLW
- Tochigi City FC
Japan J3 League
06.09.25	Tochigi City - Matsumoto Yamaga	3:2 ✺
30.08.25	Azul Claro Numazu - Tochigi City	4:5 ✺
23.08.25	Tochigi City - Zweigen Kanazawa	1:2 ✺
16.08.25	Fukushima United - Tochigi City	2:2 ✺
26.07.25	Tochigi City - Tochigi	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 WWLTL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J3 League
03.05.25	Tochigi City - Osaka	2:1

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