Match Info

LaLiga - Round 7

Date: 19 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio El Sadar (Pamplona)

Referee: Orellana M. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Osasuna		Rayo Vallecano

	1	X	2
	2.5	3.4	2.8	Watch
	2.70	3.25	2.60
	2.52	3.2	2.85	Watch
	2.6	3.35	2.92
	2.52	3.42	2.79	Watch
	2.55	3.3	2.85
	2.64	3.43	2.9	Watch
	2.44	3.4	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.56 ↑ (2.03)	3.34 ↑ (3.25)	2.81 ↓ (3.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Osasuna
37.4%

Draw
28.6%

Rayo Vallecano
34%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.4%

28.9%

24.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.8%

28.1%

24%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Osasuna has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Osasuna's form might have worsened.

Rayo Vallecano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Rayo Vallecano's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Osasuna than the current prediction. (+10.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Osasuna, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rayo Vallecano than the current prediction. (-10%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Rayo Vallecano, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
36.8%	31.6%	31.6%

Osasuna - Rayo Vallecano Predictions

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Osasuna will win (votes: 7 - 36.8%). Rayo Vallecano will win (votes: 6 - 31.6%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 31.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Osasuna: 15.1% – 58.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Fernandez A. (G) 27. Arguibide I. 29. Osambela A. 24. Catena A. 35. Santos U. 15. Rico D. 14. Garcia R. 7. Moncayola J. 8. Munoz I. 11. Barja K. (C) 17. Budimir A.	25. Audero E. (G) 2. Ratiu A. 15. Sadick M. 24. Lejeune F. 17. Pedrosa A. 8. Lopez U. 6. Ciss P. 23. Valentin O. (C) 19. de Frutos J. 10. Camello S. 18. Garcia A.
Substitutes
30. Bonel A. 22. Boyomo F. 23. Bretones A. 20. Del Castillo R. 21. Dubasin J. 26. Echegoyen M. 9. Garcia R. 1. Herrera S. (G) 18. Moro R. 31. Rafa (G) 6. Torro L. 48. Yeboah R.	9. Alemao 20. Balliu I. 37. Belaid R. 36. Bouare G. 1. Cardenas D. (G) 26. de las Sias M. 4. Diaz P. 22. Fernandez P. 3. Kumbulla M. 21. Perez F. 14. Tsitaishvili G.
Coaches
Ramis L. M.	San Jose B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
16', 1 - 0, Budimir A. ⚽,
21', Osambela A. 🟨,
25', Ciss P. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
51', 1 - 1, Camello S. ⚽, Pedrosa A. (A),
56', Barja K. ↓, Moro R. ↑,
56', Rico D. ↓, Bretones A. ↑,
60', Valentin O. ↓, Diaz P. ↑,
67', Moncayola J. 🟨,
69', Moncayola J. ↓, Torro L. ↑,
69', Garcia R. ↓, Dubasin J. ↑,
71', Camello S. ↓, Tsitaishvili G. ↑,
72', de Frutos J. ↓, Alemao ↑,
72', Santos U. ↓, Garcia R. ↑,
77', Herrera S. 🟨,
87', Lopez U. ↓, Bouare G. ↑,
87', Garcia A. ↓, Balliu I. ↑,
90+6', Alemao 🟨,

Preview

A tightly contested fixture between two evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 13th and 11th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Osasuna won 2.

Both teams have shown inconsistent performances in recent matches.

Rayo Vallecano could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

Confirmed absences for Osasuna: Gomez M. (Hamstring Injury) Herrando J. (Muscle Injury) Oroz A. (Muscle Injury).

Confirmed absences for Rayo Vallecano: Batalla A. (Broken calfbone) Palazon I. (Muscle Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Osasuna: Rosier V. (Hamstring Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Rayo Vallecano: Luiz Felipe (Hamstring Injury) Nteka R. (Muscle Injury) Vertrouwd J. (Muscle Injury).

In the last 17 head-to-head meetings, Osasuna has recorded 9 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses, with a goal aggregate of 26:21 (averaging 1.5:1.2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Osasuna against this opponent, the record stands at 6 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses, with 12:4 goals (averaging 1.5:0.5 per game).

Outrights of Spanish LaLiga for now

Rayo Vallecano: 0.14% Osasuna: 0.14%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
13	Rayo Vallecano	7	2	2	3	11:16	-5	8
14	Osasuna	7	2	2	3	6:13	-7	8

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Osasuna
Spanish LaLiga
16.09.26	Atlético Madrid - Osasuna	4:0 ✺
12.09.26	Osasuna - Espanyol	0:2 ✺
06.09.26	Deportivo Alavés - Osasuna	5:2 ✺
31.08.26	Osasuna - Getafe	1:0 ✺
27.08.26	Celta de Vigo - Osasuna	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 LLLWW
- Rayo Vallecano
Spanish LaLiga
15.09.26	Rayo Vallecano - Espanyol	2:1 ✺
12.09.26	Real Madrid - Rayo Vallecano	4:1 ✺
05.09.26	Rayo Vallecano - Racing Santander	3:2 ✺
31.08.26	Barcelona - Rayo Vallecano	5:2 ✺
20.08.26	Rayo Vallecano - Deportivo Alavés	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 WLWLT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga
24.01.26	Rayo Vallecano - Osasuna	1:3
14.09.25	Osasuna - Rayo Vallecano	2:0
19.01.25	Osasuna - Rayo Vallecano	1:1
16.09.24	Rayo Vallecano - Osasuna	3:1
20.04.24	Rayo Vallecano - Osasuna	2:1
15.12.23	Osasuna - Rayo Vallecano	1:0
14.04.23	Rayo Vallecano - Osasuna	2:1

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