Match Info

J3 League - Round 26

Date: 6 September 2025, Saturday

Location: City Football Station (Tochigi)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Tochigi City		Matsumoto Yamaga

	1	X	2
	1.72	3.5	3.9
	1.75	3.5	3.85	Watch
	1.81	3.75	4.01
	1.72	3.81	4.31	Watch
	1.76	3.54	4.02	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.75 ↑ (1.67)	3.62 ↓ (3.72)	4.02 ↓ (4.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tochigi City
52.1%

Draw
25.2%

Matsumoto Yamaga
22.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.9%

24.6%

20.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.6%

25.3%

19.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tochigi City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

Matsumoto Yamaga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tochigi City than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Matsumoto Yamaga than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	25%	25%

Tochigi City - Matsumoto Yamaga Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Tochigi City will win (votes: 2 - 50%). Matsumoto Yamaga will win (votes: 1 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Matsumoto Yamaga (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Matsumoto Yamaga (2.08) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Matsumoto Yamaga (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Aizawa P. (G) 5. Okui R. 42. Jonjic M. 28. Konishi K. 15. Sato Y. 10. Okaniwa Y. 16. Kato J. 26. Utsugi S. 39. Vasquez B. 99. Hiraoka M. 77. Tanaka P. J.	1. Ouchi I. (G) 44. Nonomura T. 4. Takahashi S. 16. Miyabe T. 24. Ogawa D. 15. Yamamoto K. 25. Kawakami K. 40. Higuchi D. 41. Murakoshi K. 10. Kikui Y. 43. Hayashi M.
Substitutes
17. Fujiwara T. 1. Harada Y. (G) 8. Mori T. 11. Omotehara G. 13. Oshima T. 22. Suzuki H. 40. Suzuki K. 20. Tosa R. 90. Utaka P.	28. Fujieda K. 35. Kanda S. (G) 18. Ohashi H. 22. Saso K. 19. Sugita H. 23. Taki Y. 42. Tanaka S. 17. Yamamoto R. 46. Yasunaga R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 2)
18', 0 - 1, Kikui Y. ⚽,
20', 1 - 1, Hiraoka M. ⚽, Kato J. (A),
22', 2 - 1, Vasquez B. ⚽,
27', 2 - 2, Nonomura T. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Nonomura T. ↓, Sugita H. ↑,
50', Sugita H. 🟨,
59', 3 - 2, Okaniwa Y. ⚽,
63', Ogawa D. ↓, Yamamoto R. ↑,
63', Yamamoto K. ↓, Yasunaga R. ↑,
70', Murakoshi K. ↓, Tanaka S. ↑,
77', 🟨,
77', Takahashi S. 🟨,
86', Hayashi M. ↓, Fujieda K. ↑,
86', Okaniwa Y. ↓, Tosa R. ↑,
86', Kato J. ↓, Mori T. ↑,
90+1', Kikui Y. 🟨,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ J2 League and 11).

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

In this match, Tochigi City is considered a favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Tochigi City won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tochigi City FC
Japan J3 League
30.08.25	Azul Claro Numazu - Tochigi City	4:5 ✺
23.08.25	Tochigi City - Zweigen Kanazawa	1:2 ✺
16.08.25	Fukushima United - Tochigi City	2:2 ✺
26.07.25	Tochigi City - Tochigi	0:1 ✺
19.07.25	Tochigi City - Thespakusatsu Gunma	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 WLTLT
- Matsumoto Yamaga
Japan J3 League
30.08.25	Matsumoto Yamaga - Vanraure Hachinohe	0:0 ✺
23.08.25	Gainare Tottori - Matsumoto Yamaga	0:0 ✺
16.08.25	Matsumoto Yamaga - Ryūkyū	1:1 ✺
26.07.25	Matsumoto Yamaga - Gifu	1:0 ✺
19.07.25	Nagano Parceiro - Matsumoto Yamaga	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 TTTWL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J3 League
20.04.25	Matsumoto Yamaga - Tochigi City	0:1

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