Match Info

J3 League - Round 25

Date: 30 August 2025, Saturday

Location: Hanazono Rugby Stadium (Higashiosaka)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Osaka		Sagamihara

	1	X	2
	1.7	3.4	4.2
	1.68	3.35	4.55
	1.74	3.5	5.05
	1.87	2.94	4.95	Watch
	1.75	3.2	4.33
	1.79	2.98	5.7	Watch
	1.45	3.8	8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.71 ↑ (1.45)	3.31 ↓ (3.8)	5.25 ↓ (8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Osaka
54.3%

Draw
28.1%

Sagamihara
17.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64%

24.4%

11.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.9%

22.8%

12.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Osaka has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Osaka's form might have worsened.

Sagamihara has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Sagamihara's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Osaka than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Osaka, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sagamihara than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Sagamihara, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Osaka - Sagamihara Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Osaka will win (votes: 4 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0, 1st Half - Sagamihara (2.99) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Sagamihara (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Yamamoto T. (G) 37. Tsutsumi S. 5. Minakuchi Y. 3. Kawakami R. 6. Tachino S. 24. Sato R. 27. Sawazaki R. 33. Woo S. 11. Tone R. 51. Nishimura M. 9. Shimada T.	46. Baumann N. (G) 2. Kato D. 5. Tashiro M. 20. Yamauchi R. 26. Nishikubo S. 17. Takeuchi T. 10. Nakayama R. 7. Kawano R. 41. Takusari Y. 22. Fukui K. 9. Rafael Furtado
Substitutes
7. Kitsui T. 19. Masuda S. 39. Mochizuki S. 41. Nose R. 34. Sakamoto K. 31. Sugawara H. (G) 14. Sumida S. 99. Vinicius Souza 4. Yamashita R.	31. Inose K. (G) 18. Miki K. 36. Nakashio D. 8. Osako R. 4. Shimakawa T. 24. Sugimoto R. 14. Takagi A. 25. Tanaka R. 54. Watahiki K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Sato R. ↓, Masuda S. ↑,
58', Takeuchi T. 🟨,
63', Yamauchi R. ↓, Watahiki K. ↑,
63', Tone R. ↓, Kitsui T. ↑,
63', Woo S. ↓, Sumida S. ↑,
65', 0 - 1, Fukui K. ⚽,
66', Sumida S. 🟨,
66', Tashiro M. 🟨,
75', Shimada T. ↓, Mochizuki S. ↑,
82', Rafael Furtado ↓, Takagi A. ↑,
82', Fukui K. ↓, Sugimoto R. ↑,
85', Sawazaki R. ↓, Vinicius Souza ↑,
89', Kawano R. ↓, Nakashio D. ↑,
90', Nakayama R. ↓, Shimakawa T. ↑,
90+4', 0 - 2, Takagi A. ⚽,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ J2 League and 13).

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Sagamihara may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Sagamihara has had a series of home games.

In this match, Osaka is a strong favorite.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Osaka won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 4:6. (average 0.8:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Osaka won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0. (average 1:0).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Osaka
Japan J3 League
23.08.25	Vanraure Hachinohe - Osaka	1:1 ✺
16.08.25	Thespakusatsu Gunma - Osaka	2:0 ✺
26.07.25	Osaka - Kamatamare Sanuki	2:1 ✺
21.07.25	Kagoshima United - Osaka	2:1 ✺
12.07.25	Osaka - Tegevajaro Miyazaki	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 TLWLT
- SC Sagamihara
Japan Emperors Cup
27.08.25	Sagamihara - Vissel Kobe	1:2 penalties ✺
Japan J3 League
23.08.25	Sagamihara - Giravanz Kitakyushu	1:0 ✺
16.08.25	Kagoshima United - Sagamihara	3:0 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
06.08.25	Sagamihara - Blaublitz Akita	2:1 ET ✺
Japan J3 League
26.07.25	Sagamihara - Tegevajaro Miyazaki	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.5 LWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J3 League
18.05.25	Sagamihara - Osaka	1:2
15.11.24	Osaka - Sagamihara	1:0
03.05.24	Sagamihara - Osaka	0:0
12.11.23	Sagamihara - Osaka	5:0
09.07.23	Osaka - Sagamihara	1:0

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